Here are five of my favorite Week 9 NFL player props currently available. For all my Week 9 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.
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For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.
Odds and projections are as of Thu. 10/31 at 9:30 pm ET.
NFL Player Props For Week 9
Derrick Henry Anytime TD
- Odds: -213 (Caesars)
- My Projection: 0.91 TDs | -344.4 to Score
Part of me dislikes highlighting props or bets that have heavy juice. But just because something is priced beyond the typical odds doesn't mean that you're a donkey if you bet it or that you need to invest more than your typical unit size.
What makes something expensive or overpriced has less to do with the odds and more to do with how the odds compare to the actual probability of something happening.
If I were evaluating this prop primarily based on the odds, I might think it a poor opportunity. But if I know that -213 carries a 68.1% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and if I project Henry to have a 77.5% chance of scoring a TD, then I can properly consider the worthiness of the investment.
And in my opinion, the delta between the 68.1% probability implied by the market and the 77.5% chance that I've projected is worth attempting to exploit.
Does that mean that I bet 2.13 units on this prop to win one unit? No. I'm not the type of investor to wager over 2% of my prop-betting bankroll on one position. So instead I bet a more reasonable 1.065 units to win 0.5 units.
Sure, the raw payout isn't as large, but that's the tradeoff I make for 1) having exposure to a prop with a high probability of cashing and 2) practicing sound bankroll management by not overextending myself with the bet.
Anyway, let's get to the specific bet … it's Henry. He has a league-high 12 carries inside the five-yard line, which he has converted into six goal-line TDs. He leads the NFL with 1,012 yards and 11 TDs from scrimmage.
In all eight of his games this year he has scored. And as home favorites of more than a TD, the Ravens could be in a position to feature Henry heavily throughout the contest, giving him an amplified chance of reaching the end zone.
For as strong as the Broncos defense has been this year, it's still only No. 15 in rush SR (37.4%, per RBs Don't Matter). Henry probably won't have a highly efficient performance, but he should still be productive.
Kyren Williams Anytime TD
- Odds: -175 (Caesars)
- My Projection: 0.87 TDs | -289.1 to Score
Williams is one of the players I highlight in my Week 9 Freedman's Favorites (RB Edition), so I won't go into too much depth here, but the quick thesis for investing in him is this: He's basically a smaller version of Henry.
He's No. 2 in the league with 11 goal-line carries (behind only Henry), and he has scored a TD in every game (10 TDs on the year).
And like Henry, Williams is mispriced in the market (in multiple ways).
First, he's too cheap at Caesars (relative to the other sportsbooks, per our Fantasy Life Prop Finder, which is a great tool for quickly finding the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet).
- Caesars: -175
- BetMGM: -210
- FanDuel: -230
- DraftKings: -295
Second, he's too cheap in general. I have him projected with a 74.3% chance to score, and his implied probability at -175 is 63.6%.
So Williams has market value, and then I like his matchup against the Seahawks, who are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.3%).
Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 INTs
- Odds: -108 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: 0.73 INTs | -142.7 to Throw INT
Cousins hasn't been reckless with the football this year, but he has a 2.6% INT rate, which is the highest mark he has had since his first full season as a starter in 2015.
While that mark is likely to improve as the season progresses, the fact is that his lack of mobility (because of last year's Achilles injury) might make him more prone to pressure, which in turn could result in forced and inaccurate throws and thus INTs.
But regardless of the cause, Cousins has seven INTs in eight games.
I acknowledge that the Cowboys under DC Mike Zimmer have not had the ball-hawking defense this year that they had in previous seasons under former DC Dan Quinn.
- 2024: 0.57 INTs per game | No. 20
- 2023: 1.0 INT per game | No. 8
- 2022: 0.94 INTs per game | No. 7
- 2021: 1.53 INTs per game | No. 1
And this week they might be without starting CBs Trevon Diggs (calf) and DaRon Bland (foot), neither of whom practiced on Wednesday or Thursday.
But this game has a relatively close -3 spread, which means that Cousins will likely attempt 30-plus passes. I have him projected for 33.6. His official Fantasy Life projection is 33.0. And his pass attempt prop is 33.5.
With that kind of volume, he still has a good chance of throwing a pick.
Cedric Tillman Over 43.5 Yards Receiving
- Odds: -114 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: 49.9
Tillman has been frequently talked about on the site this week. Dwain McFarland highlighted him in the Week 9 Utilization Report. Kendall Valenzuela touted him in her Week 9 waiver wire breakdown. And I featured him in my Week 9 Freedman's Favorites (WR Edition).
Tillman has four big factors in his favor.
First, he has seen a recent increase in playing time and usage thanks to the departure of WR Amari Cooper (traded). In his absence, Tillman over the past two weeks has an 87% route rate, 23% target rate, and 24% target share (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). With that usage, he has 7-99-2 and 8-81-0 receiving performances on nine and 12 targets since Week 7.
Second, starting QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles, IR) is out, and in his absence backup QB Jameis Winston last week exhibited competence and the willingness to attack defenses downfield, whereas Tillman has an advantage because of his ball skills and size (6-3, 215 lbs.).
Third, the Browns are slight +1.5-point underdogs, so they're unlikely to have an aggressively run-heavy game script. That means Tillman has a chance once again of seeing 9-12 targets in this game.
And fourth, the Chargers are without No. 1 CB Asante Samuel (shoulder, IR). Even though the Chargers are No. 3 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.083) and SR (40.4%), the matchup probably isn't as bad as it looks.
Ray Davis Over 5.5 Carries
- Odds: +115 (BetMGM)
- My Projection: 6.0
Let's set aside Week 6, when Davis had 20 carries. No. 1 RB James Cook was out that game with an injury, so it's not representative.
Let's set aside Week 1, which was Davis' first NFL game.
And let's set aside Week 5, which was decided by just three points.
That leaves us with five Bills games (Weeks 2-4, 7-8), all of which had a final margin of more than a field goal (four wins, one loss). Given that the Bills are -6 home favorites, I believe these five games are representative of what we're likely to see this weekend.
And in these five games, Davis has had 9, 7, 7, 5, and 6 carries.
I like his chance to go over 5.5 rush attempts, and I love this bet at plus money.
