What is an Octopus in NFL Betting?

One of the best parts about the Super Bowl is all of the wonderful betting opportunities. You have your standard wagers—the spread, the moneylines, the total—as well as the traditional props (touchdown scorers, yardage over/unders, etc). However, there are other markets that are typically only available for the Super Bowl.

The “octopus” has emerged as one of the most popular non-traditional bets.

Of course, if you’re not a hardcore NFL bettor, there’s a very good chance you’ve never heard the term “octopus” in relation to sports betting. The first time I saw it, I wondered if it had to do with an octopus being thrown on the field the same way they do in Red Wings games.

Turns out, the octopus bet has nothing to do with the animal itself. Let’s dive into everything you need to know about “octopuses”—what they are, where they came from, and whether or not you should bet them.

What is an Octopus in NFL Betting?

An NFL octopus is not nearly as intimidating as it sounds. It occurs when the same player scores a touchdown and two-point conversion on the same drive, foregoing a field goal and extra point. That player is responsible for all eight points—hence, octopus.

Note that this only counts for the player who scores the touchdown and two-point conversion. If a quarterback throws a touchdown and then runs in the two-point conversion, it would not qualify as an octopus.

If you’re unfamiliar with two-point conversions, they will occasionally occur after touchdowns. After each score, NFL teams have two options: a one-point conversion, which is kicked from 33 yards away, or a two-point conversion from the two-yard line. The difference is that instead of kicking the ball, you have to get the ball into the end zone against the opposing defense. This is significantly tougher than the extra point, resulting in a conversion rate of approximately 47.5% since 2015. Extra points were converted at 94.6% this season, so the added difficulty results in an additional point.

As for why this is called an octopus—instead of something else octo-related – you’d have to ask creator Mitch Goldich. He workshopped the idea on Twitter before essentially settling on an octopus, thanks to a suggestion from Mike Wallace.

It’s hard to say he made a poor choice. Saying octopus is just kind of fun. I don’t think they would’ve gotten nearly as popular if he had called them “octagons,” for example. Regardless, the name has stuck, and you can now find “octopus” Super Bowl prop bet wagers across the various sportsbooks.

Should You Bet the Octopus?

We saw an octopus in the Super Bowl last year, with Jalen Hurts converting a rushing touchdown and two-point conversion on the same drive. He rewarded “yes” bettors with a payout of +1400 on DraftKings.

The question is—are these bets mathematically sound?

The answer—as with most novelty bets that the sportsbooks offer—is no.

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs with the ball during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

This year, the octopus has been dropped down to just +1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Those odds translate to an 8.33% implied probability. Therefore, for the bet to be mathematically sound, we would need an octopus to occur at greater than an 8.33% clip.

Since the start of 2014, there have been 93 octopi—“octopuses?”—across 2,724 contests. That’s good for a base rate of just 3.41%. That means this bet is not even remotely close to being mathematically sound.

The true odds of an octopus occurring work out to approximately +2840. Even if other sportsbooks might offer better odds than DraftKings, they’re not going to be close to the true odds.

A lot of times that makes betting on “no” the better mathematical option. After all, who in their right mind wants to lay big juice on something not to happen? We see this frequently with safety bets in the Super Bowl—a “no safety” is typically one of the best wagers you can make from a mathematical standpoint, but it costs you a bunch of money to do so.

However, the “no octopus” market is even worse than the “yes.” Using the above 3.41% figure, it means that the odds of “no octopus” work out to 96.59%. That translates to betting odds of approximately -2857.

The current “no octopus” odds for Super Bowl LVIII on DraftKings are -6000! That’s ridiculous!

Here are the current octopus odds across the major online sportsbooks:

If more sportsbooks add octopus odds, we’ll make sure to add them to the above table. That said, no one is particularly close to pricing this market correctly at the moment. This is likely a bet that you should avoid entirely.

Disagree? You can still bet on an Octopus to occur at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place a bet of just $5 or more:

Other “Octopus” Facts to Know

Goldich coined the term back in 2019 when working for Sports Illustrated. It appears as though Torrey Smith was the inspiration for the term after catching a touchdown and two-point conversion back in October of 2018. Personally, I’m glad to see Smith ending up in the history books for one reason or another.

Believe it or not, the first octopus didn’t occur until 1994. The NFL didn’t adopt the two-point conversion until the 1994 season, which is a wild fact that I had zero clue about. Imagine how many older games could’ve been impacted if the two-point conversion was an option.

The first octopus was recorded by Torrence Small in Week 1 of the '94 season. Rob Moore also had an octopus that week, but Small’s technically came first. Moore and Terance Mathis made history by becoming the first players to score two octopi, while Ryan Mathews was the first to accomplish the feat twice in the same season.

The list of players with multiple octopus games throughout their careers is pretty impressive. Davante Adams, Mark Andrews, Jerome Bettis, Antonio Brown, Isaac Bruce, Reggie Bush, Dalvin Cook, Terrell Davis, Matt Forte, Jalen Hurts, Edgerrin James, Calvin Johnson, Alvin Kamara, and Hines Ward are just some of the players who have done it twice.

Only two players have done it more than two times. The first name shouldn’t be a surprise. Randy Moss has three career octopi, which isn’t a shock. He’s one of the most dominant receivers in NFL history, and he played his entire career in the two-point era.

The other player? Todd Gurley, who leads all players with four. Gurley may not have had the longevity, but don’t forget how dominant he was in his prime.

Interestingly, the two teams with the most octopus games are division rivals: the Packers and Vikings. Both teams have pulled it off 11 times.

For a full list of NFL octopus scorers, make sure to check out the Pro Football Reference database. You can also follow the NFL Octopus Tracker on Twitter, which notifies you whenever an octopus occurs in real time. If it does happen during Super Bowl LVIII, expect to see lots of reposts and quote tweets from that account.