Week 8 Thursday Night Betting Preview: Vikings vs. Rams
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
Thursday Night Preview, Vikings (5-1) at Rams (2-4): Is anything more simultaneously satisfying and absolutely terrifying than thinking an NFL betting line is mispriced? No matter how I slice it, I get the same result—from stat-less boomer-style analysis to film-watching or burying my big nose in the spreadsheets … Minnesota’s clearly the superior team.
Frankly, I’m surprised they’re only 3-point favorites and available at (-160) for the outright win.
Brian Flores has this Vikings defense playing out of its mind, easily in consideration as a top-3 unit, where they sit in a laundry list of critical metrics—defensive EPA/play (+0.17), scoring drive success rate (25.0%), defensive rush success (68.4%), yards/carry (4.0), explosive rush rate (4.2%), opposition passer rating (78.0), YAC/reception (4.7), sack rate (9.7%), and snaps/splash play (2.5). Forgive me for droning on with stats there, but it’s to make a specific point in highlighting the diversity of the Vikings’ success. They’re efficient, stopping the run dead in its tracks—yet also doing a great job of forcing QBs off-platform, where they tackle well in the secondary.
The aforementioned line is at least somewhat predicated on the Rams returning Cooper Kupp without an injury designation after practicing in full all week. Kupp’s incredible, I get it. I even think Kupp’s style of securing quick reads underneath matches up well against such an aggressive scheme—but I’m sorry, the Rams' explosiveness ends there. That said, it’s the other side of the ball scaring me most. Where’s this confidence in Los Angeles’ D coming from? Can’t say I’m sure, given some of the atrocious underpinning stuff on the defensive side. LAR ranks 28th or worse in defensive EPA/play (-0.07), yards/reception (12.4), tackle rate (48.8%), and snaps/splash play (3.9). The combined disparity in impact plays particularly separates these two squads for me.
Sometimes you just disagree with the market at large and it becomes a matter of execution.
How Does Our Model Feel About TNF?
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Easy As SGP—(+675) TNF Parlay
- World Series 2024
Easy As SGP🏈🎰—TNF Parlay🔥
Using the foundational theories of the case laid out above to draw my game narrative, we want to be aggressive without getting greedy. Remember, pigs eat and hogs get slaughtered. I obviously like Minnesota so we can start there but let's stick to the Vikings Moneyline (-148) to avoid a backdoor heartbreaker. I’m no fan of the Rams D, which I don’t personally think has an answer for Aaron Jones, let alone Justin Jefferson. MIN’s going to score tonight, so I’m interested in a team total for sure. Even though I have the Vikes projecting closer to 28, let’s stay in the lines and tack on the baseline MIN TT Over 23.5 (+110). For what it’s worth, LAR surrendered +24 points every game until last week against a fairly terrible Raider offense.
Since Minnesota’s going to be playing from ahead with a non-zero chance to outright abandon the run early, I want exposure to volume stuff on the Rams’ side also. Add Matthew Stafford Over 33.5 Attempts (+192) with a heavy focus on a narrow target tree underneath, namely Cooper Kupp Over 6.5 Receptions (+320). Flores’ disguised blitz packages force everyone off schedule, which is partly why they’ve allowed so many catches to opposing RBs, and Kyren Williams literally never left the field so place the bow on this same gamer with Kyren Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (+675). Good luck!
THE (+675) SGP: MIN ML + MIN TT O23.5 + Matthew Stafford Over 33.5 Attempts + Cooper Kupp Over 6.5 Receptions + Kyren Williams Over 2.5 Receptions
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Claudia, Freedman, and Ulrich break down Vikings-Rams on TNF and more Week 8 Best Bets.
🧐 The big reveal. Thor maps out his Week 9 CFB Best Bets and Props.
🐷 TNF to MNF … Ulrich and LaMarca run down Pigskin Pick’em for the Week 8 action.
🔮 The Broncos a mile-high favorite? Freedman’s Week 8 NFL Bets tell the story.
🏀 Defense! Defense! How are NBA Overs doing early on?
World Series 2024🔮—28, A Perfect Number
Bonus points for anyone who gets the title. Bad nerdy dad jokes aside, I’m a little put off by the board for this year’s World Series. For transparency’s sake, betting on the playoffs was tough enough as is—I have no idea how to treat a week off under these circumstances. Assuming pitchers are rested sounds reasonable but at the same time, they’re all off-schedule to a man. Plus, we know hitters proudly claim to be creatures of habit—who have now all gone from nonstop intensity for weeks to their longest break without full-speed competition in months. Hard to imagine the same hopeless baseball romantic who wrote yesterday’s piece could be feeling so vanilla heading into the Fall Classic.
Team offenses present as close a call as you’ll find—the Yankees and Dodgers occupy two of the top three spots in PA, HR, R, RBI, BB%, BB/K, ISO, OBP, Barrel%, wOBA, and wRC+. So we’re not just talking about the best power-hitting teams, but the most optimal plate approaches as well. And both lineups are anchored by multiple potential Hall of Famers on both sides of the plate. Not to get mushy again after yesterday, but this is what it’s all about.
Forget the season-long pitching stats, it comes down to matchup timing, and therein lies the rub.
Game 1, Friday: Gerrit Cole vs. Jack Flaherty
Game 2, Saturday: Carlos Rodón vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Game 3, Monday: Walker Buehler vs. Clarke Schmidt
Game 4, Tuesday: Ben Casparius vs. Luis Gil
Game 5, Wednesday: TBD
Games 1 and 2 are already priced at the standard noncommittal (+110/-125) toward the home team. So calling it a split either way where both games get decided late falls in line with market expectations. The thing is, after that where do the Dodgers’ innings come from? I’m not knocking Dave Roberts, he’s done a masterful job in bullpen deployment thus far. However, he hasn’t been afforded the intra-series days off in this last go-around.
With the normal starters going 5 innings, if they’re lucky against a very patient Yankee lineup, I believe the Dodgers’ first back-to-back-to-back of the postseason exposes the lack of arm depth.
Call me a homer but the Yanks’ pitching depth takes the crown
THE BET: Yankees Win The World Series (+105) FD
MLB PROPS FOR THE WORLD SERIES
How The Sharps See TNF Week 8
Source: Sharp Hunter
Lots of questions heading into Week 8 of the NFL—and we have some right away with the Rams and the Vikings on Thursday Night Football.
Thankfully, we have the sharps at Sharp Hunter to help us wade through the issues.
We track the sharp bets every week and this week, we’re showing a Three-Bag Sharp Score on the Vikings -3 Thursday Night.
The Vikings are certainly one of the big questions of Week 8. We know they’re good. But after losing a close game to the Lions, how much do they have on a short week to now go on the road and face a Rams team expecting to get reinforcements?
Rams All-Pro WR Cooper Kupp is expected to play on Thursday and should boost the Rams passing offense. DVOA says the Vikings are No. 1 in the NFL on defense, but they just got torched by Jared Goff—he had a 140 QB rating in the Lions win!
How will that first loss affect the Vikings? Undefeated teams who lose, THEN have to play on a short week on Thursday Night Football the next week—5-11 ATS since 1990, per Action Network.
Rams coach Sean McVay is a solid 5-2 ATS on short weeks.
The Vikings are the road favorite here—and road faves are 16-2 (!!!) over the last three weeks.
Our sharps are all over the Vikings on Thursday and they might just be the better team.
But with Kupp back and the Vikings coming off an emotional, divisional loss just a few days ago—I’ll take the Rams plus the points in prime time Thursday.
