Week 5 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Cowboys @ 49ers
The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 5 brings us a potential late-January playoff preview.
Despite the one hiccup at Arizona, Dallas enters this game likely feeling far better about themselves after having bounced back last week and embarrassing New England. Through four weeks, the Cowboys are second in overall point differential (+83) and have covered easily in three of four games.
While the Cardinals are proving to be a tougher opponent than many figured during preseason, this week will undoubtedly be the real litmus test for the Cowboys.
San Francisco enters this week undefeated after having held off that same Arizona team at home in Week 4, and the 49ers have been the epitome of a well-oiled machine to date.
Last week, the Cardinals (their third shoutout in this preview) managed to cut the lead against the 49ers to 21-17 in the third quarter after a brilliant 99-yard drive. But rather than folding, San Francisco promptly put together two lengthy scoring drives of their own and ended up winning the game by over 20 points.
Thus far on the year, the 49ers rank second in overall offensive DVOA and seventh in defensive DVOA. The Cowboys' defense actually grades out as the best unit in this game (first in overall defensive DVOA), but we have to factor in the strength of the opponent, and Dallas has faced three extremely weak offenses in their first four games.
Regardless of how you view these teams from a power rating perspective, the real question is: what is the best way to approach this game for betting? We’ll dive into the spread, total, and some player props below.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 45.0
- Moneylines: Cowboys +150 / 49ers -181
The 49ers come into this game on quite a roll from a betting perspective. San Francisco is 9-3 ATS and 11-1 SU with Brock Purdy as the starter. While they failed to cover against the Rams, Los Angeles might be one of the most undervalued teams in the NFL at present, so that line may have simply been too far in the 49ers' favor.
From a matchup perspective, the Cowboys' path to victory revolves around two key factors: their ability to pressure Purdy and their ability to run the ball.
San Francisco is certainly no slouch on defense, but they entered last week just 21st in defensive DVOA against the run. Tony Pollard should also be primed for some heavy usage after the Cowboys were able to rest him last week once they were up by 30 points in the second half. Pollard had just 11 carries against the Patriots, but he's been averaging 5.0 yards per carry on the season and will be a significant test for the 49ers' defense.
Oct 1, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Last year, Dallas managed to sack Purdy twice while holding him to just a 65% completion rate and zero TDs in the close 19-12 loss. Pollard was held to just six carries and 22 rushing yards in that playoff matchup, but that was largely due to a fractured fibula he suffered in the second quarter. Prior to Pollard's injury, the game had been tied at 6-6.
With San Francisco’s run defense lagging and now having to face a Dallas offense with a healthy Pollard, Cowboys +3.5 is an appealing bet.
Given how the under has fared in primetime games this year (10-4 to the under), I’d also lean towards the under on the current 45.0 game total. The under has also been profitable when the Cowboys are on the road, as Dallas has been 18-11 to the under since 2020 when away from the dome in Arlington.
Player Props
Tony Pollard over 56.5 rushing yards (-115; BetMGM)
Our own Matthew Freedman put this one up in bet tracker earlier in the week and talked about it in the Week 5 prop betting pod as well.
The 49ers' offense could certainly force the Cowboys to get away from the run game if they build a lead, but either way, as mentioned above, San Francisco's run defense has been below average in 2023. The Fantasy Life projections have Pollard as a great over target as well with a projected 64.5 rush yard line.
Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions (-105; BetMGM)
Despite a couple of monster games already, it really does feel like Brandon Aiyuk is still not getting the respect he deserves. In the two games where Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle have all been active (and finished the game healthy), Aiyuk has averaged 7.0 receptions and 139.5 yards. Last week, he averaged an insane 24.7 yards per catch.
Sep 10, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) gestures at the line of scrimmage against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas’s secondary is certainly no slouch, but the lines on Aiyuk aren’t treating him like the elite top target for San Francisco that he's been to date. With his aggregate projections sitting at 4.8 receptions and 67.5 yards for the week, Aiyuk is another offensive player to target with an over in this game.
Brock Purdy over 6.5 rushing yards (-109; BetMGM)
Every QB coming out of college at this point is at least semi-mobile by necessity, and Purdy is no different. While this 49ers offense doesn't require him to use his feet much, Purdy displayed plenty of willingness to run in the preseason, and he set a career-high of 20 yards rushing against the Steelers' ferocious pass rush in Week 1.
Against the Cowboys' pass rush last year, Purdy also had three runs for 8.0 yards, which again would have put him over this week's total. I don’t expect Purdy to turn into Jalen Hurts this week, but he’ll likely be forced to improvise more than usual against Dallas. It's also worth noting that every single starting QB who's faced the Cowboys thus far in 2023 has gone over 6.5 rushing yards.
Same-Game Parlay
If we're projecting a close, low-scoring game, then it makes sense to pair the Cowboys +3.5 and under 45.0 points. Dallas being projected to keep this game close would also correlate well with the over on Pollard's rushing yardage mentioned above.
Since we're parlaying this with Cowboys +3.5, it makes sense to juice up Pollard's rushing yardage total to over 64.5 yards, as Dallas cover would likely mean that Pollard will see a lot of usage and potentially carry the Cowboys' offense.
And finally, let's add the over on Aiyuk at 54.5 receiving yards. This correlates well with our above prop bet on Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions, and he has a good shot to blow this receiving yardage total out of the water in any game given how he's schemed and his inherent talent.
Good luck in Week 5! You can tail the SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
