In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
What To Watch For Early Sunday: There’s nothing like a little appetizer and some antipasto before a feast, so every Friday I share my notebook with you lovely people.
Bon Appetit!
NE (1-5) at JAX (1-5): Drake Maye gave the Pats an immediate shot of life with a tasty matchup on deck against a leaky Jacksonville defense. How will the rookie respond to his second pro game having such an interrupted schedule? Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence (who’s played pretty well in his past two games) spent the week preparing and sipping tea with crumpets. We may finally get an international shootout before the sun’s fully up on the West Coast.
TEN (1-4) at BUF (4-2): The steady drip of cash toward Buffalo accelerated into short-term panic buying after the acquisition of Amari Cooper, moving the line a full point. Not only did the Bills need an explosive playmaker in general, but Cooper represents the X-type WR to beat press-man coverage and earn deep shots downfield—a square peg for the square hole. The Titans will try and establish the run to keep Josh Allen off the field, but whether they’ll be able to score enough to compete with a top-tier team is yet to be seen.
SEA (3-3) at ATL (4-2): The Seahawk defense that played so well out of the gate has to be the story. During its current three-game losing streak, Seattle has allowed 430-plus yards and 36 points per game. Not great timing to be facing Atlanta, which is cooking with Kirk Cousins under center. The Falcons are amidst a three-game run of wins that saw ATL hang 100 points on the board. And the Falcons finally started funneling the ball through Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Expect fireworks in the dirty-dirty.
HOU (5-1) at GB (4-2): Must-watch TV, let’s go! This matchup between the Texans and Packers is precisely why we watch the NFL—two ascendant teams reaching peak powers, led by franchise QBs with their eyes on the ultimate prize. If there’s one on-field schematic I’m watching for, it’s whether or not the Packers decide to dial up more blitzes—they’re currently bottom 3 in the league and I can’t imagine actively looking to give C.J. Stroud time to operate.
CIN (2-4) at CLE (1-5): I don’t think many people marked this matchup on the calendar for peak criticality but make no mistake—the Bengals must win to keep realistic postseason hopes alive. There should be no problem on paper for CIN facing the Browns, who just jettisoned their best offensive weapon while continuing to roll out Deshaun Watson and his 5.1 YPA. Simply put, on Sunday we find out if Joey B. and the Bengals are for real.
MIA (2-3) at IND (3-3): Nice to have Anthony Richardson back under center for Indy, though I bet you the Dolphins wish they had Joe Flacco right about now. I love Mike McDaniel’s creativity in terms of spacing and how he’s pushed thinking to change in a very rigid space. That said, the Dolphins remain guilty of malpractice for their treatment of the backup QB position, in particular knowing the starter’s historical record. Long story long, Miami’s unwatchable on offense. So I’m curious to see if this defense (which has been beating up on weak competition), can stifle Shane Steichen directing A-Rich under center. Be thankful this isn’t a standalone game.
DET (4-1) at MIN (5-0): Another clash of the titans on deck in the late window. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the good fortune of skilled schedule-making. Listen, I stare at NFL RedZone every Sunday for hours on end, mouth agape like any good red-blooded American—but there’s nothing like marquee NFL matchups. How will Detroit’s all-or-nothing defense respond after a great showing against a well-rested Viking squad off the bye? I cannot wait for everything about this one, shootout or rock fight, you know where my focus lies at 4 p.m. ET.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Running Against The Wind
- The New York Prop Exchange
Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽♂️🏈—Dish Best Served Cold
If the best revenge is truly living well, then Saquon Barkley must be feeling pretty good heading back to his old stomping grounds in NJ. The Eagles weathered a slew of nasty injuries before the bye but will be heading to MetLife at relatively full strength a game over .500 determined to hold serve with the first-place Commanders.
Philly’s easily a top-5 rushing unit between excellent line play and the threat of Jalen Hurts demanding attention. The Eagles rank inside the top 5 in rushes/games (31.2), rushing yards per game (146.2), and maybe most importantly, yards before contact per rush (2.15). Space before contact leads to explosive rushes, evidenced in Barkley’s underlying stats—+0.03 EPA/rush, 5.2 yards/carry, and 1.6 rush yards over expectation/carry.
Even coming off a down game versus what’s still a tough Cleveland front seven, Barkley’s averaging over 96 yards/game on the ground (below).
Can someone say buy the dip?
Conversely, analyzing the Giants' run D through totals alone will mislead. Check this out. Despite allowing only a well-above-average 116.2 rush yards/game, it’s based on low totals (22.2 attempts/game) because the efficiency metrics stink—5.2 yards/carry, 1.83 yards before contact/rush are both near the bottom of the board and partly responsible for the six 20-yard rushes to date.
Call it a revenge game, a divisional showdown, or whatever you like—the engine of the Philadelphia offense should flow through Saquon Barkley on Sunday. Just to make sure I didn’t wind up too far out of pocket projecting a mean output a dozen yards over the current line, our own Dwain McFarland agrees.
THE BET: Saquon Barkley Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115) FanDuel
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Start the pigskin weekend with Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton on the Week 8 College Football Pregame Show, Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
🏈 It’s Love/Hate, with Matthew Berry never vetoing, but with great Week 7 player takes.
🪜 Ladder Kyren Williams TDs? Geoff Ulrich runs through all the scoring scenarios in Week 7 Anytime TD Bets.
🚑 Dwain and Ian update the latest Injuries impacting NFL Week 7.
🥊 Hernandez vs. Pereira highlights our Best Bets for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.
The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Super Demario
Get your bubble, baked beans, fried bread, black pudding, and squeak—we’re off to merry old Britain. New England’s front office finally capitulated to the rather obvious reality that Jacoby Brissett wasn’t the best chance at winning, or the growth of Drake Maye for that matter. Every young QB journey inevitably contains ups and downs, but I left his debut tape pretty impressed. I clipped a few videos on X here.
Anyway, Maye understood the assignment when he needed a completion—hit DeMario Douglas (6-92-1) underneath. The 6th-round sophomore from Liberty College produced nicely on unquestionably elite utilization versus a good Texan defense—32% target/route run, 29% team target share, and 37% team air yards.
The young Patriots’ battery gets a Jaguars defense that may not have traveled across the pond—but still can’t hide ranking 30th or worse in EPA/dropback (-0.31), opposition passer rating (114.4), completions/game (25.5), passing yards/game (267.7), and 20-yard completions (27!). The Jags show particular vulnerability defending the slot, allowing (8-86-2) per game to the position.
I consider these plays mostly game-script independent—if New England goes off, Douglas likely contributed and if they fall way behind, we could get our catches late underneath preventive shell coverage.
THE BET: DeMario Douglas Over 4.5 Receptions (+105) BetMGM
