In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
Sunday NFL Blitz Preview, Part I: Each Friday, I crack open my very worn and beaten binder to share some personal hand notes and help you finalize your prep on the early slate (and make sure to check in again on Sunday morning for the back half of the schedule).
Ravens (5-2) at Browns (1-6): The time to replace Deshaun Watson under center in Cleveland was already long passed before his Week 7 Achilles injury. In steps fan favorite Jameis Winston, a notorious gunslinger to try and give the Browns a boost versus perhaps the best team in the league. My focus remains on whether the Browns can regain some of the defensive swagger that made them so dangerous last year, especially at home. If not, expect Lamar and the Ravens to make it +30 points for a fifth week straight.
Colts (4-2) at Texans (5-2): My first feeling is that of pity for the Colts’ pass defense this Sunday against C.J. Stroud, who is coming off back-to-back clunkers (278 yards total) following two straight ceiling games (676 yards total). In the trading world, we’d call this a double-bottom and massive buying opportunity. Then the obvious player to watch is struggling rookie QB Anthony Richardson, who has posted only one game this season completing more than half his passes. Yikes.
Packers (5-2) at Jaguars (2-5): The Jaguars finally return from their foggy fortnight in merry old England, as if they needed any more challenges hosting the five-win Packers. Trevor Lawrence keeps improving weekly so don’t expect the Jags to roll over on offense. However, even winning two of their last three hasn’t quashed my concerns for the JAX defensive unit, one of four teams allowing +6.0 yards/play to the opposition.
Cardinals (3-4) at Dolphins (2-4): The return of Tua Tagovailoa from an IR stint after a concussion takes this from being a meh matchup to one where the Dolphins could really put up some points with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle back to their high-flying ways. Can Kyler Murray and Co. push back against a Miami defense that’s allowing a league-low 137 yards per game?
Titans (1-5) at Lions (5-1): Stoppable force meets immovable object in the Motor City as we should all just be glad this one’s not on prime time. Unironically, turning to Mason Rudolph of their own volition says more about the state of the Titans’ offense than I could in a thousand words. And, oh yeah, TEN just traded its best (only?) playmaker, DeAndre Hopkins. On the flip side, Detroit’s making its case for best team in the NFL with legitimate MVP candidate Jared Goff under center. The spread is 11.5 points for a reason, and even that could be an easy clear, providing the Lions don’t get complacent.
Eagles (4-2) at Bengals (3-4): Both defenses are in the top 10 for fewest passing yards allowed per game, though both their averages were aided by playing the Giants and Browns recently. Joe Burrow is back in Cincy, where he’s thrown for +300 yards in his last two home games. Jalen Hurts got back A.J. Brown, who promptly put up 5-89-1 on the Giants. Surely DeVonta Smith won’t be held to -2 receiving yards like last week.
Falcons (4-3) at Buccaneers (4-3): Circled this one two weeks ago for prime real estate on the TV, but as they say: We plan and the injury bug laughs. Tampa Bay, the NFL’s fourth-highest scoring offense, lost Mike Evans after potentially rushing him back too soon before losing this year’s reception leader Chris Godwin for the season. And just like that, Baker Mayfield needs explosives from a WR room consisting of backups against a Falcon defense yet to allow a single QB to eclipse +240 yards through the air.
Jets (2-5) at Patriots (1-6): NYJ must be the most disappointing team in the NFL (shocker), especially the offense—assured to excel with any semblance of professional QB play. Well, through seven games the Jets have yet to top 24 points and even that was 36 days ago. Gather up your cliches … it’s a must-win game, all hands on-deck situation, a them-against-the-world scenario for Gang Green. And every one of those is true. I’ll be watching for growth from Drake Maye, who’s shown more ups than downs against a Jets defense not playing nearly up to expectations. First one to 17 probably wins.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- A Warm Reception
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Jerry …
Hit a little rough patch on props lately so I’m getting a little weird (but not too much, hopefully). One place I’ve sustained success is targeting volume-correlated passing props against Baltimore. Someone’s going to eventually ding me for repeating this so many times, but the Ravens are this year’s preeminent pass funnel. The front seven is arguably the best run-stopping unit in the game (68% success rate, 3.3 YPC, 1 +20-yard carry)—plus they score a ton of points, constantly pushing game scripts to the negative. Oh, and BAL is bottom-third across the board in pressure stats because they run so many two-high, 6-DB packages, landing them 30th or worse in completions and passing yards allowed.
The entire world is on either target hog David Njoku or shiny new toy Cedric Tillman. While I think elements of the offense will run through them (especially Njoku), it feels too telegraphed—hard to imagine John Harbaugh won’t be ready to pluck the lowest fruit. Digging through our utilization tools, it turns out things may not always be as they seem. Jerry Jeudy actually led all Browns, including Njoku, in route participation (100%), targets (4), target/route (33.3%), and a remarkable 54% of Cleveland’s air yards (image below).
The matchup is pretty clean—Jeudy’s 35% explosive-play rate versus Baltimore’s secondary, allowing 13% more 20-yard completions than the field in a game with an 8-point spread. Resident gurus Dwain and Freedman agree, there should be no lack of opportunities …
THE BET: Jerry Jeudy Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110, FanDuel)
FIND MORE NFL WEEK 8 PLAYER PROPS
Win Real Cash with Bleacher Nation Fantasy
Receive a no-sweat first entry up to $250!
Attention football fans! Want to win real cash playing a fantasy football game? Download the Bleacher Nation Fantasy app today and put your sports knowledge to the test. Dominate the competition and claim your share of real cash prizes.
Use code: SWEATFREE for a risk-free entry up to $250. Download Bleacher Nation Fantasy from the app store now and don't miss out on this incredible offer!
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Start the pigskin weekend with Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton on the Week 9 College Football Pregame Show, Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
❤️ We can all use a little Week 8 Love/Hate on a Friday.
🔮 Thor is pulling double duty, as he flew solo to deliver his College Football Best Bets for Week 9.
🚀 Is Jordan Love about to take off? Freedman’s props has the answer and more.
🏈 Who’s ready to score? Ulrich has some Anytime TD gems for you.
🤔 Where’s the money going? Popular Week 8 NFL Bets.
A Warm Reception🔥🏈—White-Knuckle Ride
Continuing with today’s theme of filling voids by anticipating puck movement rather than chase from behind, it’s off to sunny Florida. Injuries robbed the Buccaneers of roughly half their projected targets with the devastating one-two punch of losing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
Well, Baker Mayfield is averaging +43 dropbacks/game this month because the defense surrendered an incredible 104 points in three weeks—so the ball’s going somewhere. As fantasy gamers and obscure prop bettors debate Jalen McMillan versus Trey Palmer, give me old reliable. Sure, Rachaad White’s stock took a hit with the ascendance of Bucky Irving (and rightfully so), but the fourth-round rookie out of Oregon logged a full week of DNPs on the practice report (turf toe).
I charted the Tampa backfield’s routes and targets per game (image above) and it’s clear to me—even if Sean Tucker eats up some early-down base work, I do not see him earning targets in the pass game if the Bucs fall behind again. Welcome to Checkdown City, I hope …
THE BET: Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (+125; DraftKings)
