Welcome to the Week 4 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Geoff Ulrich and I, Matt LaMarca, dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL. 

First off, I just want to say: This is a safe space. The Betting Life team loads a ton of bets in our FREE Bet Tracker every week, and trust us, we don’t just do it for show. As much as we espouse the long-term profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose… especially on the bets we should have won!). 

Week 4 wasn’t full of “bad beats” in the truest sense of the word. There were no real miraculous covers, no last-second disasters, and no massive swings in variance. That said, it’s not going to stop us from complaining!

If you want a more specific breakdown of some of the biggest missed fantasy opportunities, also be sure to read Ian Hartitz’s “Sheesh Report,” a weekly feature of heartbreaking videos and stats, like Saquon Barkley being underthrown on a potential 70-yard touchdown:

LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 1: Falcons Do It Again

Geoff touched on the Falcons in Week 3, and this week’s “bad beat” wasn’t entirely on them. No, I blame myself for losing this wager just as much as I blame Atlanta.

For starters, I broke my first rule of sports betting: Get the best of the number. I simply waited too long to lock in a play on the Falcons this week. I liked them when they were first announced as small home favorites vs. the Saints, but I didn’t decide to place my wager until Saturday night. It was at that point when Chris Olave’s status was still up in the air, and that was the final determining factor that got me to pull the trigger.

Of course, Olave ended up playing, so I gained absolutely nothing by making the play when I did.

Still, I had the Falcons at -2.5. With three being the most important key number in NFL betting, I didn’t think there was a huge difference between getting -1.5 and -2.5.

We all know what happened next. The Saints took a one-point lead with one minute left, but the Falcons ended up driving down for a game-winning Younghoe Koo field goal. Falcons win by 2; Matt loses by 0.5.

It’s just another example of why getting the best number is essential. The concept of “key numbers” is changing with the increased difficulty of extra points and coaches going for two with increased frequency. This game was ultimately a good, expensive reminder of why getting every point — not just key numbers — is vital.

Ulrich’s Bad Beat No. 1: Kyle Really Is the Pitts

Going into Sunday, there were some low receiving lines I loaded up on, one of which turned out to be the over on Kyle Pitts’ receiving yards (final line: 3 targets; 0 rec., 0 yards). Look, I know/knew the story with Pitts before this game. He’s a perennial underachiever who had been attached to a conservative offense the past couple of seasons, one that was not properly utilizing his talents. 

I also knew he hadn’t exactly had the best start to the season in this new regime, failing to catch more than three passes in each of his first three games. Still, our Utilization Report had Pitts’ route rate at 81% and his target share at 19% the week prior (an improvement over his last start) and he was playing the Saints; who had just allowed 170 yards to TE Dallas Goedert in Week 3. 

With Pitts’ props at season-lows (34.5 yards), I decided not to just bet the over on his regular total but took the over on his alternate lines through 50/75/100 yards. 

The result? Pain. 

Look, this thing may turn around at some point, and Pitts may go for 70-plus yards multiple games in a row, but as of writing it’s pretty clear that there is no rush to get Pitts the ball in Atlanta. When your head coach is asked directly about your performance and he responds by saying “stats are for losers” you can be sure that any Pitts breakout will likely just be a random occurrence and not a direct shift by the staff to better utilize his freakish talents. 

Either way, I’m out on Pitts for now (or at least until this Thursday when he plays the Buccaneers).  

LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 2: Is No Big Favorite Safe?

I should’ve known things were going too well for the Jets. After a Thursday night demolition of the Patriots, everything in New York was looking good. The defense was rolling, Aaron Rodgers was back and Breece Hall and Braelon Allen were the best 1-2 punch in the league at running back. Sure, they had a trip to London looming, but the Broncos couldn’t possibly beat them, right?

Turns out, the lookahead spot was too strong. Favorites of at least four points are now just 12-19 ATS the week before heading to London.

However, the Jets didn’t just fail to cover; they lost the game outright. They lost to a team whose quarterback threw for just 60 yards. Considering that this is 2024 and they weren’t facing a Wishbone offense, that’s embarrassing.

That said, the Jets are far from alone. Before the Chiefs and 49ers took care of business in the afternoon slate, all five favorites of at least seven points this season lost the game straight up:

That has made this season an absolute nightmare for casual bettors. Survivor pools? Decimated. Teasers and moneyline parlays? Forget about it. Underdogs are 9-4-1 ATS in Week 4 heading into Monday Night Football, so it could be a banner week for the dogs if the Titans and Seahawks hold up their end of the bargain.

Ultimately, it’s looking more and more like any team can win — or lose — on a weekly basis in the NFL. Maybe some outliers will emerge, but it’s tough to think about betting any favorites until that happens.

Ulrich’s Bad Beat No. 2: Dalton Kincaid – What Could Have Been

OK, unlike my first bad beat, which may have just been a terrible bet, this one was quite unlucky. Just like Pitts, I took the over on Dalton Kincaid’s reception total this week (3.5) but also went bigger on his alternate lines, playing him through 5+/6+/7+ and 8+ receptions. 

As you can see, the bigger totals paid nicely, with eight or more receptions paying out as much as +1400. The game started brilliantly for me. The Ravens got a TD on their first play, which put the Bills on their heels and forced them out of their run game. Buffalo’s first play on offense was even a pass to Kincaid, who managed three catches on their first two drives. 

Everything was going as planned. Kincaid went quiet for a bit but then ripped off two more catches on a second-half drive with Buffalo down 28-10, and we had life. The Bills had to settle for a FG attempt on that same drive, and it looked like the score might stay close enough for Allen and Kincaid to cook up two or three more catches for me and ship the entire ladder play. 

Sadly, Tyler Bass had other plans, as he shanked his attempt and gave the Ravens the ball back in excellent position, which they took advantage of by scoring and making it 35-10. Ugh. Buffalo put up zero effort into their next drive (three incompletions), and before you knew it Mitch Trubisky was in and the game was over. 

I couldn’t have asked for a better setup with Kincaid against a poor secondary that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to TEs this year, but things just didn’t break my way (despite the game playing out perfectly). Kincaid should have a real breakout game at some point, but I’m not sure his odds will be as juicy going forward, making this a missed opportunity and one of my worst beats from Week 4.