The Bears. Falcons. Giants. And Patriots. What do they all have in common?
They all entered Week 7 with no more than one win against the spread (ATS). They all entered Week 7 as underdogs. And they all covered.
In fact, they didn’t just cover. They all won outright.
- Bears +2.5: Beat Raiders 30-12
- Falcons +3: Beat Buccaneers 16-13
- Giants +3: Beat Commanders 14-7
- Patriots +7.5: Beat Bills 29-25
What should we make of these four teams going forward?
That’s hard to know, but here are some thoughts.
Chicago Bears: 2-4 ATS
QB Justin Fields (thumb) is out with an injury that could keep him sidelined for at least another week — maybe longer? — but rookie backup Tyson Bagent looked competent in his first NFL start (21-of-29 passing, 70 QBR, just one sack, no turnovers).
On the one hand, Bagent was the Division II 2021 MVP as the Harlon Hill Trophy winner, and he was good enough in training camp to beat out veterans P.J. Walker and Nathan Peterman for the No. 2 job.
Oct 22, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) celebrates as he leaves the field after leading the Bears to a win over the Las Vegas Raiders at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
On the other hand, he’s a small-school first-year player with one NFL start, and even though his NFL debut was promising he still passed for just 162 yards in an imminently soft matchup against the Raiders.
I think we shouldn’t read much into what we saw in Week 7. In yesterday’s Betting Life Newsletter, I noted that I have Bagent as -3.8 ATS vs. Fields, and I still think that’s a fair estimation.
With Bears HC Matt Eberflus, the longer-term dynamics still seem relevant. Since becoming coach last year, Eberflus is 7-16-1 ATS (-40.3% ROI, per Action Network).
And ever since Eberflus (a defensive HC) initiated the “rebuild” of his side of the ball last year with the trade of EDGE Robert Quinn (10/26) — followed quickly by the trade of LB Roquan Smith (10/31) — the over is 13-4 (46.5% ROI).
Under Eberflus, the Bears have struggled to cover — both in the betting market and on the football field.
Atlanta Falcons: 2-5 ATS
QB Desmond Ridder was somewhat acceptable in Week 7 with 250 yards, no TDs, and no INTs on 19-of-25 passing, to which he added 6-38-1 rushing, but…
- He lost three fumbles.
- The defense allowed only 13 points.
- The Falcons won on a 42-yard field goal as time expired.
Let’s not act as if the Falcons have solved their problems.
Under HC Arthur Smith, they have underwhelmed in multiple ways: He’s 17-23-1 ATS (-18.7% ROI), and the under is 26-15 (21.6% ROI), an embarrassing fact for an offensive HC.
And then there’s this: With Ridder, the Falcons in the first half — when they should theoretically benefit from their scripted plays — are 1-10 ATS (-86.2% ROI).
With Ridder and Smith, the Falcons still look like a team troubled.
New York Giants: 2-5 ATS
The Giants have underperformed to open the year, and they probably overperformed last year (14-5 ATS) in HC Brian Daboll’s first season with the team, so projecting them forward is difficult, especially since QB Daniel Jones (neck) is out with an injury.
But in his absence, backup QB Tyrod Taylor has been more than serviceable at 2-0 ATS (90.5% ROI). For his career, Taylor is 32-21-3 ATS (16.2% ROI), and since leaving the Bills in 2018 and becoming a bridge/backup he’s 9-3 ATS (42.6% ROI).
In some ways, I’m impressed with Daboll. As an underdog, he’s 13-7 ATS (24.5% ROI). Off a loss, he’s 9-2 ATS (56.6% ROI). That’s encouraging.
In other ways, I’m underwhelmed. Based on how he acts in games and what he says afterward, everything always seems to be someone else’s fault — and the under is 16-9-1 (21.8% ROI). That’s disappointing for an offensive HC.
Overall, I’m still skeptical about the Giants.
New England Patriots: 2-5 ATS
Since QB Tom Brady left the Patriots via free agency in 2020, HC Bill Belichick is 26-30-1 ATS (-9.1% ROI). With QB Mac Jones specifically, he’s 16-21 ATS (-14.7% ROI).
The post-Brady era has not been exceptional.
Here’s something I think is notable. Most teams, HCs, and QBs have positive splits as underdogs. And that makes sense. Bettors tend to have a natural bias against the inferior team in a contest.
But with Belichick and Jones, we see reverse splits.
- Jones as Favorite: 12-8-1 ATS (18.2% ROI)
- Jones as Underdog: 4-13 ATS (-55.4% ROI)
This is just a hypothesis, but I think these splits can be explained largely by the Patriots defense.
Belichick (a defensive HC) tends to rely on man coverage, which usually puts pass defenders in skill-based (vs. scheme-based) matchups. In man, pass defenders who are objectively better than the receivers they’re covering will usually win their matchups. But if they’re inferior to the opposing pass catchers, they’ll often lose their one-on-ones.
As underdogs, the Patriots (I imagine) will still be exploitable.
