Everyone is talking about the Chiefs traveling to New York for a matchup against the Jets on Sunday Night Football. Of course, almost none of that attention is on the game itself.

If you’re looking for a mostly Taylor Swift-free preview, you’ve come to the right place.

On paper, this should be an absolute demolition by Kansas City. The best QB in the league will be facing off against possibly the worst QB in the league, so this game has the potential to get really ugly. That said, games aren’t played on paper.

Can the Jets manage to keep this game competitive? Let’s break down all the betting angles for the Chiefs at Jets matchup on Sunday night.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets

  • Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (-110; BetMGM)
  • Total: 41.5
  • Moneylines: Chiefs -405 / Jets +320

Let’s start by looking at the spread. This number initially opened at Chiefs -2.5, but that was back when Aaron Rodgers was expected to be under center for the Jets. Once Zach Wilson took over as the starter, the line quickly shot up as high as 9.5 in some places.

Since then, we’ve seen some buy back on the Jets. This line remains at 9.5 at some locations, but it’s down to just 8.5 on BetMGM. That’s due to some sharp activity siding with Gang Green. The public unsurprisingly wants nothing to do with New York, but the Jets have received 36% of the spread dollars on just 18% of the tickets per the Action Network.

The Jets were expected to have a dominant defense this season, but the downgrade at QB has had a ripple effect across the entire roster. They’re dead last in yards and points allowed per game, and New York is even dead last in expected points added (EPA) per play by a pretty wide margin.

The offense being so terrible means that the defense is on the field a lot more often. And because the Jets’ offense has also frequently gifted opponents with excellent starting field position, the defense has been put in a lot of positions to fail.

Still, New York's defense hasn’t exactly held up their end of the bargain. They’re merely 20th in EPA allowed per play, so it’s hard to say that their offense has been entirely at fault. Specifically, the Jets' defense currently ranks just 25th in EPA allowed per dropback, so they’ve been significantly worse against the pass than they were last season.

That doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the high-flying Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders in the first two weeks, but they erupted for 34 first-half points against Chicago in Week 3. Although the Chiefs took their foot off the gas in the second half, they probably could’ve scored 60-plus points last week if they wanted to embarrass the Bears like the Broncos got embarrassed.

Travis Kelce missed the first game of the season, and his return has obviously had a tremendous impact on the offense. Patrick Mahomes lacks a clear No. 1 option at WR, so Kelce fills that void as the top pass-catcher even though he's a TE.

Travis Kelce

At age 32, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce posted career highs last season in receptions (110) and touchdowns (12). Photo Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Since Kelce's return, the Chiefs have been sixth in EPA per play on offense over the last two weeks, and Mahomes ranks second in EPA + CPOE composite over that span. While Mahomes’s numbers are slightly down compared to his MVP campaign last season, but he remains the best QB in the league and arguably the most talented QB in NFL history.

The bigger surprise is how good Kansas City's defense has been. They haven’t faced the toughest competition but currently rank fifth in EPA allowed per play. The Jets probably don't pose a huge threat unless Wilson improves significantly, so the Chiefs should continue to find success on defense, especially with Chris Jones back in the picture.

Ultimately, I’m not sure what the sharps see in the Jets right now. The fact that they’re backing New York makes me slightly hesitant about taking the Chiefs, but this game should not be close.

Kansas City doesn’t have the greatest track record as a huge favorite, having gone 14-19-1 ATS when favored by more than a TD during the Mahomes era. That said, they covered in a nearly identical spot last week against a similarly bad team, with the only difference being that the blowout win over the Bears came at home.

If the Jets fall behind, Wilson has the potential to absolutely implode. And even if this game stays competitive, the Jets’ offense is going to play extremely conservatively to try and limit any potential mistakes by Wilson. Either way, it’s hard to imagine this New York team keeping up with Mahomes and company, even at home.

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry. There are a few wagers that stand out as particularly appealing in this matchup using this tool.

One bet that I’ve already locked in is Kelce under 6.5 receptions. I discussed this wager in depth with Geoff Ulrich during our Week 4 Prop Podcast.

Kelce remains as dominant as ever, but his dominance has been due more to efficiency rather than volume as of late. Through two weeks, his utilization numbers are uninspiring with just a 63% route participation and 22% target share.

It’s tempting to say that those numbers were impacted by last week’s blowout win, but Kelce actually saw more routes in that contest than he did in Week 2. Overall, Kelce makes his living by destroying teams in the red zone, not by racking up a ton of catches between the 20s.

We currently have Kelce projected for 5.08 catches, putting him well below his current prop line. The -110 odds on BetMGM are also very reasonable.

Matthew Freedman has also locked in a bet on the Mahomes rushing yardage over. The best number on that prop is currently set on PointsBet, with the over on 15.5 yards at -125.

Patrick Mahomes

Sep 24, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Mahomes isn’t known for his legs, but he’s more than capable of running when he needs to, having averaged at least 20.5 rushing yards per game in each of the past three seasons. He's also displayed an increased aggressiveness on the ground so far in 2023, as Mahomes is currently averaging a career-high 5.3 rushing attempts and 34.3 rushing yards per game through three weeks.

This may not continue, but even if Mahomes were to revert to his rushing averages from prior seasons, it would still be enough to make the over on 15.5 rushing yards appealing. We currently have Mahomes projected for 25.6 rushing yards against the Jets.

Finally, as gross as it may feel, I like the over on 15.5 completions for Zach Wilson. Try to hold in your vomit and hear me out on this one.

Wilson completed 18 of his 36 pass attempts last week, and that was in a game where the Jets were actually competitive. Against the Chiefs’ high-flying offense, there’s a very good chance that New York will be playing from behind for much of the second half. In such a trailing scenario, the Jets would have no choice but to let their QB air it out despite his inadequacies.

Realistically, I think the most likely way that this bet could lose would be if Wilson is benched for Trevor Siemian. However, even if Wilson is awful, Siemian just signed with the team earlier this week, so it’s very likely that he's not familiar enough with the playbook just yet.

As long as the Jets stick with Wilson for the duration of this game, he’s likely going to complete at least 16 passes. We currently have him projected for 20.78 completions, which gives us quite a bit of wiggle room.

Same-Game Parlay

As usual, we’re going to attempt to build a correlated same-game parlay (SGP) for Sunday Night Football. If you’re doing SGPs correctly, they should tell a consistent narrative. That means that if one leg hits, it increases the likelihood that the others will hit as well.

Since I’m leaning towards the Chiefs this week, let’s operate under the assumption that Kansas City will win this primetime game comfortably.

I’m going to start by taking an alternate spread of Chiefs -13.5, but I think you could conceivably go even a bit higher. If Kansas City does cover this number, I expect them to win very comfortably. If they don’t cover the 13.5, then I don’t think they’re going to cover the 8.5 either. Ultimately, it’s a way to build in a bit of additional upside without sacrificing a ton of key numbers.

After that, I’m going to add in the Mahomes rushing over and a Wilson passing yards over. The Mahomes rushing prop is just too good of a value to pass up, and a big projected deficit means that Wilson would need to chuck the rock quite a bit.

We’ll cap things off with a Kelce anytime TD because he seems to score pretty much every week. Add it all up, and it looks something like this:

Same-Game Parlay

A +850 payout feels solid on what seems like a reasonable four-leg SGP. As long as the Chiefs can cover -13.5, I like the chances of the three player props that we’ve included to also get there.

You can tail the SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Regardless of how you choose to play this Sunday Night Football game, good luck this week! And even if our SGP doesn't end up hitting, just shake it off. We'll be back for another SNF preview for Week 5!

Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown