Before we get into my Week 7 NFL bets, let's look at last week.

Overall, Week 6 was close but no cigar.

  • Eagles -8.5 vs. Browns: Can't back the Eagles right now.
  • Ravens -6.5 vs. Commanders: Lamar Jackson & Co. are currently inevitable.
  • Broncos-Chargers Under 35.5: Undone by backdoor Broncos points in the fourth quarter.
  • Raiders +3 vs. Steelers: Not even close (to the negative).
  • Lions -3 at Cowboys: Not even close (to the positive).

In summary, I was 2-3 (-1.25 units), which brings me to 12-13-1 (-1.85 units) for the year. I'm OK with that considering how poorly I performed in Week 2.

That said, if this year you had tailed all my best bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker—before I wrote my weekly articles—then your record would be 13-12-1 (+0.53 units).

And that's why you should regularly check out our bets in the tracker, where we place the bets we're making right as we make them, when they're likely to provide the most value.

And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections.

You can get 10% off with the promo code FREEDMAN.

Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Alright … let's get into Week 7.

Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.

  1. Brief notes on my favorite bets.
  2. Briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
  3. The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
  4. The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Freedman’s Favorite Week 7 NFL Bets

Here are my favorite bets currently available.

  • Packers -2.5 vs. Texans (-120, FanDuel)
  • Lions +115 at Vikings (BetMGM)
  • Commanders-Panthers Over 51.5 (-110, Caesars)
  • Chiefs +105 at 49ers (BetMGM)

Odds and projections as of Wed. 10/16 at 7 am ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.

Packers -2.5 vs. Texans (-120, FanDuel)

The Texans enter this game with significant injury concerns.

On offense, they're without No. 1 WR Nico Collins (hamstring, IR) and could also be without LT Laremy Tunsil (ankle).

On defense, they might be missing four of their back seven defenders in LBs Henry To'oTo'o (concussion) and Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), SS Jimmie Ward (groin), and CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder).

For the Packers, WRs Jayden Reed (ankle) and Dontayvion Wicks (shoulder) are uncertain—but at least the team has uncommon depth at the position and should still be fine with WRs Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Bo Melton.

With HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers at home are 30-17 ATS (22.3% ROI, per Action Network). 

  • Bet in Tracker: -2.5 (-110, Lookahead)
  • Projection: -4.25

Lions +115 at Vikings (BetMGM)

The Vikings are home off a bye, whereas the Lions are playing their second straight road game. Situationally, the spot benefits the Vikings, who this year are 5-0 ATS (91.2% ROI) and 5-0 ML (111.2% ROI).

But I still have the Lions (+5.25) power rated ahead of the Vikings (+3), and it might be meaningful that in this divisional matchup, HC Dan Campbell is 4-0 ATS (89.6% ROI) and 3-1 ML (23.4% ROI) against HC Kevin O'Connell.

And this might not be just a Campbell-O'Connell dynamic.

Within division in general, there has been a big difference in how these two coaches have performed.

  • Campbell in Division: 13-5 ATS (37.3% ROI)
  • O'Connell in Division: 5-8 ATS (-26.4% ROI)

The coaches also have notably divergent histories against teams with records above .500.

  • Campbell vs. Winning Teams: 18-6 ATS (42.9% ROI)
  • O'Connell vs. Winning Teams: 9-8-1 ATS (2.0% ROI)

And the situational spot in the past has been good for the Lions and bad for the Vikings.

  • Campbell as Road Underdog: 13-7 ATS (23.9% ROI)
  • O'Connell as Home Favorite: 4-9 ATS (-40.4% ROI)

With a spread of +2.5, I have the Lions projected at +0.9—and if I like an underdog below the key number of +3, I might as well bet the ML I probably bet this too early in the week but still think I'm on the right side.

  • Bet in Tracker: +108 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: +108.5

Commanders-Panthers Over 51.5 (-110, Caesars)

I noted this bet in passing when highlighting QB Jayden Daniels in my Week 7 Freedman's Favorites.

The logic for this bet is simple: The Commanders put up a lot of points. They rank No. 1 in offensive EPA (0.244, per RBs Don't Matter). And the Panthers allow a lot of points. They're No. 30 in defensive EPA (0.147). 

Perfection.

And it's not just that the Panthers are defensively bad. They're also injured.

This week, they will definitely be without key players at all three levels in DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR), LB Shaq Green-Thompson (Achilles, IR), and FS Jordan Fuller (hamstring, IR), and they might also be without their top pass rusher in EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (shoulder) and top remaining midfield defender in LB Josey Jewell (hamstring), both of whom missed Week 6.

And finally, it doesn't hurt that the Commanders are also subpar on defense, ranking No. 29 in EPA (0.126).

This season, the Commanders and Panthers have been two of the most profitable teams for over bets.

  • Commanders Overs: 5-1 (59.5% ROI) | +8.1 Over Expectation
  • Panthers Overs: 5-1 (59.5% ROI) | +8.8 Over Expectation

It's gonna be so tilting when this number lands on 51.

  • Bet in Tracker: Over 51 (-110, DraftKings)
  • Projection: 53.5

Chiefs +105 at 49ers (BetMGM)

I have the Chiefs (+6) power rated just above the 49ers (+5.75), so it makes sense that the 49ers are favored at home.

But there are other factors to take into account.

First, there's the fact that the market has tended to assign too much of a travel deficit to QB Patrick Mahomes when he has played outside of Kansas City.

  • Mahomes Away/Neutral (ATS): 34-21-3 | 19.0% ROI
  • Mahomes Away/Neutral (ML): 46-12 | 30.3% ROI

Also, there's the fact that the Chiefs enter this game with a three-day rest advantage thanks to their Week 6 bye.

And while the 49ers have extra rest of their own coming off Thursday Night Football, they have some major injury issues, especially on defense, where they're without DT Javon Hargrave (triceps, IR), EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (knee, IR), and SS Talanoa Hufanga (wrist, IR) and might also be missing DT Jordan Elliott (knee), CB Charvarius Ward (knee), and SS Malik Mustapha (ankle).

The Chiefs have injury issues of their own. On offense, they'll be without RB Isiah Pacheco (leg, IR) and WRs Rashee Rice (knee, IR) and Hollywood Brown (shoulder, IR). But the loss of these players has been mitigated by the return of RB Kareem Hunt and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster to the team, and all these injuries were known about heading into the bye, so HC Andy Reid has had sufficient time to game plan around them.

Who would you trust to be able to make injury-driven adjustments? First-year DC Nick Sorensen, the team's fourth DC in five years? … or Reid, a future Hall of Famer and maybe the greatest offensive coach and schemer of all time?

And I haven't even mentioned yet that the 49ers could be without RBs Christian McCaffrey (Achilles, IR) and Jordan Mason (shoulder) on offense and Ks Jake Moody (ankle) and Matthew Wright (shoulder) on special teams.

The 49ers offense is based on their ground attack. It could be a big deal if they're without their top runners. And this game could easily come down to a field goal. It's almost certainly not insignificant that the 49ers could be using a third-string K in this contest.

Is it meaningful that Reid is 4-0 ATS (92.2% ROI) and 4-0 ML (78.5% ROI) against 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan? Maybe.

It's probably more meaningful that Shanahan has proven he can blow any double-digit lead and Mahomes has proven that no double-digit deficit is insurmountable.

But here's the biggest factor to take into account: Mahomes as an underdog is an absolute beast.

  • Mahomes as Underdog (ATS): 11-1-1 | 72.9% ROI
  • Mahomes as Underdog (ML): 10-3 | 87.0% ROI

I'm not saying that Mahomes should never be a dog … but as long as Mahomes is still Mahomes and Reid is still his coach … he should almost never be a dog.

With a spread of +1.5 and a projection of -1.1, the Chiefs are an ideal ML bet.

  • Bet in Tracker: +102 (Lookahead)
  • Projection: -116.5

Week 7 Games That Have My Attention

Falcons -3 vs. Seahawks (-110, Caesars): This week the Seahawks could be without starting perimeter CBs Riq Woolen (ankle) and Tre Brown (ankle) and experienced backup CB Artie Burns (foot).

Bills -9 vs. Titans (-110, DraftKings): In the four games that QB Will Levis has started and finished, the Titans are 0-4 ATS (-100% ROI).

Bengals -6.5 at Browns (-110, ESPN Bet): With the trade of WR Amari Cooper, the Browns have signaled that they're entering a new (and probably noncompetitive) phase of the campaign.

Eagles -3 at Giants (-110, FanDuel): In my bones, I believe that CBs Cor'Dale Flott and Deonte Banks have no chance of hanging with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Steelers +110 vs. Jets (FanDuel): HC Mike Tomlin as a home underdog is 19-6-3 ATS (43.0% ROI) and 17-11 ML (53.0% ROI).

Buccaneers-Ravens Over 48.5 (-110, Caesars): Bucs overs are 4-2 (27.0% ROI) with a league-high +9.25 cover margin. Ravens overs are 5-1 (59.5% ROI, +7.25).

Cardinals +3 vs. Chargers (-115, MGM): QB Kyler Murray as an underdog is 27-17-2 ATS (17.8% ROI) and 18-27-1 ML (17.8% ROI). 

Contest Picks For NFL Week 7

Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.

Right now I'm 14-11, and last week I had log-in issues so I used it as my mandatory skip week. With the early bye, I'm now No. 1120 of 3,637 entries. Not terrible but now significantly outside the money. Gotta get better.

If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 7, these might be the ones (based on the contests, consensus, and sharp lines, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).

  • Giants +3.5 vs. Eagles: Consensus +3
  • Seahawks +3.5 at Falcons: Consensus +3
  • Packers -2.5 vs. Texans: Consensus -3
  • Rams -6.5 vs. Raiders: Partial -7
  • Chiefs +1.5 at 49ers: Consensus +1

I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines move.

Week 7 Survivor Picks

I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.

Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 7, under the assumption that in Weeks 1-6 I used the Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, Bengals, Bears, and Eagles.

  • Commanders -7.5 vs. Panthers: The Commanders might not be favored by this many points again, they're at home, and it's hard to go wrong picking against the Panthers.
  • Rams -7 vs. Raiders: The Rams are home off the bye, and the Raiders have QB and WR issues.
  • Jaguars -5.5 vs. Patriots (in London): The Jags have a massive travel advantage because they played in England last week … but I can't imagine picking a 1-5 team. Then again … that might make the Jags the perfect team to pick, and they'll probably never be a bigger favorite.
  • Bills -9 vs. Titans: I see it, but nah. I probably want to save the Bills for later in the season, and they're at a rest disadvantage coming off Monday Night Football.

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Points Per Game (PPG)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.