The Jets and Chargers come into this game off wins – although the wins were (visually) extremely different. The Jets needed a late-game missed FG and some heroic clock management to get by the Giants while the Chargers stomped the Bears by multiple scores. 

The style of those two wins and the fact we have Zach Wilson (who the public hates) vs. Justin Herbert (who the public loves) has helped this line stay in favor of the Chargers.

From a bigger-picture perspective, the Jets have been the better team of late. They’re 4-2 ATS over their last six games and are up to sixth in Defensive DVOA. Their offense has been pitiful (29th in Offensive DVOA), but they have studs at RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson capable of manufacturing explosive plays out of nothing and able to overcome shortcomings at QB and play-caller.

The Chargers have the eighth-best offense in DVOA but sport just a +6.0 point differential. This will be the second week in a row for them facing a weaker passing offense, which is potentially great news as their secondary is last in yards per pass attempt against (7.8). 

We’ll go over a full breakdown of any injury news below and, for betting, look to take a side, go over the best props available, provide an alternative line (ladder bet) target, and a same-game parlay.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets

  • Spread: Jets +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
  • Total: 39.5 (-110)
  • Moneylines: Chargers -181 / Jets +150

The Jets did get some good news on the injury front this week. Two offensive linemen in Laken Tomlinson and right guard Joe Tippmann are expected to return for this game. Tippmann is much needed as he’ll likely play center, given the injury issues the Jets are facing at that position. 

The Chargers will likely have TE Gerald Everett back for this game after practicing in full Friday, but they did rule out WR Joshua Palmer. Palmer’s absence isn’t insignificant, as the Chargers were already down a top WR in Mike Williams, and Palmer had been an every-snap player the last few weeks.

Palmer

Oct 12, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer (5) takes the field against the Kansas City Chiefs prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a challenging situation if you like the Chargers, as they will be facing one of the best (if not the outright best) secondaries in the league. The Jets have held opponents to 4.8 yards per attempt over their last three games and have allowed just 197 yards passing per game, as well. 

Los Angeles will need one of Quentin Johnston, Simi Fehoko, or Derius Davis to step up in Palmer’s absence. Johnston is the obvious candidate, and the rookie did post a career-high 17% target share last week, going for five catches (six targets) and 50 yards. That was against the Bears, however, and outside of that game – half of which the Chargers played with massive lead – Johnston has been a non-factor. 

For the Jets, offensively, they have managed to turn Zach Wilson into a quintessential game manager in 2023, and it’s working. Wilson is only averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, but he is setting career highs in completion rate (58%) and INT rate (2.3%).

Part of the reason Wilson is semi-working right now is that the Jets are feeding Garrett Wilson the ball with impunity (much like the Packers offense used to do with Davante Adams under Nathanial Hackett). Wilson is also #good. 

Wilson has a 33% target share on the season and has seen a massive 48% share of the air yards for New York as well. His efficiency hasn’t been great (his catchable target rate is just 67%), but the Chargers secondary has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs.

Shutting down Wilson will be paramount to the Chargers having success this week, as providing this Jets defense with a lead at any point in the game will be a tough hill to overcome. 

Best Bet: Jets +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)

This number opened at 1.5 and promptly rose to 3.5, signifying that the market thinks the Chargers have a significant edge. That may or may not be true, but now that we are past the key number of 3.0, it’s tough not to like the Jets, who look like they are once again being potentially undervalued. 

Despite their defense being a top-five unit over the past month, they have been continually disrespected on the spread and have covered or pushed in four straight games (Chiefs +10, Eagles +7.0, Broncos +2.0, Giants -3.0). Three of those covers have also been outright wins. The Chargers being without Palmer is a significant downgrade to their offense, as they will essentially be relying on players four through six on their depth chart to make an impact. 

Throw in the Chargers' defensive issues, and you have a tough spot for a team traveling west to east in primetime. I like the Jets to keep this game close and likely pick up another cover in Week 9. 

You can tail Jets +3.5 at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below.

Player Props

Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 receptions (+116, FanDuel)

Ekeler will be a pivotal part of the Chargers offense this week with Palmer out. While he’s not a traditional wideout, he can play the form of a slot receiver and replicate a lot of the short-yardage routes Allen and Palmer were often running. That will allow Keenan Allen to handle more downfield work.

Ekeler

Oct 29, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) scores on a 39-yard touchdown run against the Chicago Bears in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets' one flaw on defense may be that they don’t mind allowing dump-offs to opposing RBs (sixth-most receptions allowed to the position), and Ekeler is arguably the best receiving RB in football.

We have this projected close, but with the situation (Palmer out, Jets funnel to the middle defense), I think an over is warranted at the current odds.

You can tail Ekeler on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more.

Ladder Bet

Breece Hall, RB - Jets (DraftKings)

  • 25+ receiving yards (+150)
  • 40+ receiving yards (+380)
  • 50+ receiving yards (+600)

Hall has been seeing a ton of opportunities since the Jets took off his snap count back in Week 4 against Denver. He’s played on over 65% of the snaps in the last two games, and part of that rise in usage has coincided with him seeing more work as a receiver. Hall’s target share has risen in four straight games (24% last week), and he’s caught three receptions in four straight games as well (season-high nine targets last week). 

Given the matchup against the Chargers, whose rush defense is much improved, it makes sense for Hall to continue seeing work in the passing game. They’re 10th in yards per rush attempt against but have also allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs.

As a result, Hall makes for a great ladder candidate in a game that should be close and could feature the Jets playing from behind late.

You can tail the ladder at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Same-Game Parlay

  • Jets ML
  • Wilson Over 1.5 passing TDs
  • Hall 25+ receiving yards
  • Ekeler 4+ receptions 

I like to keep my same game parlays short and sweet. I like the Jets in this situation and think this is another winnable game for them. If that scenario does take place (a Jets win), I think it’s possible we finally see a little momentum come from their passing game, which is up against a Chargers defense that has allowed three or more passing TDs three times already this season. 

A big day for Wilson (two or more passing TDs) correlates well with a Jets win, as does a big day for Ekeler (4+ receptions) as a receiver – who would be running a lot of late-game routes in that scenario. 

Throwing in a portion of our favorite ladder play (Breece Hall 25+ receiving yards) also gives this Jets passing-based parlay a solid boost. 

SGP

Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!

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