Here are five of my favorite Week 8 NFL player props currently available. For all my Week 8 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.
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Odds and projections are as of Thu. 10/24 at 11 pm ET.
NFL Player Props For Week 8
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing TDs
- Odds: -184 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: 2.0 PaTDs | -350.7 Odds to Go Over 1.5 PaTDs
Love is one of the players I highlighted in my Week 8 Freedman's Favorites (QB Edition).
Last week, I successfully bet the over on Love's passing TD prop. The week before, the same.
There's a decent chance I'll be on Love's over every week for the rest of the year. That's how sports betting works.
In every game this year, he has hit the over on his prop with two-plus TDs. Last year, he went over 1.5 TDs passing in 11 of 14 games after the Week 6 bye.
The last time Love didn't hit the over on his passing TDs prop was Week 14.
On the season, Love is easily No. 1 with an 8.4% TD rate and three TDs passing per game.
This week, I have Love projected for a league-high 2.0 TDs passing and a 77.8% chance of going over his prop of 1.5, which means that I see significant value in this bet, given that his -184 odds carry a 64.8% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
And I'm almost tempted to bet the over on 2.5 TDs passing (+175, DraftKings) because of the attractive plus odds. Considering that Love has gone over that number in three of five games this year, it would not at all be a stretch for him to get three-plus this week.
The Jaguars are No. 1 in most passing TDs allowed this year with 2.3 per game, and they're No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.304, per RBs Don't Matter).
Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing TDs
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
- My Projection: 1.5 PaTDs | -130.3 Odds to Go Under 1.5 PaTDs
Do you know how many TDs Mahomes has thrown in October?
Zero.
ZERO.
And the month is almost over.
Sure, there was a bye week in October, but the fact remains that we're a long way removed from the MVP versions of Mahomes who passed for a league-high 50 and 41 TDs in 2018 and 2022.
Last year, he had a modest 27 TDs passing. This year, he has six in six games.
The addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins should theoretically help out Mahomes, but Hopkins isn't much of a separator at this point, and neither is TE Travis Kelce. WRs Hollywood Brown (shoulder, IR) and Rashee Rice (knee, IR) are distant memories, and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) has already been ruled out for Week 8.
With his (lack of) pass catchers, Mahomes wouldn't have a great chance to go over 1.5 TDs passing anyway—and now with RB Kareem Hunt (three TDs rushing in three games) the team has less incentive or need for Mahomes to pass near the goal line.
For his career, Mahomes has a 6.0% TD rate … but this year he has a career-low 3.2%. At some point, that number is likely to improve, but since last year he has a lowly 4.2%. Mahomes is still one of the league's best QBs, and yet—in terms of throwing TDs—it's possible that mediocrity is his new normal, at least while he's in his current circumstances.
This year, Mahomes has gone under 1.5 TDs passing in four of six games.
Dak Prescott Under 2.5 Carries
- Odds: -135 (DraftKings)
- My Projection: 2.0
Prescott is now 31 years old, and since passing the age Rubicon he has exhibited even less willingness to run the football.
Before his season-ending (and arguably career-altering) 2020 leg injury, Prescott was a consistent runner. And even after his injury he still ran at a respectable rate despite being less effective overall. This year, though, his rushing frequency and efficiency have cratered.
- 2016-20: 3.8 carries per game | 5.1 yards per carry
- 2021-23: 3.3 carries per game | 3.9 yards per carry
- 2024: 1.5 carries per game | 2.8 yards per carry
The real issue is that, while his usage in the designed run game has declined a little, Prescott's scrambling usage has significantly dropped (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
- 2021: 6% designed rush rate | 3% scramble rate
- 2022: 6% designed rush rate | 4% scramble rate
- 2023: 6% designed rush rate | 5% scramble rate
- 2024: 4% designed rush rate | 2% scramble rate
In not one game this year has Prescott had more than 2.5 carries, and his carry prop under is 6-0 on the season.
As a road underdog of more than a field goal, Prescott isn't likely to add extra carries to his ledger with annoying end-of-game kneeldowns, and the 49ers are No. 3 in fewest QB carries allowed this year with 3.1 (league median is 4.4).
Rachaad White Under 12.5 Carries
- Odds: -120 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: 8.2
At the beginning of the season, White's carry prop was 15.5, and it steadily dropped from there (with three straight unders) to a demoralizing 7.0 last week (with three straight overs)---but now it has jumped back up to 12.5, where it was in Week 2.
Why the move?
Three thoughts.
- Rookie RB Bucky Irving (toe) missed Wednesday and Thursday practices and is highly uncertain for this game. If he's out, White could see a boost in carries.
- The Falcons are No. 27 in defensive rush SR (44.7%), and against them, lead RBs are 5-1 to the over on their carry prop. When facing the Falcons, opposing RBs might warrant a usage boost.
- Without WRs Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle, IR), the Buccaneers might rely more on the running game. Hence, more carries for White.
But I'm not buying it.
White has gone over 12.5 carries just once this year—and that was in Week 1. With a paltry 3.7 yards per carry this year and for his career, White has exhibited himself to be an uninspiring committee leader.
The team will almost certainly not feel the need to go out of its way to get White carries, especially since No. 3 RB Sean Tucker has flashed recently (19-165-1 rushing, 4-65-1 receiving on five targets) and can likely step into Irving's No. 2 role, thereby keeping White's usage in check.
Travis Kelce Under 63.5 ReYds
- Odds: -115 (BetRivers)
- My Projection: 55.8
I don't want to belabor this. Kelce is averaging a career-low 6.8 yards per target and the fewest targets per game (6.0) since QB Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018.
The result: A career-low 40.8 receiving yards per game.
Even with a good matchup—the Raiders are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (31.1%, per FTN), and without SS Marcus Epps (knee, IR)---Kelce's unlikely to hit this number.
And as big road favorites of more than a TD, the Chiefs might rely heavily on the running game anyway, resulting in fewer targets (and thus yards) for all the pass catchers, including Kelce.
