Week 5 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Bears at Commanders.
The NFL is offering up a classic Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 5. I think they purposely try to make those games as bad as possible just to prove how much of a hold they have over us. It’s like a toxic relationship, and frankly, they’re winning.
This Thursday, the 0-4 Bears will travel to Washington to take on the 2-2 Commanders. Washington has shown some signs of promise this season, but the Bears have been a soap opera. They’ve shown more fight off the field than on it, and they’re currently at or near the bottom of most power rankings.
Can the Bears get on the board for the first time since Elon Musk bought Twitter, or will the Commanders hand them another convincing loss? Let’s dive in.
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
- Spread: Commanders -5.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Total: 44.5
- Moneylines: Bears +200/Commanders -250
The line movement in this game has been very interesting. The Commanders were initially listed as 1.5-point favorites when this number first came out, but the Bears have obviously failed to live up to expectations. That saw this number get as high as Commanders -7.0 at certain locations.
However, there’s been some sharp buyback since then. This number has steadily crept back in Chicago’s favor, with the current line settling at Commanders -5.5 on BetMGM. The public unsurprisingly wants nothing to do with the Bears—they’ve received just 37% of the spread bets per the Action Network—but they have a slight edge in terms of betting dollars.
Overall, the sharps clearly see something they like with the Bears in this matchup.
Oct 1, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) drops back to pass/ against the Denver Broncos during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
It’s clearly has nothing to do with the team’s defense. They’ve been abysmal on that side of the ball this season, ranking 28th in yards per game, 31st in points, and 31st in EPA/play. They’ve surrendered at least 27 points in all four contests, with three of their opponents getting to at least 31.
However, the offense did show signs of life in Week 4. The Bears blew a commanding 21-point second-half lead, but the fact that they established one to begin with is a positive sign. They also racked up 471 yards of total offense, outgaining the Broncos by 160 yards.
In short, you can make a good case that the Bears were the better team last week; they just didn’t win.
That said, doing it against the Broncos—the only team with arguably a worse defense than the Bears—is one thing. Doing it against the Commanders is a different story.
Washington has been competitive for most of the season. They were blown out by the Bills in Week 3, but they took the Eagles to overtime at home in Week 4. Philly hasn’t quite been the same juggernaut this year that they were in 2022, but it’s still an impressive result.
Their defense has been below average, but they can still get after the quarterback. They have 13 sacks through the first four weeks, tied for the seventh-best mark in football. Their offense has been roughly league-average, with Sam Howell holding his own in his first year as a starter.
While the public will clearly give the Commanders credit for their showing vs. the Eagles, it’s important to remember what the team did early as well. While Chicago thoroughly outplayed Denver, the Commanders were outgained by the Broncos and escaped with a comeback two-point win. They also played a tight contest at home against the Cardinals, resulting in another close victory.
Ultimately, this team may not be a disaster, but they’re not particularly good either.
It’s easy to write the Bears off at this point, but I think this is probably too many points. I would’ve preferred to grab them at +7.0 when this line first came out on Sunday, but I think they’re clearly the right side. Don’t be surprised if they pick up their first win of the season.
Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry. There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
The first number that jumped off the board to me was Howell’s rushing prop. It’s currently set at just 12.5 yards, with the best price being -135 on DraftKings.
No one is going to confuse Howell with Michael Vick, but his athleticism is a big part of his game. He had 35 rushing yards in his lone start last season, and he’s averaged 20.5 yards per game through four contests in 2023.
Howell has ultimately hit the over on 12.5 in three straight contests, and he ran a season-high six times vs. the Eagles. We currently have him projected for 16.3 yards, and I think that’s on the conservative side.
Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) runs with the ball as Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Tim Settle (99) chases during the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Matthew Freedman has also locked Antonio Gibson under 22.5 rushing yards into our free Bet Tracker. That may seem like a low number for Gibson, but he’s operated as the clear No. 2 running back behind Brian Robinson this season. Gibson has handled just 14% of the team’s rushing attempts through the first four weeks, and he’s had just seven carries over the past three.
Overall, he’s racked up 19 rushing yards or fewer in four straight games.
As long as you think the Bears can keep this game competitive, it seems unlikely that Gibson is going to get more work on the ground than usual. We currently have him projected for around 19 yards, so there’s plenty of value in under 22.5 at -115 on BetMGM.
Same-Game Parlay
As usual, we’re going to attempt to build a correlated same-game parlay for this matchup. That means that if one part of our bet hits, it increases the odds that the other parts hit as well.
That said, remember that SGPs are hard to hit. I much prefer betting the lines individually, but I’m not going to hold it against you if you’re looking to have some fun with a parlay. After all, sports betting should be fun! However, if your goal is to be a profitable bettor, they should be a minimal part of your portfolio.
I’m going to start this SGP by aiming high with the Bears moneyline. If the Bears can cover this game, there’s a good chance they can win outright. In the 2021 regular season, the spread “mattered” just 39 times out of 272 games. The favorite won and covered 133 times, and the underdog won outright 97 times. Ultimately, there were just 39 instances where the underdog lost the game but managed to cover the spread.
Since we’re already adding some variance with a same-game parlay, I have no problem forgoing the points for a better potential payout in a game where the sharps like the underdog.
After that, the question becomes, “What does a Bears win look like?”
I think a Bears win correlates well with the Gibson under previously discussed, and then we can focus on the Bears’ offense. They should have won last week, and in that game, Justin Fields threw for 335 yards and Cole Kmet scored twice. Overall, Fields has thrown for at least 200 yards in all but one game this season, while Kmet has 33% of the team’s end zone targets.
Ultimately, something like this doesn’t seem all that unreasonable and offers plenty of upside:
You can tail the SGP at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up for a new account below!
Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
