Matt LaMarca reveals the early NFL Betting Lines that he's targeting for Week 6.
One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as closing-line value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 7 and look for some opportunities to find value.
New York Giants (+4.0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Current Line: -110; DraftKings
- Bet To: +3.5 (-110)
Full disclosure—I’m writing this piece before Sunday Night Football on Week 7, so I have no idea what has happened yet between the Giants and Bengals. If the Giants pick up some more injuries in that contest, it’s possible that this line moves in the other direction.
However, I’m looking to lock in a potential value while I can, and I think that’s the case with the G-Men. They’ve been a better-than-expected team through the first five weeks of the season. They’ve won two games, and they’ve had one-possession losses to the Commanders and Cowboys in two others. The last time they were badly outplayed was all the way back in Week 1 against the currently undefeated Minnesota Vikings.
There’s a good chance that they’ll also get back their top offensive weapon for this contest. Malik Nabers has been an absolute stud to start the year, but he’s missed their past two outings with a concussion. Devin Singletary also has a chance to suit up after sitting out the past two games.
That said, this play is more about the Eagles than the Giants. They’re simply not a very good football team. The Browns gave them everything they could handle on Sunday despite their offense continuing to stink. The Eagles couldn’t cover the nearly 10-point spread, and the game was tied into the fourth quarter. They have problems on defense, and their offense continues to look unimpressive since losing offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to the Colts two years ago.
Despite all that, they’re expected to go into MetLife Stadium and win by 4+ points? Jalen Hurts is just 2-4-1 ATS as a road favorite in divisional games, so I’ll take my chances with the Giants.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Current Line: -110; BetMGM
- Bet To: -2.5 (-120)
Lambeau Field will play host to a marquee matchup next Sunday. The Packers moved to 4-2 with a win over the Cardinals in Week 6, and they’ll be visited by the 5-1 Texans. Houston is coming off a 41-point eruption vs. the Patriots, and it easily covered as large favorites.
Still, the Texans were facing a QB making his first career start in Drake Maye. It would’ve been shocking if they didn’t win that contest, and they weren’t overly impressive on offense. C.J. Stroud finished with just 192 passing yards, but the running game and defense were able to pick up the slack. They forced four turnovers while Joe Mixon and crew ran for more than 190 yards.
The passing game is the biggest reason for concern. The team struggled after losing Nico Collins to a hamstring injury last week vs. the Bills, and they didn’t look great without him vs. the Patriots, either.
They’re going to have to deal with a few more injuries in Week 7. Both Laremy Tunsil and Dalton Schultz exited with injuries vs. the Pats, so it’s possible that both players are sidelined against the Packers. If that’s the case, the team would be without its best offensive lineman and two of its top four pass catchers.
While you can survive those types of injuries against teams like the Patriots—especially against a rookie starter—it’s a completely different animal to do it opposing the Packers in Lambeau Field. The Packers rolled to more than 435 yards of total offense vs. the Cardinals, so Jordan Love appears fully recovered from his knee injury. I’m locking this one in now to protect against it moving to -3.0.
Detroit Lions ML at Minnesota Vikings
- Current Line: -102; DraftKings
- Play To: -120
It has been a magical start to the year for the Vikings. They’ve yet to suffer a defeat, and they’ve knocked off some strong teams in the process. They’ve beaten the 49ers, Texans, Packers, and Jets, and they’re fresh off a bye week in Week 6.
As good of a story as the Vikings are, do they deserve to be favored vs. the Lions? I’m not in that camp. Detroit has an argument for being the best team in football at the moment. Their offense has been an absolute wrecking ball, punishing teams with their ground game and setting up Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown for big plays through the air. They just absolutely humiliated the Cowboys in Dallas, winning by nearly 40 points.
That win didn’t come without a loss, as Aidan Hutchinson went down with a gruesome leg injury and underwent surgery immediately. His season has been declared over after he was diagnosed with a fractured tibia. Hutchinson entered Week 6 as the league leader in sacks, so it’s a massive loss for the Lions defense.
Still, even without Hutchinson, I struggle to see a scenario where the Vikings are the better team. When this game was first released, the Lions were listed as 3.5-point road favorites. Minnesota is definitely better than expected, but this feels like too big of an overcorrection. I’m willing to take the moneyline at anything better than -120 with what I believe to be the superior squad.
