In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Stay Focused: The next seven weeks or so are the meat of the NFL season, and if you blink, you just may miss it.
Teams have already started their bye weeks and one team has even fired its coach. Soon we’ll have the NFL trade deadline and Thanksgiving will be here before you know it; where your slightly inappropriate uncle will try selling you a timeshare on some Caribbean Island you’ve never heard of.
During all this, we’ll have two other major sporting leagues get started, the NHL and NBA, and the Fall Classic where MLB crowns a champion.
With all this stuff going on it’s easy to miss out on some vital information and lose that early-season edge you gained by staying vigilant. Luckily, if you’re a FantasyLife+ subscriber, you already have access to some of the best projections in the business to help guide you.
Last week I used them to pound the overs on a few different WRs—including George Pickens and DeAndre Hopkins—who were projecting with solid edges and placed them in our Free NFL Bet Tracker.
It took until late in the game for both men to hit (Hopkins went over on the final play!), but my trust in the projections rewarded me with a couple of wins. In the long term, I’m confident they’ll reward anyone patient enough to stick with them as well.
So if you’re looking to maintain that preseason edge you gained back in August by studying each team’s depth chart on the beach, don’t be afraid to check out our product. On top of projections, you’ll get access to some amazing stuff like Utilization Scores, Pick’em Tools for sites like Underdog and PrizePicks, and advanced data tables.
With the NFL nearing the halfway point, every week you wait means lost edges you won’t get back until next fall.
Now let’s get to this week’s favorite early bet, where we’re risking it all on a legacy game from Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Week 7: The Rams are in a smash spot
- NHL Prop Drop: McDavid can ignite the Oilers against Philly
NFL Week 7—The Rams Can Rebound
by Geoff Ulrich
No one had a rougher start to the NFL season than the Los Angeles Rams. Before the season was even two weeks old they had a decimated secondary, having lost CBs Derion Kendrick and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson for the season, and Darious Williams for multiple weeks.
On offense, WRs Puka Nukua and Cooper Kupp went down in consecutive games, forcing the Rams to rely on a skeleton crew with rookie Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell stepping up into roles they are not accustomed to. Their O-Line has also endured losses, as they’ve sent starters Steve Avila, Jonah Jackson, and Joe Notebloom to IR.
With a rough opening schedule that included away games vs. the Lions, 49ers, and Bears, it’s no shock that this team has had problems winning games. Still, while they enter Week 7 at 1-4, the Rams have been a competitive team. After a shocking, come-from-behind win vs. the 49ers, they outgained the Bears by 58 yards and the Packers by 42 yards, losing both games by less than a TD.
The game against the Packers was the most encouraging, as their defense got help with Williams returning from injury. Not only did they manage to hold Jordan Love to a 57% completion rate in that game, but they also made a big play for a defensive score in Packers territory.
After a bye week that was sorely needed, they may also get more help in Week 7 with Cooper Kupp close to returning.
Week 7—The Rams can pillage the Raiders’ sinking ship
Week 7 brings more good news for the Rams with the Raiders on the schedule. Las Vegas is a combustible mess right now with Davante Adams having been traded to the Jets and a quarterback battle that has no clear winner.
Vegas has been terrible on both sides of the ball this season, ranking out 27th in EPA per rush on defense and dead last in EPA per rush on offense. Meanwhile, this is a pure get-right spot for the Rams, who have a one-two punch of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum at RB that has the Rams’ offense clicking at 4th in EPA per rush.
The Steelers, who rank 23rd in EPA per rush, just posted 32 points against the Raiders last week with Najee Harris—who had averaged 4.1 YPC or less in each start before Week 6—posting 7.6 YPC and 106 yards on the ground in the win. I’ll almost certainly have some exposure to both Rams RBs in the prop market this week, but for early-week betting purposes the move here is pretty simple, take the Rams to cover (and potentially more).
The Bet: Rams -5.5 (-110; FanDuel); Rams -13.5 (+268; bet365); Rams -16.5 (+348)
On top of this being as juicy a matchup on paper, we have some solid trends running in our favor. The duo of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are 24-8 SU when listed as favorites and are also 6-3 ATS as favorites since the start of last season. In short, they’ve rarely played down to their competition, no matter the spot, and have a solid rest advantage this week against a team that got pummeled by a heavy Steelers rushing attack last week.
I took the Rams on Sunday night when they were still at -4.5 and placed it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker, but would play this one at its current level of -5.5. I also think this is a spot where you could think about laddering the Rams through bigger numbers like -13.5 and -16.5, if you wanted to play for a bigger payout. All of the Raiders’ four losses have come by margin to date, and they’ve been blown out by Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Denver; all offenses that rank below the Rams in EPA per play.
Of course, if you want to think even bigger, the Rams’ divisional futures are another area where you could look to back this team. San Francisco (whom the Rams have a win over this season) leads the NFC West at 3-3, but has a meeting with the Chiefs this week. If the 49ers lose and the Rams win LA will effectively be one game out of first.
With our NFL futures tracker showing the Rams as big as +1600 to win this division, a small futures bet isn’t out of the question on them going into Week 7 either.
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The Best of the Best: Get Dwain McFarland’s Industry-Leading Utilization Report before you hit Week 7.
🤬 The Fall of the Titans, NFL-style, LaMarca and Ulrich dive into Week 6’s worst beats (and Tennessee is a headliner again).
📈 Who’s trending up and down? Thor Nystrom has his rankings ahead of Week 8.
🤯 16 legs, $10, half a pack of cigarettes, and a full tank of gas. Even the Blues Brothers would be proud of this parlay hit.
🙏 The Jets still lost (cause Jets) but at least Aaron Rodgers cemented himself as King of the Hail Mary.
🚀 At long last: Davante Adams has been reunited with Aaron Rodgers. The numbers these two have posted together are insane.
NHL Prop Drop—Can Connor McDavid hit the twine on Tuesday?
by Geoff Ulrich
The Oilers have been terrible to start the season. They’re 0-3 and have a paltry 3.23 shooting percentage, which is hysterically bad (no team has ever shot worse than 6.9%, via OilersNation.com). They’ve already lost by multiple goals to two non-playoff teams from last season already in Calgary and Chicago.
On Tuesday, they’ll get a Flyers team that has allowed 22 high-danger scoring chances through two games (the same as the Sharks) and got pummeled by the Flames 6-3 in their last outing on Saturday.
The Oilers are due for shooting regression all around on Tuesday, but for me, it’s very easy to know where to look when this team needs a lift.
The Bet: Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer (+135; FanDuel)
I’ve already placed a McDavid anytime goal bet in our Free NHL Bet Tracker and love the odds we’re getting for him to post his first of the season against the Flyers. McDavid recorded zero shots against a stingy Jets team in Game 1, but managed 5 in his last outing vs. the Flames and has all the more reason to be aggressive with his shot again against the Flyers with the rest of the Oilers’ shooters slumping.
Odds-wise, this has been a solid price to back him at historically. At +135 the implied probability at his current odds is set around 42%, which is right in line with the 0.42 goals per game he averaged last season. However, you also have to factor in that McDavid is likely to be a little more aggressive in this spot with his team 0-3 and the fact the Flyers—whom he scored against last season, and has 11 goals against in 15 career games—are in the middle of a longer Western road trip.
I’ll likely play the over in this game as well, but for prop purposes, I want to be in on McDavid. These are good levels we’re getting to chase his goal prop and he should be fired up to set the tone for his team in Game 4.
Looking for more NHL action this season? Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds below.
