Before we get into my Week 6 NFL bets, let's look at last week.

Overall, Week 5 was positive.

  • Vikings-Jets Under 40.5: By hook or by crook, baby!
  • Patriots-Dolphins Under 35.5: Probably my best look of the week. 
  • Colts +3 at Jaguars: Happy (and lucky) to get the push.
  • Broncos-Raiders Under 36.5: Broncos almost hit this number by themselves.

In summary, I was 2-1-1 (+0.9 units), which brings me to 10-10-1 (-0.6 units) for the year, and I'm OK with that considering how poorly I performed in Week 2.

That said, if this year you had tailed all my best bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker—before I wrote my weekly articles—then your record would be 11-9-1 (+1.83 units).

And that's why you should regularly check out our bets in the tracker, where we place the bets we're making right as we make them, when they're likely to provide the most value.

And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections.

You can get 10% off with the promo code FREEDMAN.

Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Alright … let's get into Week 6.

Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.

  1. Brief notes on my favorite bets.
  2. Briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
  3. The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
  4. The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

NFL Week 6 Bets

Here are my favorite bets currently available.

  • Eagles -8.5 vs. Browns (-110, DraftKings)
  • Ravens -6.5 vs. Commanders (-110, Caesars)
  • Broncos-Chargers Under 35.5 (-105, FanDuel)
  • Raiders +3 vs. Steelers (-110, DraftKings)
  • Lions -3 at Cowboys (-110, Caesars)

Odds and projections as of Wed. 10/9 at 10 am ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.

Eagles -8.5 vs. Browns (-110, DraftKings)

The Eagles at home should be fresh off the bye, and I project them to get back WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) and RT Lane Johnson (concussion).

Compare that to the Browns, who have a slew of well-documented injuries too numerous to name and are playing their third straight road game. 

The situational spot for the Browns is dreadful—and that says nothing of the fact that QB Deshaun Watson has looked like the league's worst franchise signal caller this season, ranking No. 31 in EPA + CPOE (0.005, per RBs Don't Matter).

This is a big number for the Eagles to lay considering that they could easily be 0-4, but it should be even bigger.

  • Bet in Tracker: -6.5 (-110, Lookahead)
  • Projection: -10.6

Ravens -6.5 vs. Commanders (-110, Caesars)

I've been impressed with what we've seen out of Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, who's No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.215). I doubt he'll win MVP … but he has MVP numbers, and he's a worthy -210 Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner. 

I'm happy to have a +650 OROY Daniels ticket from the offseason and believe fully in his ability to keep the Commanders offense moving against the Ravens defense.

But the Commanders defense is vulnerable, ranking No. 26 in dropback EPA (0.177) and No. 27 in rush EPA (-0.010). Against QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derrick Henry & Co., the Commanders defense is likely to be exposed and the ultimate difference in this game. 

  • Bet in Tracker: -6.5 (-115, Lookahead)
  • Projection: -8

Broncos-Chargers Under 35.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Chargers unders are 4-0 (90.7% ROI), and on average their games have fallen short of the market total by a full 10 points.

The Chargers defense is No. 2 in EPA (-0.185) … tied with the Broncos defense (-0.185).

QBs Justin Herbert (-2.5 yards) and Bo Nix (-2) are both bottom-12 in average yards to the sticks with their pass attempts. Neither guy is looking to push the ball down the field.

And the Chargers rank No. 2 with a 53.0% rush rate, so they're not looking to throw the ball much anyway.

And then you add all that on top of the fact that we have a warm-weather team traveling to play a divisional game outdoors at elevation in the mountains in the middle of October … and the under just screams to be bet.

  • Bet in Tracker: Under 37.5 (-110, Lookahead)
  • Projection: 32.6

Raiders +3 vs. Steelers (-110, DraftKings)

Who are the Steelers to be favored by a field goal on the road against any team besides maybe Patriots, Panthers, and Dolphins without QB Tua Tagovailoa?

The Raiders are bad … but they're not that bad.

I have the Steelers power rated at zero points on a neutral field, so they're the definition of a mediocre team, and that kind of team shouldn't be laying this many points away from home, especially when you consider that HC Mike Tomlin's teams have historically disappointed in this spot, going 33-41-2 ATS (-11.3% ROI) as road favorites and 24-35-1 ATS (-18.3% ROI) when favored by at least a field goal as visitors.

Built into my projections are the assumptions that the Steelers start QB Justin Fields (instead of Russell Wilson) and the Raiders start QB Gardner Minshew (instead of Aidan O'Connell), which are assumptions we might not be able to make safely.

And those assumptions are meaningful, because I have Wilson as an upgrade of +0.7 points on Fields and O'Connell as a downgrade of -0.4 on Minshew (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Table). If Wilson and O'Connell end up starting this week, then my projection will end up very close to the marketwide +3.

But if the current QB situation holds for both teams, I like the Raiders at home.

  • Bet in Tracker: +3 (-110, Lookahead)
  • Projection: +1.5

Lions -3 at Cowboys (-110, Caesars)

Last week, I bet on the Cowboys because I doubted the Steelers offense was functional enough to exploit a defense missing EDGEs DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, IR) and Micah Parsons (ankle).

I have no such reservations about the Lions offense, which should be rested and ready off the Week 5 bye.

And it's not as if the Cowboys are without just Lawrence and Parsons. On defense, they could also be without No. 3 EDGE Marshawn Kneeland (knee) and perimeter CB Caelen Carson (shoulder), and on offense they are missing No. 2 WR Brandin Cooks (knee, IR) and might be without LT Tyler Guyton (knee).

Lions HC Dan Campbell is a godlike 40-18 ATS (31.6% ROI) for his career and 17-6 ATS (40.9% ROI) against teams with a winning record.

  • Bet in Tracker: -3 (-110)
  • Projection: -3.9

Week 6 Games That Have My Attention For Betting

Jaguars +2.5 vs. Bears in London (-105, Caesars): This feels teasable, if you're feeling frisky.

Patriots-Texans Under 38 (-110, DraftKings): The Texans have limited incentive to run up the score, and the Patriots probably can't. 

Ravens-Commanders Over 51.5 (-105, ESPN Bet): I probably won't want double exposure to this game … but maybe the most American thing anyone can do this weekend is bet on points between these two teams. 

Jets +2.5 vs. Bills (-108, FanDuel): This feels teasable, if you're feeling nasty.

Contest Picks For Week 6

Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.

Right now I'm 14-11, which has me at No. 748 of 3,637 entries. Not terrible, but also just a little outside the money. Gotta get better.

If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 6, these might be the ones (based on the contests, consensus, and sharp lines, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).

  • Steelers -2.5 at Raiders: Consensus -3
  • Chargers -2.5 at Broncos: Consensus -3
  • Texans -6.5 at Patriots: Consensus -7
  • Falcons -5.5 at Panthers: Consensus -6
  • Jaguars +2.5 vs. Bears (in London): Consensus +2

I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines move.

Week 6 NFL Survivor Picks

I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.

Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 6.

  • Eagles (-8.5) vs. Browns: The Eagles are home off the bye against a team playing its third straight road game, they're the week's biggest favorite, and they might never be favored by this many points again. I expect them to be the deserved chalk.
     
  • Texans (-7) at Patriots: Nothing wrong with going against a rookie QB in his first start.
     
  • Ravens (-6.5) vs. Commanders: The Ravens are an option, but they should probably be saved as one of the few teams in the Christmas slate.
     
  • Falcons (-6) at Panthers: The Falcons have a three-day rest advantage off Thursday Night Football, and it's hard to go wrong picking against the Panthers.

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Points Per Game (PPG)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.