Before we get into my Week 4 best bets, let's look at last week.

It was the best week I've had for best bets so far.

  • Jets-Patriots Under 38.5: Easy.
  • Eagles +3 at Saints: Wrong team favored.
  • Packers +3 at Titans: #RevengeGame.
  • Cardinals +3 vs. Lions: Can't win them all.

In summary, I was 3-1 (+1.85 units), which brings me to 6-7 (-1.5 units) for the year, which I'm OK with considering how poorly I performed in Week 2.

If you had made these bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker—before I wrote my Week 3 article—then you would've made an extra 20 cents (+2.05 units).

In any given week, that might not seem like a lot, but over the course of a season it would be nice to get an extra 0.2 units every seven days—and that's why you should regularly check out our bets in the tracker, where we place the bets we're making right as we make them, when they're likely to provide the most value.

And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections.

You can get 10% off with the promo code FREEDMAN.

Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Alright … let's get into Week 4.

Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.

  1. Brief notes on my favorite bets.
  2. Briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
  3. The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
  4. The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).

And when I say "brief notes" and "briefer notes," today I actually mean it. I've got a flight to catch, and my editors could use a break from proofreading long pieces.

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Week 4 NFL Bets to Target

Here are my favorite bets currently available.

  • Cowboys -5.5 at Giants (-110, BetMGM)
  • Colts +114 vs. Steelers (FanDuel)
  • Raiders -104 vs. Browns (FanDuel)
  • Dolphins -104 vs. Titans (FanDuel)

Odds and projections as of Wed. 9/25 at 2:30 am ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.

Cowboys -5.5 at Giants (-110, BetMGM)

The lookahead line was -7 at most sportsbooks, and I don't know if we actually saw enough last week to justify a move off that number.

The Cowboys lost, but they lost to the Ravens (one of the league's best teams), and the final margin was just three points (even though they had some luck to get there). The Giants won, but they beat the Browns (a disappointing team), and they won by just six points, whereas the Cowboys defeated the Browns by 16 in Week 1.

Within the division, QB Dak Prescott is 29-11 ATS (41.0% ROI, per Action Network).

  • Bet in Tracker: -6.5 (-105, Lookahead)
  • Projection: -7.25

Colts +114 vs. Steelers (FanDuel)

Heading into Week 3, the Colts and Steelers had almost identical values in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings.

  • Colts: -1.59
  • Steelers: -1.53

And coming out of Week 3, I have both teams power-rated at the league average … except the Colts are at home and dealing with fewer injuries, and the Steelers are playing their third road game in four weeks.

  • Bet in Tracker: +110 (bet365)
  • Projection: -122.1

Raiders -104 vs. Browns (FanDuel)

It's possible that QB Gardner Minshew is better than QB Deshaun Watson at this point in their careers: They have comparable ATS values, and Minshew has the better numbers (6.8 AY/A vs. 5.7) over the past four years.

And while I have the Browns power-rated as the superior team, they're on the road and very much not themselves due to injuries, especially in the trenches, where they could be without LT Jedrick Wills (knee), RT Jack Conklin (knee), RG Wyatt Teller (knee), and backup OT James Hudson (shoulder) on offense and 2023 DPOY EDGE Myles Garrett (foot) on defense.

Minus that muscle, the Browns could get pushed around on both sides of the ball.

  • Bet in Tracker: -104 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: -129.2

Dolphins -104 vs. Titans (FanDuel)

Last week, I liked the Packers against the Titans because I thought that 1) they had a significant coaching advantage and 2) the market was discounting them too much because they had a backup QB.

This week, I like the Dolphins against the Titans because I think that 1) they have a significant coaching advantage and 2) the market is discounting them too much because they have a backup QB.

For the Dolphins, HC Mike McDaniel has been one of the league's most innovative offensive playcallers over the past two-plus seasons. Compare him to Titans HC Brian Callahan, who isn't just a rookie coach. He's also a first-time NFL playcaller. In other words, he's trying to do two jobs he has never done before—and now in his fourth game balancing both jobs, he's going against one of the league's better coaches.

As for the QB position, we've seen the market overreact to injuries over the past few years and regularly adjust the spread by 1-2 points too much. Whether it's Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, or Tyler Huntley who starts for the Dolphins, I think that guy won't be much worse than Titans QB Will Levis, who has proven his ability over the past three weeks to give games away with turnovers (five INTs, three fumbles lost).

With a notable coaching edge and probably overstated QB deficit, the Dolphins at home should probably be favored.

  • Bet in Tracker: -104 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: -129

NFL Games That Have My Attention in Week 4

  • Jets -7.5 vs. Broncos: There are lots of teaser legs this week, and this one is probably my favorite of the favored teams. I also like under 38.5 (-110).
     
  • Packers -2.5 vs. Vikings: I expect QB Jordan Love (knee) to play, and HC Matt LaFleur is 29-16 ATS (23.6% ROI) at home.
     
  • Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Eagles: The Bucs seem reasonable as a teaser leg given how injured the Eagles are on offense.
     
  • Texans-Jaguars Under 45.5: This feels high considering the Jags are yet to score more than 17 points this year.
     
  • Chargers-Chiefs Under 39.5: I doubt QB Justin Herbert (ankle) will play for the Chargers, who are 3-0 (90.9% ROI) to the under.

Contest Picks for NFL Week 4

Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.

I went 3-2 in each of Weeks 1-3 to amass a 9-6 record. Frankly, I'm glad it's not worse. That has me at No. 408 of 3,637 entries and currently finishing in the money.

If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 4, these might be the ones (based on the contests, consensus, and sharp lines, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).

  • Texans -6.5 vs. Jaguars: Consensus -7
  • Bears -2.5 vs. Rams: Sharp -3
  • Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Eagles: Sharp +2
  • Patriots +10.5 at 49ers: Consensus +10
  • Chargers +8.5 vs. Chiefs: Sharp +8

I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines move.

Week 4 Survivor Picks

Alas, I did not survive the Week 3 carnage.

I knew that the Bengals, Buccaneers, and Raiders were all risky picks … so instead I selected the Browns.

Ouch.

Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 4.

  • Texans (-7) vs. Jaguars: The Jags have looked lifeless through three weeks.
     
  • Jets (-7.5) vs. Broncos: Let's be honest … this isn't a real option, because anyone still in the contest has a decent chance of having used the Jets last week.
     
  • 49ers (-10) vs. Patriots: The Patriots have three extra days of rest, and the 49ers are still notably injured.
     
  • Cowboys (-5.5) at Giants: Gotta save the Cowboys for Thanksgiving.
     
  • Chiefs (-8) at Chargers: Gotta save the Chiefs for Christmas.

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Points Per Game (PPG)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous NFL Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.