Welcome to the third edition of the 2024 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Geoff Ulrich and I dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL. 

First off, I just want to say: This is a safe space. The Betting Life team loads a ton of bets in our FREE Bet Tracker every week, and trust us, we don’t just do it for show. As much as we espouse the long-term profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose… especially on the bets we should have won!). 

Week 3 wasn’t full of “bad beats” in the truest sense of the word. There were no real miraculous covers, no last-second disasters and no massive swings in variance. That said, it’s not going to stop us from complaining!

If you want a more specific breakdown of some of the biggest missed fantasy opportunities, also be sure to read Ian Hartitz’s “Sheesh Report,” a weekly feature of heartbreaking videos and stats, like Devin Singletary taking a dive for his fantasy owners:

Ulrich’s Bad Beat No. 1: The Atlanta Falcons hate FGs (and your spread bet)

The Falcons took the Chiefs to the limit on Sunday Night. They had the ball deep in KC territory twice late in the game but saw both drives end on failed fourth-down conversions. The result was extra painful for Falcons spread bettors, as Atlanta could have covered the spread (+4.0 to +3.0 depending on when you bet it) and potentially won the game if they had just settled for a FG on the first late drive when they had a fourth and goal from the Chiefs' 6-yard line. 

First, I fully admit that there is a decent argument that this one isn’t that bad of a beat since being aggressive on that fourth and 6 was, statistically, the correct call. Ben Baldwin, an NFL analytics expert, runs a fourth-down decision/win probability bot that showcased the edge the Falcons got from being aggressive in that spot.

However, just given how the game had played out to that point, I still think the argument for settling for the FG in that spot was sound. Not only did the Falcons have three timeouts left, but their defense had done a solid job vs. the Chiefs offense all night, limiting Patrick Mahomes to just 5.5 yards per attempt and the Chiefs rushing game to well under 4.0 YPC. 

Hindsight is always 20/20 in these spots, but the majority of NFL coaches are somewhat “risk-adverse." I’d say that most coaches (maybe as high as 80% of them) would choose the FG on fourth and 6 with over four minutes remaining — and a defense performing well at home. 

Of course, why kick FGs when you’re Raheem Morris and can just get the ball back and have your QB call stretch runs on fourth and inches on your next drive to end the game? 

As you can probably tell, I was on Atlanta in this spot, and I’m sour. I took them early in the week at +3.5 and felt good as the line closed at 3.0. Unfortunately, all the closing line value in the world can’t stop Patrick Mahomes from winning games. This time, his end of game luck also meant my Falcons spread bet went down the drain, along with the Falcons' chances of winning two straight in primetime. 

LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 1: Is Survivor Ever Going to Get Easier?

If this is your first year playing in a survivor league, I feel bad for you. It’s really not supposed to be this difficult. The strategy is typically pretty simple. Pick one of the big home favorites and hope that the team pulls out a victory.

Unfortunately, it has been nothing close to simple this season.

It started in Week 1, with the Bengals knocking out roughly one-third of entries right off the bat. In Week 2, another 40%-plus went down with the Ravens, Lions and Cowboys. Three of those teams were favored by more than a touchdown, and not only did they fail to cover, they couldn’t even win the game.

That left a smaller group of remaining entries than usual heading into Week 3. The four most popular choices in the Circa pool were the Bengals, Buccaneers, Browns and Raiders, combining for approximately 80% of the week’s picks:

All four teams went down. They weren’t even particularly competitive, losing by a combined 44 points to the Broncos, Giants, Commanders, and Panthers.

If you have managed to avoid the reaper’s sickle, where do you even go at this point? No one seems truly safe in 2024. Just ask Freedman:

There are some big favorites on the board in Week 4, so I can’t wait to write about how they savage a large chunk of the remaining teams after they inevitably lose.

Ulrich’s Bad Beat No. 2: Bo Nix Legacy Game – Cancelled

This is another one of those “bad beats” where I actually profited but could have profited so much more if Tampa Bay, which was a -6.0 favorite in this game, could have just been “competitive." 

Long story short, I really liked Bo Nix passing overs this week. LaMarca and I discussed the prop in depth on the Betting Life Podcast (which you should totally download and leave a five star review for) and I bet and gave out Nix’s alternative passing yard lines in my list of ladder bets for the week. 

Things really could not have started out better either. Nix went 4of-4 for 70 passing yards on his first drive of the game and by the end of half had 171 yards. But there was trouble brewing, not on the Denver side of the ball with Nix, who was operating efficiently, but with -6.5 favorite Tampa Bay. 

The Buccaneers simply could not move the ball. Baker Mayfield, who had thrown 9.6 yards per attempt in his first two games, averaged just 4.93 yards per attempt against Denver and was sacked seven times. Further, Tampa’s run defense, which has been spotty, started allowing huge runs to someone named Tyler Badie (Bay-dee) in the second half, when they should have been selling out to stuff the run and try top get the ball back. 

Once you added in a couple long QB scrambles to this Tyler Badie breakout, it gave the Broncos few reasons to drop back and pass in the second half. Nix only added 46 passing yards after his hot start to end at 216 passing yards, which did allow me to hit the over on his 181.5 yard prop and the 200+ alt line but left me short of the big paydays at 250+ and 300+. 

LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 2: Half a Freakin’ Yard?!?

Every Thursday, Geoff and I record a prop-focused edition of the Betting Life Podcast. It’s a fun show, and for the most part it’s been profitable this season.

To wrap up each edition, we both build out a Sleeper card. I typically like to go with a “game stack,” meaning I target a few different players from a single game. That gives you the added benefit of some correlation.

For Week 3, I was focused on Texans-Vikings. I settled on this beauty:

  • Sam Darnold More Than 1.5 Touchdown Passes
  • Tank Dell 50+ Receiving Yards
  • Justin Jefferson More Than 81.5 Receiving Yards

Darnold and Dell both held up their end of the bargain, so all I needed was the best receiver in football to get to 82 yards. He had done that in eight of his past 12 regular season contests, and if you remove the ones where he left early due to injury, it was more like eight out of 10.

Jefferson caught his sixth pass of the day with just over one minute to go in the second quarter. That put him at 81 yards. All he needed was one more catch and we were in the clear.

You know how the story ends. Jefferson had just two targets in the second half, and he failed to catch either of them. He finished at six catches for 81 yards, giving us the most painful of losses.

Losing by the hook always hurts. Doesn’t matter if it’s a prop, spread or total. But losing by the hook on a three-leg Sleeper card with a nearly 7x payout? That really hurts. Darnold and the Vikes did manage to at least win me a spread bet, but I still feel like he owes me one.