Week 4 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets For Seahawks @ Giants.
Monday Night Football brings us a matchup of two misfit-type teams in Week 4.
It seems like forever ago that the Giants were getting blown out in another primetime matchup last Thursday night in San Francisco. New York comes into the week well rested, with a 1-2 record but carrying a boat anchor of a -55.0 point differential that ranks second-worst in the NFL after three weeks.
If you think New York is lucky to be where they are, record-wise, you would be right. Outside of the two quarters against Arizona, where they staged a miraculous comeback, the Giants have been outclassed every step of the way. They’re 26th in yards per pass attempt against and 31st in overall defensive DVOA.
Daniel Jones is also struggling across the board. He’s the fourth-most sacked QB in the league, and his yards per attempt metric is a full yard below his career averages. While the talent on this team is enticing, to a degree, their record from 2022 is looking more and more fraudulent by the week.
On the other side, Seattle has played inspired football after an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Rams. Seattle comes in 2-1 on the season but has had their struggles in certain portions of the game as well. They only have a -1.0 point differential on the season – despite the winning record – and their passing defense remains a sore spot after they allowed 361 yards last week to Panthers’ backup Andy Dalton.
So what do we do with these two want-to-be-contender teams in Week 4? We break down the game, spread, and player props below:
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
- Spread: Seahawks -1.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 47.0
- Moneylines: Seahawks -125 / Giants +105
Both of these defenses rank well below average in overall defensive DVOA, so we should be giving the over a look right off the bat. Both teams also rank above average in PROE (pass rate over expectation), and with Saquon Barkley (doubtful) likely not suiting up for New York, their run game will probably peter out at some point.
As far as the spread goes, as much as I’d like to give New York one more shot, Seattle (-1.5) should be in a good spot to keep things rolling.
Geno Smith has been the far better of the two signal callers, and his game against Detroit, when Seattle was down two starting offensive linemen, remains one of the best of the year. Smith regressed a bit last week (296-1-1) but has found an excellent connection with DK Metcalf, who came through big for Seattle against Carolina with a 6-112 line and an 18.67 yards per catch average. Metcalf is in another great spot in Week 4 against a Giants secondary starting two rookies at cornerback in Tre Hawkins and Deonte Banks.
Sep 10, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
The Seahawks' defense will likely make this game interesting, but they are getting safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Riq Woolen back for this game – neither of whom were on the injury report this week. When you pair a slight boost on that side of the ball with the intangibles Smith brings at QB, it will likely be enough to hand the Saquon-less Giants another L.
If you can’t stomach the spread on either of these teams, don’t worry; we break down the props and some same-game parlay action below.
Player Props
Jaxon-Smith Ngiba over 28.5 receiving yards (-110; BetMGM)
If you’re frustrated with how the Seahawks are using Smith-Njigba, you’re likely not alone. Considering his overall talent level, his 2.38-yard aDOT and 4% air yards share are almost laughable.
The Giants have a very young and inexperienced secondary, and with DK Metcalf hogging up the outside targets – and attention – there really couldn’t be a better spot for Smith-Ngiba to find some room over the middle and break free for some significant gains.
Our aggregate projections have him set at 37.5 yards, making this a solid edge.
Darren Waller over 47.5 receiving yards (-115; BetRivers)
Waller has been less than advertised to date, but two of his three games have been against top-five defenses (one being a blowout of epic proportions).
In the one fast-paced, close game we saw him in, he cruised over this number by a long shot, posting 7-76 against Arizona.
New York Giants tight end Darren Waller (12) catches a ball during the game against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, September 10, 2023.
Seattle getting Adams back may be good for their morale, but it’s also good news for Waller given how poor Adams can be in coverage.
I’d look for the Giants to exploit that matchup whenever they can this week.
Same-Game Parlay
I’m keeping this one relatively simple.
We included the two receiving props from up above (whose totals looked a little light) and added Seattle to cover the -1.5 spread, with a Kenneth Walker TD pick mixed in.
We have some solid correlation with the Walker TD/Seattle win, as there is a far better chance the Seahawks come out victorious if Walker scores. He’s found the endzone twice thus far, in each Seahawks victory.
You can always play these props independently, but if you’re looking to take a swing at a bigger payout, I like how these ones line up. Good Luck!
We’ll be back on Thursday for another prime-time matchup breakdown, but until then, don’t forget to check out the free picks on our bet tracker and other great betting tools we have on the site.
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