Geoff Ulrich presents the Sunday Night Football Best Bets, breaking down the action on this great NFC rivalry.
Despite underperforming to date, both sides in Week 8’s Sunday Night game remain close to the division leaders in the NFC East and NFC West. Dallas still has two games remaining with the Commanders (who may be without Jayden Daniels this week) and San Francisco could even take over first if they win and Seattle loses.
The 49ers are arguably in a little bit more of a dire situation having already booked four losses on the year, and the Rams winning on Thursday (whom they already lost to this season). They enter this week still without Christian McCaffrey (Achilles), who may be eligible to return in Week 10 after the 49ers Week 9 bye. That makes getting a win this week for the 49ers even more vital, as their star is far more likely to push for a quick return if they sit at 4-4 and .500 rather than 3-5.
It won't be easy, though. The 49ers enter this game without their best deep threat in Brandon Aiyuk (IR), who went down with a torn ACL/MCL last week and is out for the season. They’re also shorthanded on defense having already lost DT Javon Hargrave, and will remain without S Talanoa Hufanga and LB Dre Greenlaw this week.
The 49ers’ regression on defense this season has been underreported, and they enter this game just 13th in EPA per play on defense and 26th in EPA against the rush.
The Cowboys will be activating veteran Dalvin Cook off the practice squad this week in an effort to give their run game a boost. I’ll admit, I’d forgotten the Cowboys had even signed Cook, which probably tells you how relevant he is at this stage in his career. Still, Dallas has not run the ball well this season and ranks just 24th in success rate per rush. Cook is likely an improvement over Ezekiel Elliott at the very least, but Rico Dowdle should still be the early-down leader and does have a favorable matchup this week.
Either way, any improvement in rushing success will help Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb immensely in this spot against a 49ers defense that still has Nick Bosa and is 7th in EPA per dropback.
Dallas is coming off a bye, but will the rest week adjustments be enough to overtake a hurting, but elite 49ers squad?
Let’s break down the spread and total, before getting to player props and pick’em cards below.
49ers -4.5 (-110; bet365) vs. Cowboys +4.5 (-110; bet365) 47.0
Injury notes 49ers:
Out
Questionable
Injury Notes Cowboys:
Out
John Stephens Jr.
Questionable
The 49ers would have loved to get back Jauan Jennings for this game, but he’ll remain out for Week 8, leaving them shorthanded at receiver. Deebo Samuel looks on track to play and should be in for a ton of targets with Aiyuk sidelined the rest of the season.
Also, expect to see a lot of Jordan Mason in this game as they try to establish their power run game against a poor Cowboys rush defense.
The Cowboys will be without Micah Parsons again, who was ruled out on Friday.
Spread and Total
I took the Cowboys at +6.0 when this line opened on Sunday night and shared it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker. The number quickly got bet down at +4.5, where it’s stayed most of the week. I was hoping that Parsons would make it back, but our Game Model has the Cowboys showing some value even at this reduced number (+3.6 vs. +4.5 Cowboys).
The 49ers will be able to move the ball well with Mason and Samuel healthy, but their defense is still a problem. I expect Dallas to use CeeDee Lamb and Jake Furguson to hurt the 49ers in the middle while also potentially getting their run game going a bit with the insertion of Cook.
As much as I like Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers' insane red-zone efficiency from last season, where they led the league at 68%, has dried up this year as they’re just 27th in the league and operating at a poor 45% clip.
Dallas should be able to get enough stops to keep this close and perhaps even pull off an upset if Prescott can convert on a late drive.
Our Model is showing a tiny bit of edge on the Under (46.6 vs. 47.0 total), but the defensive issues for the 49ers, and Parsons being out for the Cowboys, make this a pass for me.
I break down the best props and more for 49ers vs. Cowboys below.
49ers vs. Cowboys Best Bets: Jake Ferguson SGP: Over 3.5 receptions/Over 38.5 rec yards (+120; bet365)
The 49ers haven’t defended the middle of the field well this season and will remain without safety Talanoa Hufanga this week. They ceded 8 catches (on just 27 pass attempts) to the Chiefs TE group last week, and have allowed at least one TE to go for 50+ yards against over their last three starts.
Honestly, I think you could play Jake Ferguson a ton of different ways this week, but a same-game parlay (SGP) with the over on his 3.5 receptions and 38.5 receiving yards remains at a solid +120 price as of writing.
We have Ferguson projected at 4.7 rec and 48 yards, so are pretty bullish on him in this spot overall. He’s been the clear No. 2 target for Dak Prescott this season and coming off a slow game against the Lions—where everyone on the Cowboys' offense underperformed—we have a clear buy-low spot with his regular lines under 4.0 receptions and 40 yards.
Honestly, just given how shorthanded the 49ers are on defense, I might look to play Ferguson through 6 (+235; bet365) or 7 (+350; bet365) receptions in the alternate lines and potentially add in an anytime TD bet as well.
Ferguson is as big as +280 on FanDuel to score this week, and with a solid matchup, it’s not hard to imagine him breaking out of his six-game scoreless drought.
Brock Purdy Under 31.5 pass attempts (-120; FanDuel)
As mentioned above, the Cowboys project as a clear run funnel defense, ranking dead last in EPA per rush. It’s hard to see the 49ers wanting to drop Brock Purdy back more than they have to in this spot, given both the matchup and the fact they’re now down both Aiyuk and Jennings.
With Deebo Samuel and Jordan Mason healthy, you should see plenty of rush attempts dialed up for both men, especially in the red zone where Purdy has had issues converting this year. This bet is also just following along with the natural edges in our projections, which have Purdy set at 30.0 attempts.
I generally look for at least a point of edge when playing overs or unders on volume props, especially on QBs, and Purdy is set 1.5 attempts above his projection this week. Even without McCaffrey this season, Purdy has gone over this number only twice in seven games and managed only 31 attempts last week, despite being a pass-friendly script most of the game vs. the Chiefs.
Underdog 3-Way (5.46x Multiplier)
- Jake Ferguson HIGHER 4.0 receptions
- Brock Purdy LOWER 31.5 pass attempts
- Jordan Mason HIGHER 0.5 TDs
Given the line on Purdy to go for less than 31.5 attempts has dropped to -120 or lower at many sportsbooks, the LOWER on 31.5 on Underdog now sets up as a solid target. Correlating that with a rushing TD from Mason also makes sense.
While we have to take a smaller multiplier by adding the HIGHER on 0.5 TDs for Mason, his anytime TD price is as low as -175 on some books, making it a decent value proposition on its own. A Mason score also will make Purdy less likely to drop back a ton, given they’re likely to be close or ahead if Mason is effective on the ground. Either way, we don't have to pay any penalty for putting the two together, making it a nice pairing for starting lineups.
Finally, if the 49ers are rushing with success with Mason, that should also mean more targets for Ferguson. We could certainly look to use Ferguson’s alt-lines or yardage, but we don’t have to take any multiplier discount by going HIGHER on his 4.0 receptions line, and at least have the push to fall back on should he get stuck on 4.0 receptions.
