Geoff Ulrich presents the Best Bets for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets on Sunday Night Football in Week 7.

We have a battle of two higher-profile franchises coming at us on Sunday Night in Week 7 with the 2-4 Jets flying to Pittsburgh to take on the 4-2 Steelers. 

Both of these teams made big personnel moves this week, which are likely to have a big impact on how this game plays out. The Jets added Davante Adams via trade shortly after suffering a heartbreaking defeat to Buffalo, whom they outplayed for large portions of their Week 6 loss. Adams is going to give the Jets another dynamic playmaker on offense, which will hopefully help their efficiency, which has been lacking late in games (and cost them a couple of wins already). 

The Jets rank just 19th in EPA per dropback heading into this game, but with Adams going against a Steelers defense that has been fading against the pass of late, this could be a sneaky breakout spot for Aaron Rodgers. 

The Steelers made a huge move of their own, albeit an internal one. They chose to announce Russell Wilson as starter this week, relegating Justin Fields to the bench, even after he started the season 4-2. Fields ranks 16th in EPA per play among all QBs and ran for 59 yards and 2 TDs last week against the Raiders. The passing game could improve with Wilson, but if he’s rusty, the loss of Fields' rushing dynamic has the chance to hurt the Steelers, especially against the Jets who have a great pass rush and a playmaker ub Sauce Gardner lurking in their secondary. 

So will the Steelers' hot run continue, or is this the spot to jump on the Jets bandwagon? I’ll try and answer that and more below as we break down the spread, total, and props from this game. 

Jets -1.5 (-110; bet365) vs. Steelers +1.5 (-110; bet365) 38.5

 

Injury notes Jets:

Out

Questionable

Will play

Injury Notes Steelers:

Out

Questionable

Will play

The Steelers lost Frazier during last week’s game, which is something to note given the move to Wilson under center. Frazier had played extremely well and will be replaced by Ryan McCollum, who did play well last week, but faces a much more difficult test this week against a Jets team that is fourth in sacks per game. It’s a potentially big advantage the Jets can exploit. 

On the Jets’ side of things, starting corner D.J. Reed is very questionable and missed most of practice this week. Reed being out would open up the field for the Steelers wide receivers, although it’s worth questioning whether Wilson can take advantage in his first start. We should expect Sauce Gardner to tail George Pickens in this matchup, but it’s also likely the Steelers will try and move Pickens around more if Reed is out. 

Spread and Total

I don’t necessarily hate the move to Russell Wilson for the Steelers, but I do think it’s something the Jets may be able to take advantage of. New York is only 27th in success rate vs. the run and not having Justin Fields on the other side of the ball now likely allows their defense to sit back a little and shell down (and force Wilson to beat them via the short passing game). 

Maybe Wilson comes out of the gate hot, but it’s not something I want to bet on. On the other side, you have Aaron Rodgers who has had some tough matchups against top-tier defenses like Denver and Minnesota of late, but played very well against Buffalo, throwing for 8.4 yards per attempt and 294 yards. Pittsburgh’s pass defense has regressed a little since the start of the season  (271 yards allowed, on average, over their last three games), and with Davante Adams back the Jets should be able to move the ball through the air consistently—and force the Steelers into more dropbacks than they want in Wilson’s first game. 

I like the Jets at anything under -2.0 in this spot. The mid-week move to a new QB just feels like a fancy play syndrome type-of-move from Arthur Smith and Mike Tomlin, which could work out eventually, but also has a lot of downside in a matchup against a team like the Jets, who have solid disruptors on the defensive side of the ball.  

I’m passing on the total, but it’s worth noting that our Game Model has the under projected as a strong play. We have this game total projected at 37.4, so if you can find a 39.0 with small juice, the under is certainly worth considering in this spot. 

I break down the best props and more for Steelers vs. Jets below. 

Steelers vs. Jets Best Bets: 

Jaylen Warren Over 11.5 Rec Yards (-110; bet365)

Jaylen Warren’s props remain quite depressed after his return from injury in Week 6. Warren posted only 6 carries for 7 yards and 3 receptions for 11 yards last week, but his usage was solid. He played on 34% of the snaps and had a 13% target share in a game the Steelers controlled from the onset. 

We have Warren projected for 14.0 receiving yards and 31 rush yards this week, so his overs in both categories are projected as strong plays. However, with Russell Wilson under center I’d rather play the over on Warren’s receiving total. The Jets have a decent pass rush and have allowed some big passing plays from opposing RBs out of the backfield the last couple of games. Wilson also utilized Javonte Williams a lot last year in Denver and Warren is the best pass-catching back on Pittsburgh’s roster. 

When it comes down to it, with the edges being similar, I’d rather bet on Warren popping for a big play or two on a screen, as opposed to him grinding out a lot of rush yards given that he could see limited carries with Najee Harris coming off a big game. 

Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 receptions (-115; bet365)

I’m looking to play the overreaction, panic, and outright bearishness on Garrett Wilson this week, as some people think he is going to fade into oblivion with Davante Adams now on the team. Wilson is just too good a target earner to see a massive drop in production, and we still have Wilson projected for 9.1 targets and 5.1 receptions this week—giving us a very solid edge considering the over on his 4.5-reception prop is still available at -120 or better in a lot of spots. 

We’ll see how this plays out long term, but I think buying into the fear here makes sense with Adams coming off injury and integrating into a new team. 

Underdog SNF Week 7 (5-way; 12.25x)

This is a double-correlated 5-way ticket so the 12.25x payout isn't super high, but I do think this is a spot where it makes sense to take advantage of the low passing totals we have on the receivers and QBs, on both sides of the ball. 

We have Russell Wilson projected for 196.0 and Aaron Rodgers projected for 231 in our aggregate projections on Fantasy Life, and both totals do seem quite low. The Steelers have allowed an average of 271 pass yards over their last three games and the Jets are banged up in the secondary, with Reed potentially out for this game. 

You could certainly play Wilson and Rodgers’ HIGHERs on their own. Still, I already discussed Garrett Wilson and Jaylen Warren’s props above, and both HGHERs make for sensible adds and project to be solid, with edges on their own. 

The Steelers also rank just 20th in red-zone efficiency and the Jets allow an average of 2.5 FG attempts per game (7th highest in the league). Chris Boswell is also a great kicker, who is already 6-for-7 from 50+ this season, and with the Steelers not having Fields as a rushing option in the red zone anymore, it’s not hard to see them settling for FGs a little more often in this spot.