Here are five of my favorite NFL Week 6 player props currently available. For all my Week 6 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.
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Odds and projections are as of Fri. 10/11 at 4 am ET.
Amari Cooper Anytime TD
- Odds: +310 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: 0.33 TDs | +255.8 Odds to Score
Last week I bet on Cooper to score a TD at +230. It didn't work out … so now I'm doubling down at better odds. What could go wrong?
Cooper is one of my Week 6 WR fantasy favorites, despite the fact that he has massively disappointed this year with no more than 60 scoreless yards in four of five games.
But in Week 3 he did have a 7-86-2 receiving performance, and in Week 4 he was close to having two more TDs, but, alas … sheesh. In Week 5, he had a league-high 143 unrealized air yards.
With a 94% route rate and 28% target share, Cooper is still getting opportunities (per our industry-leading Utilization Report). He has eight-plus targets in every game and 47 on the year. With that kind of usage, a TD is always in play.
And it helps that this week he's going against the Eagles, who are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (per 32.1%, FTN). They're yet to face a No. 1 WR who hasn't scored against them.
- Jayden Reed (Week 1): 4-138-1 receiving | 6 targets
- Drake London (Week 2): 6-54-1 receiving | 7 targets
- Chris Olave (Week 3): 6-86-1 receiving | 6 targets
- Mike Evans (Week 4): 8-94-1 receiving | 14 targets
At +310, Cooper has a 24.4% implied probability to score a TD this weekend (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think his true odds are closer to 28%.
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing TDs
- Odds: -200 (BetMGM)
- My Projection: 1.8 TDs
Love is one of my Week 6 QB fantasy favorites.
He's No. 2 with 291 yards passing per game, and HC Matt LaFleur at home is 29-17 ATS (20.9% ROI) and 35-11 ML (16.9% ROI, per Action Network). The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (57.4%, per RBs Don't Matter).
There's a lot to like about his situation.
But even regardless of his situation (at home facing a weak opponent), Love would appeal to me because of his history of success in this market. In every game this year, he has hit the over on his prop with two-plus TDs. Last year, he went over 1.5 TDs passing in 11 of 14 games after the Week 6 bye.
The last time Love didn't hit the over on his passing TDs prop was Week 14.
All this guy does is throw TDs—and it helps that he has playmaking pass catchers around him with WRs Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs and TEs Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave.
I get that -200 is a lot of juice, but I think it should be even more given that the Packers are -5 favorites in a game with a solid 47.5 total. Points should abound for the Packers.
Austin Ekeler Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
- Odds: -114 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: 21.0
The analysis here is straightforward: Ekeler has gone over this number in every game he's played this year.
- Week 1: 4-52-0 receiving | 4 targets
- Week 2: 3-47-0 receiving | 3 targets
- Week 3: 2-22-0 receiving | 2 targets
- Week 5: 2-30-0 receiving | 2 targets
Ekeler's efficiency as a receiver is destined to regress. He won't continue to average 13.7 yards per target or manage a 100% catch rate.
Still, Ekeler has been efficient (7.1 yards per target, 79.5% catch rate) and prolific (5.3 targets per game) throughout his career, and his situation is aided by the fact that QB Jayden Daniels is deadly accurate (league-best 77.1% completion rate) and No. 1 RB Brian Robinson (knee) missed Wednesday and Thursday practices.
If Robinson is out or limited this week, then Ekeler could see a boost in playing time and might even serve as the top back in a timeshare with No. 3 RB Jeremy McNichols, who would likely be a nonentity in the pass game, given his 1% target share and 6% target rate for the year.
Last year as a lead back, Ekeler had a prop line no lower than 28.5 receiving yards at any point in the season, and he had more than 18.5 in 10 of 14 games.
As +6.5 road dogs in a game with an elevated 51.5 total, the Commanders could have a pass-leaning game script, which could benefit Ekeler immensely, and the Ravens have allowed 36.4 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs.
Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions
- Odds: -115 (BetMGM)
- My Projection: 0.73 INTs | -174.7 Odds to Throw INT
I swear by the gods of gambling: If Allen doesn't throw an INT this week, I'm done betting this prop forever—until at least next week.
Last year, this was one of my favorite props. This year, Allen's yet to throw an INT. Unreal. Literally unbelievable.
This can't last forever. Deep down, Allen is still a gunslinging son of a gunslinger. Last year, he threw 18 INTs in 19 games (including playoffs). The year before that, 17 INTs in 18 games. And the year before that, 15 in 19.
Since OC Joe Brady assumed playcalling duties last year in Week 11, the Bills have focused more on running the ball, and Allen's INTs have dropped. In 14 games with Brady, Allen has just seven INTs with a pick in only six of them.
But facing the Jets, Allen seems likely to regress to his former pick-tossing ways.
Since 2022—when the Jets added starting perimeter CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed to the roster—Allen has seven INTs in six games against the Jets. And when facing them on the road, he has six INTs with a pick in each of his three games.
With Allen on the road in primetime playing the Jets immediately after they've fired HC Robert Saleh … this feels like an INT spot.
David Montgomery Anytime TD
- Odds: -128 (Caesars)
- My Projection: 0.67 TDs | -131.3 Odds to Score
Montgomery is one of my Week 6 RB fantasy favorites.
He has a TD in every game this year. Last year, he had 15 TDs in 18 games (including playoffs). In total, he has scored in all but four of 21 games since joining the Lions.
I expect the Lions to rely heavily on the ground game as -3 road favorites, and they could put up a lot of points in a game with a 52.5 total.
The Cowboys are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.103), will definitely be without EDGEs DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, IR) and Marshawn Kneeland (knee, IR) on the defensive line, and could also be without All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons (ankle), who missed last week and is yet to return to practice.
Montgomery should be rested off the Week 5 bye, and HC Dan Campbell is 17-6 ATS (40.9% ROI) and 13-9-1 ML (23.3% ROI) against teams with winning records.
This is a perfect spot for Montgomery to find the end zone once again.