One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number–also known as closing-line value–it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 4 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Pittsburgh Steelers ML at Indianapolis Colts
- Current Line: -112; FanDuel
- Bet To: -125
It’s officially time to sound the panic button for Anthony Richardson. The Colts managed to pick up their first win of the season in Week 3, but it was in spite of their starting quarterback. He completed just 10 of 20 passes with 2 interceptions, bringing his tally to 6 picks for the year.
If not for 3 turnovers from Chicago, the Colts likely would not have been in a position to take home the win. The Bears outgained the Colts by nearly 100 yards, including more than 175 through the air.
That is not a good formula for winning football games. Your quarterback has to be able to make the throws that move the chains, and Richardson has not been able to do that so far this season.
I don’t expect things to get any easier for him vs. the Steelers. Their defense has looked excellent through the first three weeks. They absolutely smothered Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Week 3, limiting them to just 168 yards of total offense.
The Steelers are already listed at -120 on BetMGM, and I think this number will rise throughout the week. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers close at closer to -3.0, so there’s value in grabbing them early on the moneyline.
New England Patriots (+10.5) at San Francisco 49ers
- Current Line: -115; FanDuel
- Bet To: +10.0 (-115)
We’re not necessarily looking to protect a key number with this bet but rather protect against injury information. The 49ers were extremely banged up heading into Week 3. They were without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, and they ended up losing a game to the Rams where they were favored by more than a touchdown.
The Rams are definitely better than the Patriots, but without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, it might not be by as much as you think. If the Rams can contend without their two best offensive weapons—and a few offensive linemen—why can’t the Pats keep things competitive?
They’ll have the benefit of some extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, and the 49ers are still expected to be without McCaffrey and Samuel. Kittle might be able to return to the lineup, but this is still a weaker form of the 49ers’ offense than we saw for most of last year.
Despite what we saw from the Patriots against the Jets, they’ve been competitive for most of the year. That was simply an awful spot for them. They were playing on short rest against a superior team, and they were coming off an overtime contest. They fell into a hole early, and they simply don’t have the offensive firepower to play from behind. Things could look totally different vs. the 49ers.
This has historically been a really great spot to target. With at least 10 days between games, Underdogs of at least 7 points have posted a record of 58-45-1 ATS against teams on normal rest. Underdogs of at least a touchdown have smashed in general to start the 2024-25 season, posting a perfect 3-0 record ATS.
I like the idea of locking this number in now and securing the 10.5. There is no real upside to waiting unless you think this number gets to 14—which shouldn’t happen—but there’s some downside if it gets below 10.
Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins
- Current Line: -110; BetMGM
- Play To: +1.0 (-115)
The Titans have been one of the worst teams in football to start the season. They’ve lost three straight games by at least a touchdown, with the latter two coming at home. That makes them 0-3 both straight up and against the spread, which is not a situation that many teams find themselves in historically. Only 33 teams fit that criteria since 2005, so it works out to roughly one or two per year.
Historically, those teams have been good investments in Week 4. That’s not surprising. The worst teams in football tend to become undervalued in the betting market, and those 33 squads have a combined 18-12-3 ATS record in Week 4. That alone is enough to put the Titans on the radar.
That said, that’s not the only reason to support the Titans in Week 4. They’ve been extremely unfortunate to start the season, and I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as their record suggests.
They were clearly the better team in Week 1 vs. Chicago, limiting Caleb Williams and the Bears to less than 150 yards of total offense. They also outgained their opponent in Week 2, with the Jets managing 265 yards. Overall, no team allowed fewer yards during the first two weeks than the Titans, who somehow allowed the ninth-most points.
The biggest culprit for their underperformance has been Will Levis. He hasn’t just played poorly; he’s actively sabotaged them with bad turnovers. He had 2 more picks vs. the Packers in Week 3, bringing him to 5 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles through just 3 games. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if the team decided to bench him before their matchup vs. the Dolphins in Week 4. Even if Levis remains the quarterback, he’s going to be on a short leash moving forward.
As long as Levis doesn’t hand the game to the Dolphins, they should be able to compete in Week 4. The Dolphins are without Tua Tagovailoa, and they might be without backup Skylar Thompson as well. He left with an injury in Week 3, forcing Tim Boyle to take over vs. the Seahawks. In case you need a reminder, Boyle is the guy with an 0-5 record as a starter who put together one of the worst performances in history with the Jets last year.
I have had a bad track record fading backups so far this season, but fading Malik Willis and Matt LaFleur is a lot different than fading Thompson or Boyle. I’ll take my chances with the Titans in this spot.
