In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
NFL Blitz, Afternoon Delight: Each Sunday, I crack open my marble notebook to share some of my personal hand notes and help you finalize your prep on the afternoon slate.
If you missed the first half, here are Friday’s early-game breakdowns for your enjoyment.
Saints (2-5) at Chargers (3-3): What to watch for couldn’t be clearer for me on either side. Can the Saints’ defense stop the bleeding with Pete Werner back on duty after allowing 110 points in three weeks? It’s not necessarily a tall order on paper either, the Chargers scored only +23 once … against the Panthers. Flip that same matchup on its head for my focus regarding LAC. Can Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers score in a spot they’re supposed to? Dropping another game here makes four losses out of five for the Bolts, along with any hope of buying talent into the trade deadline.
Bills (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3): Seven weeks in and Seattle’s playing to an average combined game total of 49, begging an obvious question for the Hawks. Can last year’s 20th overall pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba step in admirably for missing alpha WR DK Metcalf? If not, SEA’s up the creek without a paddle because Amari Cooper looked like the missing stone in Joe Brady’s Infinity Gauntlet. A true X-type wideout to stretch the defense vertically, providing an out for Josh Allen on contested one-on-one balls. Cooper sets the rest of the pass catchers into better-fitting roles. Keon Coleman can play the flank with Khalil Shakir in the slot … where they belong. This iteration of the Bills is built to win it all.
Bears (4-2) at Commanders (2-5): Forgive any brevity, I’m leaving this one open-ended for now (as I change my Survivor pick away from CHI). Jayden Daniels, one of the league’s most determinative players, logged a limited practice Friday (rib) and currently stands as a true game-time decision. I wouldn’t make a move until we know what’s going on under center for Washington, but I’m also pumping the brakes on a Bears’ breakout regardless—Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt’s defense has played as well as anyone the last month.
Panthers (1-6) at Broncos (4-3): Denver hit the schedule lotto this season, seemingly lining up every week against opponents at their weakest. This time Sean Payton gets a league-worst Carolina defense (34.7 PPG) that’s also missing its three best players, now forced to turn to last year’s first overall draft pick, Bryce Young. The game plan for Denver is simple—if you want to be considered a contender, don’t mess this up.
Cowboys (3-3) at 49ers (3-4): A true testament to league parity and its inherent variance, it’s hard to believe neither Dallas nor San Fran would be entering Week 8 over .500. Both coming off tough losses, there’s only one thing I’m really looking for—enough food and cold drinks to get me through this epic tilt. Call it the old-school bettor in me, but the answer to this one is not on the spreadsheet. Dallas desperately needs to establish a struggling ground game against a SF front seven that hasn’t allowed a single 90-yard rusher in 2024.
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
ODDS FOR THE REST OF THE SLATE
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Say It Loud, Say It Stroud!
- Fly, DeVonta, Fly!
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Say It Loud, Say It Stroud!
The streaking Colts gallop to the Lone Star State, winners of two in a row (cough, Dolphins and Titans, cough) to face Houston on Sunday. Honestly, Texan QB C.J. Stroud’s passing line at O235.5 jumped out to me, feeling low on its face. Afraid of misplaced bias in my boy, I actually wound up starting with our site projections and capping this one in reverse. Fear not, resident geniuses and all-around great guys Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman agree we’re going over by right around 10 yards. Let’s see why …
Everything about this game feels slightly mispriced to me. I think Stroud’s being punished in the market erroneously for two games that mean very little to me. The first was an insanely positive game script against the Pats that removed him from the scheme early, before face-planting against a tough Packer defense. So what?
Stroud’s still amidst a productive season (+0.15 EPA/attempt) and lined up for a major bounce-back Sunday off the double-bottom at home, where he excels.
Last year’s second overall pick rocks at home—311.1 passing yards/game, 8.7 yards/attempt, 106 passer rating, 4.2 TD:INT. Nice.
Houston’s set to take on a Colts secondary that we could say is experiencing an opposite effect. Check it out. Through five games Indy easily ranked in the bottom-5 against the pass (image left) after Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence posted back-to-back-to-back 310-plus-yard games. The Colts would go on to cede only 256 total yards through the air over two games, significantly improving their season-long data.
So do we think the Colts magically got better or did they happen to face Will Levis plus the Miami combo (image right) of Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley? You decide …
We got the man, at home, with the beefy implied team total, and the projections to boot. What could possibly go wrong?
THE BET: C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 Pass Yards (-110) FanDuel
WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS ARE OUT THERE?
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🔮 All you need is Love. Freedman delivers winning Week 8 props.
🏆 Need an NFL DFS fix? We’ve got you covered.
💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.
📊 Projections? It’s a full slate and we have projections for every Week 8 player.
🤑 Walk(er) across the goal line … Week 8 Anytime TDs.
👀 32 Facts, 32 Teams … Ian drops some knowledge that could help with props.
A Warm Reception🔥🏈—Fly, DeVonta, Fly!
This one played out in my head like an introductory course on reception prop finding. First, we start by identifying a high combined team total (47.5, check). Then, we attach ourselves to a good player (DeVonta Smith, check) on a prolific offense (Eagles, check), making sure they’re also facing a decent opponent, able to push them into the second half (Bengals, check).
Oops, I almost forgot to check under the bed for narratives … and look, there’s one now! I’d call it more squeaky-wheel adjacent than anything since Smith, the consummate professional never complained once, despite being badgered nonstop about racking up only -2 yards on a single catch versus NYG.
Lou Anarumo has done a nice job stunting bad offenses (NE, NYG, CLE) by mixing up the Bengals’ defensive schematics, but they’ve also proven to be gettable at times. Conversely, good teams, especially those with mobile QBs (WAS, BAL), have managed to do work against CIN, taking advantage of their league-worst tackle rate—and therein lies the rub.
I’ve gotten rug-pulled a few times by injuries this year so I waited for confirmation and it’s a done deal. Philly brass announced that Dallas Goedert will indeed miss Sunday’s tilt. This presumably opens up all the underneath targets for our guy Smith, who’s gone over 64 yards every game this season until last week’s blowout.
No chart has ever screamed BUY THE DIP more (below) …
THE BET: DeVonta Smith Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115) DraftKings
