Welcome to Week 3 of Betting Life’s NFL Survivor Series! It’s the inimitable Coach Gene Clemons and yours truly, John Laghezza, right here every Thursday with our thoughts, takes and picks to help you outwit, outlast, and outplay the competition.

First up: Laghezza surveys the landscape

The biggest favorites always make the best Survivor starting point. So who’s laying the heaviest Week 3 wood? Five teams (four at home) enter mid-week implying win rates just three out of four…

  • CIN vs WAS: (-360); 78.3% Implied Probability
  • SF @ LAR: (-345); 77.5% Implied Probability
  • TB vs DEN: (-325); 76.5% Implied Probability
  • CLE vs NYG: (-285); 74.0% Implied Probability
  • NYJ vs NE: (-285); 74.0% Implied Probability

You can see all the Week odds on FantasyLife.com

Who’s the public on? Four teams aggregate at or near a double-digit selection rate

  • TB vs DEN : ~25% Selected — Next 3 vs PHI, @ ATL, @ NO
  • LV vs CAR: ~23% Selected — Next 3 vs CLE, @ DEN, vs PIT
  • CLE vs NYG: ~13% Selected — Next 3 @ LA, @ WAS, @ PHI
  • CIN vs WAS: ~11% Selected — Next 3 @ CAR, vs BAL, vs NYG

Note: I pull these numbers and aggregate from several sources, including numberfire, SurvivorGrid, and my own projections.

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Gene's Take

It was a bloody Sunday for NFL Survivor leagues around the world. An unprecedented eight favorites lost in Week 2. The more anomalous stat is that six of the eight teams that lost were home teams — and of those eight teams, six were 2023 playoff participants. On top of that, all eight were expected to make playoff pushes this season. So what happened? In the immortal words of the legendary Chris Berman, “That’s why they play the game!”

If you rolled with my choice of Baltimore you were air high-fiving me into the fourth quarter of that game. The Ravens were up double digits after a nine-play, 76-yard touchdown drive. Unfortunately for all of us, the defense disappeared after that and the offense went far too conservative, which produced back-to-back 3-and-out series. In the end a desperation scramble that turned into the fumblerooski was not enough to save us from the rebuy.

Gene Rebuys!

Why rebuy? you may ask. Because hopefully the payout from your league is worth it; plus, it's still so early. You made the right choice, it was just the wrong outcome. That is what we need to hold onto. Also, we have more information now. Armed with this information, we should be able to cultivate multiple choices that yield wins — not simply for the coming week, but for the subsequent weeks, as well. If you felt good about your selection, you just got unlucky — why would you not want back in? I certainly feel that way with Baltimore.

Laghezza's Takeaways From Week 2

My main Week 2 takeaway? Chasing odds gets you burned. Also, not to be that guy (I’m going to be that guy) one point of focus we covered bubbled to the surface Sunday — QB play matters more than anything. I don’t mean to use 20/20 hindsight but Week 1 left clues. Both the Saints (beat DAL) and the Buccaneers (beat DET) balled out enough on offense to mark as avoids. The few well-oiled offenses turned out to be no fluke.

Baltimore made for a much less predictable tough break, but also taught us a lesson regarding the power of star-play. Brock Bowers looked like the league’s best TE for 60 minutes, the tape’s just incredible. He proved too much working underneath as a complement to alpha Davante Adams, while Maxx Crosby played the every-down game-wrecker on D with a pair of huge sacks.

Speaking of the black and silver, converting every money line (below) into win percentages left me especially interested in Las Vegas’ line. The public seems to be buying into a bullish continuation for the Raiders off that big upset win. Yet the (-5.5) line ATS versus a very bad Carolina team says maybe a reversal’s coming. Could it be time to pump the brakes?

Frankly, I think we’re seeing one of my core Survivor theories in action —the undersold value of quarterback play as the Panthers shift to Andy Dalton. That said, as much as I want to side with the house, I watched every Raiders snap and the defense, anchored by Crosby, creates so much havoc I can’t see Vegas beating these Panthers by less than a TD.

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Laghezza's Week 3 Survivor Pick

Heave ho, two in a row for the good guys. Almost feels like a miracle to still be alive by Week 3 and I’m not taking it for granted. I understand the theory of looking ahead but let me ask you… how did that work out for anyone who got cute last week?

Sure, I expect all the top plays to move on if modeled from a median outcome — but there’s at least one aspect or major matchup worrying me in every game… except one. Sadly, teams (and bettors) plan while the injury gods laugh — and no team’s been more brutalized than the Rams.

Missing half the starting offense already to health — and Hall of Famer Aaron Donald to retirement — the Rams’ 2024 may be finished. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if they moved Matthew Stafford. Things continue to spiral for the Rams’ defense; they currently boast the league’s worst spot in yards/game, yards/play, and EPA/play. They’re hosting the Niners in the most obvious bounceback spot this season.

San Fran’s in a different class than L.A. without Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. Sure I’m using a premium piece with SF but the way this season’s gone, I’d be surprised if we’re still playing Survivor by Thanksgiving.

(It worked last week so I asked A.I. to generate an image of my prediction):

Gene's Week 3 Survivor Pick

At this point, you have to ask yourself if you know who the worst teams in the league are, and if it's possible to ride their hopelessness to a win. A couple teams to monitor are the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants. 

Although both were competitive in Week 2, neither were playing juggernauts. It's fair to ask yourself who are they beating. The Broncos have the Bucs, Jets, Raiders and Saints to face and the Giants have the Browns, Cowboys, Seahawks, Bengals, Eagles, and Steelers. I can't predict where a win will happen for them anytime soon. But they are not the worst teams in the NFL — that prize goes to the Carolina Panthers who, after two weeks, decided to bench starting quarterback Bryce Young — who's had three head coaches and offensive coordinators in 19 games — in favor of veteran Andy Dalton.

While it's convenient to scapegoat Young, this team has issues all over the place — mainly on defense, where they can stop gas from passing or water from rushing. They face the Raiders, Bengals and Bears, none of which are the elites of the league, but the Raiders will definitely be looking at the Panthers as an opportunity to get on a winning streak. 

The Raiders will not have the luxury of underestimating the Panthers because they know what it is like to be underestimated and how they were able to respond. Carolina has been terrible against the run, allowing the Saints to rush for 180 yards and the Chargers to rush for 219 . The Raiders should be able to get their run game going, which will only make Gardner Minshew more comfortable running the offense; when he does, he has success. 

Carolina is a mess and they will need to prove that their dysfunction is a product of how bad the quarterback was. I have a sneaking suspicion it is not. Just Win Baby! Let’s go with the Raiders!