Anytime touchdown scorer bets are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor-to-questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer.
Still, there are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market, and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ NFL player projections and player prop finder tool, which allows you to line shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbook in a flash.
Let’s dive into Week 3 and see what the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for the first big slate of the season.
Week 3 NFL TD Props
De’Von Achane Anytime TD (+125; bet365)
I know it’s early in the season, but I think we’ve already to the point of Achane being a weekly “blind bet” at these prices (+100 or better). While there was some worry that Mike McDaniel just viewed the star RB as a change of pace or receiving weapon, per our Utilization Report, that is no longer the case.
Achane has taken the only inside-the-5-yard-line carry thus far for Miami and his rush rate rose to 70% in Week with Raheem Mostert out. Mostert started the week as limited in practice, so he could return, but Achane still scored an 8.3 (out of 10) Utilization Score in his first game with Mostert on the field.
On the other side of this game is Seattle, whose rush defense allowed 5.84 yards per carry and allowed rushing TD to the Patriots lead RB Rhamondre Stevenson. They also have some key defensive players on the injury report this week like DT Leonard Williams, who is one of their best run-stoppers.
We know Achane can score from distance, especially against a weaker run unit like Seattle’s, but he’s also now the favorite to get short-down-and-distance work. Honestly, we may see him listed as low as -200 at some point this year if this continues, so soak up all the +100 or better for his anytime TD props now while you can.
Chuba Hubbard Anytime TD (+160; bet365)
Hubbard looked great running the ball last week, averaging 6.4 yards per carry against the Chargers. Some of that work came with the game already out of hand but Hubbard is (easily) the Panthers best early-down option and saw a bump in usage in Week 2, with a 59% rush rate.
It’s early in the year and the Panthers offense has been behind by two or more scores nearly the entire time they have been on the field, but it’s hard to see the coaching staff in Carolina not committing a little more toward Hubbard this week.
Making that decision easier for them is the fact we have the Raiders on the schedule, who have allowed 6.1 yards per carry so far (second-worst mark in the league) and ceded a rushing TD to an RB in each of their first two games.
This is a little bit of a vibes play, but the combination of Andy Dalton plus a matchup with the Raiders has me thinking Hubbard likely gets some cracks inside the five-yard line this week. He’s also a player I like going over his 48.5 rush-yard total, a bet I also logged in our tracker, along with all of my other free NFL bets.
Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+300; FanDuel)
Ferguson missed last week with a knee injury but returned to practice this Wednesday and looks on track to play against the Ravens. It’s a good spot for the Cowboys TE to return to, as the Ravens coverage against TEs this year has been abysmal.
In Week 1, Baltimore allowed the Chiefs TE group to go for 6 receptions and 71 yards, and last week allowed rookie Brock Bowers to land 9 receptions and 98 yards in his breakout game. None of the opposing TEs from those games scored, but it's clear that the Ravens aren’t scheming to stop the TE position on a weekly basis.
Ferguson had a solid 19% target share in Week 1 and while he’ll be splitting some time with second-year player Luke Schoonmaker, I fully expect Ferguson to take the majority of reps as the main pass catcher if he’s healthy.
With his injury status still up in the air, Ferguson’s TD prices have inflated up to +300 in spots, making him a nice buy-low target for this week.
There is some injury and usage risk involved with him coming off an injury, but with the bigger prices, the risk is worth the reward.
Blake Corum Anytime TD (+1200; bet365)
It took a while for the Rams to deploy Blake Corum, but, now that they have, I find it hard to believe they’ll just relegate him right back to the bench. Corum only averaged 3.5 yards per carry against Arizona (8 carries, 28 yards), but he was still more efficient than Kyren Williams and looked notably fast and powerful on his chances.
The Rams are set as +7.5 underdogs and only have an implied team total of 18.75, but they are also facing a banged-up 49ers squad that allowed a rushing TD in Week 1 to Breece Hall.
This is a mostly speculative play, but it’s also worth noting that HC Sean McVay did talk up Corum a bit after the loss, stating that he wants to get Corum “going a little bit more”.
Remember, McVay worked in Kyren Williams in a near full split in Week 1 last season, despite Cam Akers being the “feature back” (Akers would eventually tear his Achilles, but McVay gave Williams work before that happened).
The Rams have nothing to lose by giving Corum more opportunities at this point and at +1000 or better, his TD prop really doesn’t have any upside or increased usage baked in. He makes sense at these levels as a longshot play for Week 3.
