Matt LaMarca shares the Early Betting Lines for Week 6 of the NFL season.

One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as closing-line value—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.

So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 5 and look for some opportunities to find value.

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

  • Current Line: -105; DraftKings
  • Bet To: -6.5 (-120)

I’ve been saying that the Commanders are for real for weeks. I still believe that, but this is the week we find out just how real they actually are. There’s levels to this sh*t.

The Commanders are about to face a serious step up in competition. After beating the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns over the past four weeks, they now have to go into Baltimore and take on one of the best teams in football. The Ravens are a complete team, led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. They can beat you with their offense—which they did with a 41-38 win over the Bengals on Sunday—and they can beat you with their defense. They absolutely stifled the Bills in Week 4, despite Buffalo entering that contest as the No. 1 team in EPA per play.

While the Commanders’ offense has been phenomenal under Jayden Daniels, they might not be as effective against this Ravens’ unit. And if that happens, they don’t have the defense to back them up. They’ve played better on that side of the ball of late, but shutting down the Cardinals and Browns is not nearly the same as shutting down the Ravens.

This feels like the perfect time to sell high on the Commanders. I’m still bullish on them overall, but teams that have won and covered in four straight games are just 65-77-2 ATS the following week. This line was initially released at Ravens -8.5, so we’re essentially getting two points of spread value—including a key number—with the current line.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Current Line: -110; BetMGM
  • Bet To: +3.0 (+100)

The Raiders appear to be a sinking ship at the moment. Their star receiver has missed the past two games while seeking a trade to a new franchise. Their best defensive player is dealing with an ankle injury. They benched their starting quarterback while getting blown out by the Broncos.

That all sounds really bad. Honestly, it is really bad. But the truth is, things are rarely as bad as they seem at the NFL level.

Take the Giants. They were playing without arguably their two best offensive players last week, and they still managed to beat the Seahawks in Seattle. Even with everything going wrong for the Raiders of late, they still have two wins on the year.

The good news is that Aidan O’Connell stands out as a potential upgrade at quarterback. He was effective at times for the team last season, while Gardner Minshew has been awful. He’s 23rd among qualified QBs in EPA + CPOE composite and 24th in PFF grade, so O’Connell should at least be able to duplicate his production.

This also stands out as a really good spot. The Steelers are in a potential letdown spot after playing against the Cowboys in prime time, and they’ve never been great under Mike Tomlin as favorites. As road favorites specifically, they’re just 37-47-2 ATS during the regular season. Conversely, the Raiders have been strong under Antonio Pierce as underdogs, going 7-3-1 ATS.

Betting on the Raiders might feel gross, but I really like the +3.5 available at BetMGM. This number is 3.0 across the rest of the industry, so I’m snapping it up while it’s an option.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) at Seattle Seahawks

  • Current Line: -115; DraftKings
  • Play To: -3.0 (-120)

I’m not sure who the Seahawks pissed off in the schedule-makers department, but they’re in an absolutely brutal spot this week. They have to play on Thursday Night Football after playing on Monday night two weeks ago, marking their third game in an 11-day stretch.

Making matters worse, they have to face a really strong 49ers squad. San Francisco dropped its third game of the year on Sunday after losing just nine total games in the past two years combined. However, the 49ers have led by 10+ points in the fourth quarter in two of their three losses. They haven’t been able to get across the finish line, but they’re still building big leads against most of their opponents. They had an uncharacteristic 3 turnovers vs. the Cardinals, which kept them off the scoreboard after halftime.

The 49ers should be able to take advantage of the Seahawks defense in this spot, which has been exposed over the past two weeks. They were absolutely dominated by the Lions, and more embarrassingly, they surrendered 420 yards to a Giants squad without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. If not for a 102-yard fumble return touchdown, the Seahawks would’ve gotten run off the field in their own building.

If the Giants can do that to the Seahawks, why can’t the 49ers? The 49ers won both games vs. Seattle by at least 12 points last season, and they were 3-0 ATS vs. the Seahawks in 2022-23.

Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have an elite record off a loss—he’s 25-25-1 ATS— but I expect the 49ers to be extremely focused in this matchup. Losing to the Seahawks would put them two games behind Seattle in the standings, and it’d be their third divisional loss. That could come into play in tiebreaker scenarios.