Week 8 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Bears @ Chargers
The Bears will head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers for the Week 8 Sunday Night Football matchup. While this game may not be super high on your Week 8 bingo card, it might be more intriguing than expected.
Both of these teams have just two wins on the season, and while Los Angeles enters this contest as a significant favorite, Chicago is in far better form. They’ve won two of their past three games outright, and the lone exception was the game where Justin Fields got hurt. Maybe – just maybe – the Bears aren't that bad?
Let’s dive into all the betting angles for Bears-Chargers.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Chargers -8.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 46.5
- Moneylines: Bears +340 / Chargers -450
The big news heading into this matchup is the continued absence of Fields. Tyson Bagent will make his second career start after having engineered an upset victory at home over the Raiders in Week 7.
Bagent was a Division II standout, which was enough to get him a deal with the Bears as an undrafted free agent. He excelled during the preseason, beating out veteran QBs Nathan Peterman and P.J. Walker for the backup job.
Bagent will always have doubters, as such is the life for an undrafted free agent, but he held his own in his first career NFL start. He completed 72.4% of his passes for 162 yards and a TD, and more importantly, he didn't turn the ball over. Combined with a strong rushing attack and a solid performance from the defense, it was a good enough performance to lead his team to victory.
The big question is: can Bagent do it again?
Oct 22, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) drops back to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
The rookie QB will be on the road this week, but it’s not a huge step up in terms of competition. In fact, the Chargers have been worse this season in defensive EPA per play than the Raiders.
However, the big difference is that Los Angeles has been strong against the run.
They currently rank seventh in EPA per rush defensively, while the Raiders rank just 31st in that category. The Bears' run game could provide far less support for Bagent in this game after they racked up 173 yards on the ground last week. In other words, the pressure may be more on Bagent to move the ball through the air for Chicago's offense to find success.
On the other side, the Chargers are having a typical Chargers season. They entered the year with big expectations, but they’ve failed to live up to them so far. Justin Herbert got off to a phenomenal start, but an injury to Mike Williams has severely hampered his production.
After losing Williams in Week 3, Los Angeles's offense has dipped to 17th in EPA per play over the past four weeks. Herbert's adjusted yards per attempt has also decreased from 8.75 in his first three games to 6.08 over the last three weeks. With rookie WR Quentin Johnston having made a minimal impact thus far, this offense is suffering from the same exact issues that plagued it last year.
The Bears' defense was much maligned early in the season, but they’ve bounced back over the past four weeks. Chicago's defense has ranked an average but respectable 17th in defensive EPA per play over that time frame, and they’ve also been fourth against the run the last four games.
Best Bet: Bears +9.0 (-110; WynnBET)
The Bears are priced at +8.5 across most of the industry, but you can get them at +9.0 at WynnBET. There’s ultimately not a huge difference between those numbers since nine is a pretty uncommon final margin in NFL games, so I’m comfortable playing Chicago at either number.
The sharps backed Bagent and the Bears last week, and they’re going right back to the well on Sunday Night Football. Chicago has received just 40% of the bets but 64% of the money per the Action Network.
In general, the Chargers have been one of the more overvalued teams by the public in recent years. Many see Herbert and the offense as capable of putting up points but tend to overlook the poor defense and terrible coaching staff.
Los Angeles is currently graded as a below-average team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, and while Chicago is undoubtedly worse, the gap is not nearly as large as the current spread suggests. With the Chargers having minimal home-field advantage, they project this number closer to a TD.
Herbert does have a decent track record as a large favorite (4-2 ATS when laying at least a TD), but he’s just 16-18-1 as a favorite overall. That said, Los Angeles has played in a lot of close contests. They’ve played 24 games since the start of the 2022 season, and 18 of them have been decided by seven points or fewer.
Ultimately, I think that the Chargers should be able to win this contest, but I don’t expect them to dominate. This is the type of game that should be competitive down the stretch, and with a nine-point cushion, Bagent also has the potential for a backdoor cover.
Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Roschon Johnson Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-115; DraftKings)
- Bet To: Over 33.5 (-115)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 39.9
Johnson has missed the last two games after suffering a concussion against the Commanders in Week 5, but he’s expected to return for this game. He had two straight full practices on Thursday and Friday and has no injury designation heading into this Sunday night matchup.
Where he’ll fit in the pecking order is the bigger question.
D’Onta Foreman has operated as Chicago's lead RB in the past two games, and he logged an impressive 4.97 yards per attempt against the Vikings and Raiders. It’s very possible that Foreman could retain his starting role against the Chargers in primetime.
Oct 1, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson (23) runs with the ball against the Denver Broncos at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
However, Johnson should still complement Foreman. The Bears spent a fourth-round pick on him in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the rookie was starting to take on more responsibilities before getting concussed. Johnson should supplant Darrynton Evans, who's been the No. 2 behind Foreman the last two weeks.
We currently have Johnson projected for 9.3 rushing attempts and 39.9 rushing yards, giving us plenty of cushion over the current number. As long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout, I like Johnson’s chances of cashing.
Darnell Mooney Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)
- Bet To: Under 26.5 (-115)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 18.5
Taking the under on low numbers is always scary. Mooney could theoretically hit the over on just one reception, so there's a bit of variance with this selection. Even so, I think that this number is still too high.
Mooney has largely been an afterthought in the offense this season, posting a 78% route participation and an 11% target share. That puts him behind D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and potentially the RBs as well on Sunday night for a Bears offense that doesn’t throw a ton to begin with.
Although Mooney did manage four grabs for 32 yards last week, he still saw just five targets. That was an uncommon performance considering that his career catch rate is just 60.7%. Mooney already has three games in 2023 without a single reception, and even against the Chargers’ poor pass defense, I don't think his receiving yardage total will eclipse the low-to-mid 20s.
You can tail the under for Mooney on FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more!
Keenan Allen Over 7.5 Receptions (+105; BetMGM)
- Bet To: Over 7.5 (+100)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 7.3
I’m going slightly against our projections here, but I’m willing to do that occasionally at better than even money. With the way that Allen’s receptions prop is priced, I think that the over is clearly the correct side for this wager.
Allen has seen a dominant 31% target share this season, and he’s logged at least nine targets in every game except for one. Though he struggled to get going last week against a stout Kansas City defense and finished with only four receptions for 55 yards, Chicago's secondary isn't nearly as good.
Oct 16, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) carries the ball against Dallas Cowboys cornerback Stephon Gilmore (21) in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Bears do have an elite cornerback in Jaylon Johnson, who currently leads the position in Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade, but he’s played in the slot on just 4% of his snaps in 2023. Allen plays 66% of his snaps in the slot, so he should avoid Johnson for the majority of this game.
The rest of Chicago's secondary is very exploitable, and with Williams out of the picture, Allen should continue to be a target monster and the Chargers' clear No. 1 WR.
You can tail Allen's over on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Justin Herbert Anytime TD (+350, DraftKings)
I’m not a TD prop guy. I know, I know…I’m real fun at parties. While my buddies are all sweating out degenerate plays like a Noah Gray anytime TD during the Super Bowl, I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.
Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is more willing to live a little. He’s highlighted Herbert as a worthy anytime TD play in this game:
“I've mentioned Herbert as a rushing prop target a few times over the last couple of weeks and will go back to him as a potential anytime TD target for Sunday Night Football in Week 8.
The Chargers' QB is scrambling at a higher rate in 2023 (7%) than he has in the past and has even had designed runs called in all but one game this year.
It’s also worth noting that for this prop, Herbert is a big-bodied QB who makes for an ideal goal-line rushing (tush push) option when the Chargers are inside the five-yard line.
While he didn’t score a single rushing TD last year, Herbert's already found the end zone three times as a runner in 2023, which perhaps tells you the shift in philosophy around his usage by new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
As big favorites with a 27.5 implied team total, the TD props for the Chargers' skill-position players have good value at these kinds of odds.”
You can tail the Herbert anytime TD bet on DraftKings, where you can sign up to get $200 in bonus bets by placing an initial bet of $5 or more. Click below to get started!
Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can the Bears keep this game competitive, or will the Chargers assert their dominance? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.
For this week’s SGP, I’m starting with the Bears +8.5. As mentioned above, I think the spread is too high, and Chicago should be able to keep this within a TD unless Bagent fully turns back into a pumpkin before Halloween.
The next most logical pairing with the Bears +8.5 is the under. I don’t see Bagent keeping up with Herbert if this game turns into a shootout, so under 46.5 points has some correlation. I’m also going to add in the Mooney and Johnson props listed above since they stand out as such good values compared to our Week 8 projections.
Finally, I’m going to add in at least one TD pass for Bagent. We’re going to need some points from the Bears if they’re going to cover, and the Chargers’ defense is far more exploitable through the air than on the ground. Bagent had his first career TD pass against the Raiders last week, and I think he'll add to that total in primetime.
Add up all these legs, and our SGP looks something like this:
If you’re feeling extra spicy, you could always go with two TD passes for Bagent. That would increase the potential payout to +2000, but it doesn’t correlate quite as well with the under. Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
You can tail this SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
