One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 8 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Current Line: -110; DraftKings
- Bet To: -3.0 (-110)
I’m taking a little bit of a risk here, but I think the payoff is potentially significant. The Dolphins have been a disaster ever since Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury. They’ve had three other players take snaps at quarterback—Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and Tim Boyle—and each has been more inefficient than the next. They’ve dropped four of their past five games, so they have an uphill battle if they’re going to live up to preseason expectations.
However, Tagovailoa is expected to return to the practice field this week following his Week 2 concussion. Head injuries are obviously not to be taken lightly, but Tagovailoa has now had five weeks to recover after landing on the IR. As long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks at practice, there’s a good chance he returns to the lineup Sunday vs. the Cardinals.
As long as that’s the case, the Dolphins should be favored by more than a field goal. After all, this line was Dolphins -6.0 when the lines were initially released during the offseason. The Dolphins still have some of the most explosive offensive talent in football, and they should return to being one of the top offenses in football with Tagovailoa under center.
The Cardinals aren’t strong defensively, ranking 28th in defensive EPA, so it’s a perfect spot for Tagovailoa to make his return. We could end up picking up a few additional points of spread value when he’s ultimately ruled in, so this is a great candidate to lock in early.
Seattle Seahawks (+3.0) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Current Line: -115; DraftKings
- Bet To: +3.0 (-120)
The Seahawks had to deal with an absolute bear of a schedule from Weeks 4 through 6. They had to play three games in an 11-day span, and two of them were against the Lions and 49ers. Those are arguably the two best teams in the NFC, and the Seahawks dropped all three contests.
Even good teams can struggle in those types of spots, and I believe the Seahawks are a good team. They were a perfect 3-0 to start the year, and they bounced back with a big win over the Falcons in Week 6. They did that despite being without two cornerbacks, including their top cover guy in Riq Woolen.
There’s a chance that the Seahawks get a bit healthier heading into this matchup vs. the Bills, but even if they don’t, +3.0 points still feels like too much. The Bills have not been a particularly impressive team of late. They dropped back-to-back games vs. the Ravens and Texans, and they narrowly squeaked out a win vs. the Jets. They did manage to beat the Titans by 24 points, but that game was a lot closer than the final score indicated. The Titans were actually up at halftime, but the Bills managed to pull away with 17 points in the fourth quarter.
One thing to note is that DK Metcalf did exit early vs. the Falcons with a knee injury. However, the early reports are pretty positive. There’s a chance that Metcalf simply wasn’t put back into the game because the Seahawks were already in control. I’m tentatively expecting him to be in the lineup.
Finally, Geno Smith has a decent track record as an underdog. He’s 23-18-2 ATS for his career when getting points, including 9-6-0 as a home underdog. I think the Bills are pretty overvalued at this point, and the Seahawks are good enough to try to fade them.
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Current Line: -115; FanDuel
- Play To: -6.5 (-120) or -7.0 (-105)
I have not been on the Chargers very often this season. In fact, this might be the first time. I remain unconvinced that their “pound the rock” style of offense is conducive to winning in the modern game, even with Justin Herbert at quarterback. They are 3-2 heading into Monday Night Football, but they’ve played an absolute cupcake of a schedule: their three wins have come against the Raiders, Panthers, and Broncos.
The good news is that things aren’t going to get any harder for them this week. They’re taking on the Saints, who were absolutely walloped on Thursday Night Football last week. Their offense has been very inefficient since losing Derek Carr to an injury, while their defense has surrendered 84 points and nearly 1,000 yards in the last two games.
Carr may return to practice this week, but he is reportedly a longshot to return to the lineup. Additionally, Rashid Shaheed is going to miss the rest of the season with an injury, while Chris Olave missed last week’s game with a concussion. There’s a chance that Olave returns to the lineup, but he’s still going to have to catch passes from either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener.
The Chargers’ style might not let them contend with the best teams in football, but it should allow them to roll through the cellar dwellers. The Saints certainly fit that description at the moment. This line is already up to Chargers -7.0 (-120) on DraftKings, so the FanDuel price stands out as a major outlier. I’d grab a -6.5 or minimally juiced -7.0 while they’re available.
