Matt LaMarca presents the Best Bets and Props for Week 6 Monday Night Football, featuring the Buffalo Bills against the New York Jets.

NFL Week 6 wraps up with a huge AFC East showdown. The New York Jets will host the Buffalo Bills with first place in the division up for grabs.

The Bills jumped out to a hot start this season, rolling through the first three weeks of the season. However, they’ve stumbled of late, losing back-to-back road games vs. the Ravens and Texans. Those are two solid football teams, but they’ll be on the road for a third straight game against a talented Jets squad.

Meanwhile, things have been a disaster for the Jets. They’re sitting at just 2-3, and Owner Woody Johnson made the decision to fire head coach Robert Saleh after back-to-back losses to the Broncos and Vikings. This team had big expectations coming into the year, and a change was clearly needed. They also took play-calling responsibilities away from offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, so it’s a pretty big overhaul from a coaching perspective.

Will the Jets rally behind their new coaches, or will the Bills bounce back with a win? Let’s dive in.

 

Buffalo Bills (-1.0) at New York Jets—41.0 total

From a scheduling standpoint, there are some negatives going against both teams here. Historically, playing in your third straight road game has been tough to overcome. Those teams have gone just 36-39 ATS, and they’re just 17-20 in divisional games.

That’s good news for the Jets, but they’ll be playing just eight days after being in London. We don’t have a huge track record of teams playing without a bye following an appearance overseas, but logically, it seems like a tough adjustment.

Still, the sharps have shown a clear interest in the Jets in this spot. New York got as high as +3.0 early in the week, but after Saleh was fired, the number settled at around +2.5. It has since been hit hard over the past few days, dropping the Jets to +1.0 across most of the industry.

I was lucky enough to grab the Jets +2.5—which you can find in our NFL Bet Tracker—but there’s ultimately not a huge difference between +2.5 and +1.0. Once you get under the key number of 3.0, you’re likely going to need to win to cover regardless.

With that in mind, I like the Jets on the moneyline at the current numbers. Their defense has always fared well against Josh Allen. Allen does have a 7-4 record vs. the Jets, but they’ve limited him to just 6.14 adjusted yards per attempt. That’s one of his worst marks vs. any team, especially against teams with more than just a few matchups.

The Bills’ offense also has to answer some questions after their past two performances. They were dismantled by the Ravens’ defense, limiting them to just 10 points and 236 yards, and they weren’t much better against the Texans. Overall, the Bills are just 24th in yards per game despite ranking fifth in points. That kind of disparity suggests regression moving forward, and the Jets are good enough defensively to take advantage.

The Pick: Jets ML (+100; BetMGM)

Player Props for Monday Night Football

Keon Coleman Under 35.5 receiving yards (-115; BetMGM)

The Bills’ passing attack looks like a shell of what it used to be. Allen is averaging less than 200 yards per game—his lowest mark since his rookie season—and Khalil Shakir is the only player averaging more than 35 receiving yards per game. Keon Coleman has a target share of just 13% in one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in the league at the moment, so under 35.5 yards seems like a solid target against a strong Jets’ secondary.

Braelon Allen Over 7.5 carries (-120; BetMGM)

Is Breece Hall’s role as the Jets’ top running back in jeopardy? Probably not, but the fact that it’s even a question speaks to how well Braelon Allen has played this season. He’s run for 4.5 yards per carry, while Hall has lagged well behind at 3.0. Hall has been particularly brutal in his past two outings, turning 19 carries into just 27 yards.

Allen has handled at least 8 carries in two of his past three games, and he should continue to carve out a solid role for himself. The lone exception was last week’s game vs. the Vikings, where the Jets trailed throughout and Aaron Rodgers threw 50+ passes. As long as this week’s game is more competitive, Allen should get his opportunities.

Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown (+280; DraftKings)

Dalton Kincaid has been a bit of a disappointment after being drafted as one of the top tight ends in fantasy this offseason. He’s managed just 15 catches, 166 yards, and 1 touchdown through his first five games, and he’s currently the No. 16 TE in PPR points per game.

Still, that’s more about the Bills’ passing attack than Kincaid himself. He’s still been a featured player, racking up a target share of at least 23% in three of his past four games. The Bills just haven’t thrown enough for that to matter. He also has 25% of the team’s end-zone targets this season, so he seems underpriced to score at +280.