Matt LaMarca presents the Monday Night Football best bets for the Week 8 contest featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants.
Monday Night Football in Week 8 features a matchup between two of the most storied franchises in NFL history. The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the New York Giants in Pittsburgh, with the Steelers listed as moderate favorites.
While these squads have both had plenty of success historically, they’re trending in opposite directions. The Steelers have won five of their first seven games this season, putting them in a good spot to make the playoffs this season. They’re riding the typical Steelers’ formula, boasting a strong defense and a good enough offense with one of the best coaches in football.
The Giants are at the start of what is potentially a long rebuild. This figures to be the last year of the Daniel Jones era, and there’s no guarantee he will even finish this year as the team’s starter. The team is currently sitting at just 2-5, putting it on pace to draft a new franchise QB near the top of next year’s draft.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Giants-Steelers.
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.0)—36.5 total
As always, it’s tough to trust the Steelers as favorites. For his career, Mike Tomlin’s team has been significantly better at covering the spread as underdogs than when laying points. Tomlin is 59-31-3 ATS as an underdog during the regular season, but just 89-98-2 ATS as a favorite. As a favorite of more than a field goal, his record drops to just 57-73-1 (-12.9% ROI). Tomlin has ultimately been the second-least-profitable coach in that split since 2005, trailing only Mike Shanahan (17-34-1; -34.1% ROI).
Still, how in the world can you back the Giants in this spot? Their offensive line is in shambles after losing Andrew Thomas to a season-ending injury. They were one of the worst offensive lines in football without Thomas last season, and they surrendered 8 sacks to the Eagles last week. Things were so bad that the Giants literally had to bench Jones in fear of him getting hurt and triggering his injury guarantee for next season.
Philly undoubtedly has a great pass rush, but the Steelers are even better. They have one of the premier edge rushers in football in T.J. Watt, and they own the No. 1 pass-rush grade per PFF.
The Steelers’ offense also looked much improved in Russell Wilson’s first start of the year. They put up 37 points and a season-high 409 total yards despite taking on a tough Jets defense. Wilson averaged 10.48 adjusted yards per attempt, while Najee Harris turned 21 carries into 102 yards and a touchdown.
The only ways I’m considering this game are with the Steelers and the under. The under appears to be the preferred side for the sharps, driving this total down from 37.5 at opening to 36.5 currently. There are even some 36s out there in the marketplace.
That said, I’m going to lay the wood with Pittsburgh. Their pass rush should make life hell for Jones (and possibly Drew Lock), and Jones is certainly capable of turning the ball over. Something like a pick-six or scoop-and-score is in play, which makes me a bit more comfortable with the Steelers than the under.
The Pick: Steelers -6.0 (-108; DraftKings)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Alex Highsmith to record a sack (-114; FanDuel)
Watt is unsurprisingly a massive favorite to pick up a sack in this matchup, but there could be plenty of opportunities to go around. Highsmith has just one sack this season, but he had 21.5 over the past two years. He was PFF’s No. 10 edge rusher last season, so this seems like a great spot for some positive sack regression.
Najee Harris Over 15.5 carries (-114; FanDuel)
Harris is going to have to split work with Jaylen Warren on Monday, but I still like his chances of getting to 16 attempts. He’s running better than he ever has, and this prop correlates nicely with a comfortable Steelers win. If they’re able to build a lead, there should be enough carries to go around.
Wan’Dale Robinson Over 32.5 receiving yards (-120; MGM)
Both Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman have Robinson projected for more than 40 yards in this matchup, and it’s another prop that jives with my view of the game. Jones is going to have to get the ball out of his hands quickly, which fits Robinson’s skill set perfectly. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 4.6 yards, and he had a 31% target share last week vs. the Eagles.
