Here are five of my favorite Week 7 player prop bets currently available. For all my Week 7 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

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Odds and projections are as of Thu. 10/17 at 8:30 pm ET.

Kyren Williams Anytime TD

  • Odds: -175 (Caesars)
  • My Projection: 0.97 TDs | -456.8 Odds to Score

Williams is one of my favorite Week 7 fantasy RBs.

His setup is perfect: The Rams are favored by a TD, they're at home off the bye, and they're facing a Raiders defense ranked No. 28 in rush DVOA (5.4%, per FTN) and missing its top interior lineman in DT Christian Wilkins (foot, IR).

And it's not as if Williams needs much of a situational boost anyway: In five games he has 431 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage on 95 carries and 15 targets. With WRs Puka Nacua (knee, IR) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) uncertain for at least one more week, Williams could once again surpass 20 touches, as he has done in each of his past three games, and that kind of usage would give him an excellent chance to find the end zone.

This year, he has scored a TD in every game. Last year, he scored 15 TDs total in nine of 13 games.

At -175, Williams has a 63.6% implied probability to score a TD (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think his true odds are closer to 80%.

Derrick Henry Anytime TD

  • Odds: -196 (Caesars)
  • My Projection: 0.89 TDs | -309.6 Odds to Score

The Buccaneers are theoretically stout on the defensive line with DTs Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, but they're No. 25 in defensive rush EPA (per RBs Don't Matter), and with someone like Henry I'm skeptical the opposing defense even matters.

On the season, Henry has a league-high 11 carries inside the five-yard line, which he has converted into five goal-line TDs, and he leads the NFL with 753 yards and nine TDs from scrimmage.

With a TD in all six games this year and a solid spread of -3.5, Henry should be able to score yet again. 

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing TDs

  • Odds: -167 (FanDuel)
  • My Projection: 1.9 TDs

I bet this last week, it hit, so now I'll go back to it every week for the rest of the year. That's how sports betting works.

Love is No. 2 with 282.8 yards passing per game, and I like the Packers -2.5 against the Texans: On defense, the Texans might be missing four of their back seven defenders in LBs Henry To'oTo'o (concussion) and Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), SS Jimmie Ward (groin), and CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder).

Against an injured defense, Love has the opportunity to go off at home, where HC Matt LaFleur is 30-17 ATS (22.3% ROI, per Action Network).

There's a lot to like about Love's situation, but even regardless of that, he would appeal to me because of his history of success in this market. In every game this year, he has hit the over on his prop with two-plus TDs. Last year, he went over 1.5 TDs passing in 11 of 14 games after the Week 6 bye.

The last time Love didn't hit the over on his passing TDs prop was Week 14.

On the season, Love is No. 1 with an 8.2% TD rate and three TDs passing per game.

I get that -167 is a lot of juice, but last week it was -200, so it's all relative, and I think the odds should be closer to -267 than the current market.

Chigoziem Okonkwo SGP: Over 1.5 Receptions | Under 16.5 Receiving Yards

  • Odds: +378 (FanDuel)
  • My Projection: 2.0 Receptions | 20.2 Receiving Yards

The two legs of this same-game parlay are inversely correlated, and my projections suggest as much … but I think the +378 odds are too large to pass up.

With -198 and -114 odds, the two separate legs would combine for +182.5 odds if they were entirely uncorrelated. They're not … but when comes the point of value?

Every sportsbook is different, but the odds for this SGP are as low as +212 and no higher than +345 at other books.

  • Caesars: +212 
  • BetMGM: +310
  • DraftKings: +345

FanDuel tends to give the most generous odds for inversely correlated SGPs out of any book in the domestic market, and given the other odds available, I tend to think that +378 offers value.

On top of that, there's the fact that Okonkwo has had more than one reception and fewer than 17 yards receiving in four of five games this year. His 80% hit rate on this SGP is destined to regress—but there might be something relatively sticky about his recent performance, given that (with a new playcaller in HC Brian Callahan) his efficiency and usage has dropped markedly since last season.

  • 2023: 6.9 yards per target | 9.8 yards per reception | 6.8 aDOT
  • 2024: 4.4 yards per target | 5.2 yards per reception | 2.8 aDOT

Yes, yes, yes.

With his ridiculously low aDOT, Okonkwo is a perfect candidate for what on the surface seems like an inversely correlated SGP, because the way he's targeted in his offense makes him both very likely to convert a high percentage of his targets into catches and also translates most of his receptions into a reduced number of yards.

In other words, the sportsbooks might be likely to overvalue this parlay's inverse correlation, thereby creating value for bettors.

Jayden Daniels Under 21.5 Completions

  • Odds: -118 (Caesars)
  • My Projection: 19.5

Daniels is one of my favorite Week 7 fantasy QBs.

I think he's absolutely going to smash this week. He's good: No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.210). And the Panthers are bad: No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.254).

On top of that, they're injured. This week, they will definitely be without key players at all three levels in DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR), LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles, IR), and FS Jordan Fuller (hamstring, IR), and they might also be without their top pass rusher in EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (shoulder) and top remaining midfield defender in LB Josey Jewell (hamstring), both of whom missed Week 6.

But Daniels could still have a massive week without needing to complete more than 21.5 passes.

He could run for much of his production, given that he leads all starting QBs with a 15% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

And he could pile up yards in the air with a relatively low number of pass attempts, given that he's No. 4 with 8.5 yards per attempt and the Panthers are No. 6 with 8.0.

Finally, the Commanders are -8 favorites at home. They might not need to throw the ball much to get a convincing win.