As bettors, we should always be looking for ways to maximize our bankroll. There are plenty of ways to make sure we’re making the most of our dollars, including shopping for the best line and taking advantage of proper hedging situations.
That said, those aren’t the only tools in our sports betting toolbelt.
Occasionally, there will be opportunities where we can lock in a guaranteed win using something called arbitrage betting. These opportunities don’t come around every day, but they are a way to lock in a small profit regardless of the outcome of an event.
I know what you’re thinking—“This sounds too good to be true.” In some ways, you’re 100% right. There are some downsides to arbitrage betting, and for plenty of people, it’s not going to be worth the time needed to execute the strategy properly.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know about arbitrage betting: the pros, the cons, and the general philosophy.
What is arbitrage betting?
Generally speaking, arbitrage betting—or arbing/arb betting—is a form of hedging. However, hedging generally involves taking two separate bets at different times to ensure locking in a guaranteed profit. You can generally accomplish this in situations when lines move drastically before kickoff or with live betting during games.
Arbitrage betting involves placing two bets at the exact same time. One bet will be on one specific team or player prop, and the other will be on the opposite side of the same wager. This is only really possible when using multiple different sportsbooks and taking advantage of the fact that not every sporting event is priced with the same exact odds.
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Apr 8, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a solo home run in the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
For example, let’s say that the Mets and Yankees are squaring off in a regular season baseball game. On DraftKings Sportsbook, they might have the betting odds priced like this:
- New York Mets moneyline (-115)
- New York Yankees moneyline (+105)
In this case, the Mets are priced as tiny favorites, while the Yankees are available as small underdogs.
However, let’s say that FanDuel Sportsbook has the same game priced in this fashion:
- New York Mets moneyline (+105)
- New York Yankees moneyline (-115)
In this scenario, the Mets are priced as small underdogs, while the Yankees are listed as favorites.
You can see where this is going. There are only two possible outcomes to this contest.
If you lock in the Yankees on DraftKings and the Mets on FanDuel, you’re essentially grabbing both sides of the same game at +105. Whichever team ends up winning, you’ll ultimately make a profit of +0.05 units as long as your bets are for the same amount. The side that loses will cost you 1.00 units, but the side that wins will return +1.05.
You can see why this is appealing. Taking a win of +0.05 may not sound like much, but if you can do it enough times, it can definitely help support a growing bankroll.
Different types of arbitrage betting
The example I listed above is the most common example of arbitrage betting. Essentially, you’re comparing the lines across as many sportsbooks as possible to try to find tiny edges where you can’t lose.
Sometimes, the best you can do is guarantee a profit if one team wins and a break-even scenario if the other team wins, but that would still be considered a successful arbitrage opportunity. The goal is to give yourself a chance to win money without exposing yourself to any potential loss.
That said, those types of scenarios are becoming less and less common. While sportsbooks used to move lines based solely on information that they gathered from their own bettors, they are now willing to move lines “on air.” That means that if one location takes a sharp bet and adjusts its lines, the other bookmakers are likely to follow suit.
More often than not, the pricing discrepancies between the vast majority of sportsbooks are going to be minimal in major sports like the NFL, NBA, and MLB.
You can see this for yourself using any sort of line shopping tool. These are available all over the industry, and they’re extremely useful for finding which sportsbook has the best price for any specific wager. However, you’re very rarely going to find a large enough discrepancy between two books that arbitrage opportunities are going to be possible.
However, that doesn’t mean that arbitrage opportunities no longer exist. Instead, you’re more likely to find them in more niche betting markets. This includes player props, but it also includes events like the NFL and NBA Draft.
Apr 28, 2022; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected as the tenth overall pick to the New York Jets during the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft at the NFL Draft Theater. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
For example, the Action Network highlights a scenario during the 2021 NFL Draft involving Jeff Okudah. One sportsbook placed the over on his draft position of 4.5 at +115, while another placed his under at +110. That is a pretty wide margin, guaranteeing a win of either +0.15 or +0.10 units.
The line movement in events like the NFL or NBA Draft can be wild, so the books are far more likely to have different odds for the same event. That opens up more opportunities for those who are willing to scour the different bookmakers for discrepancies.
The same is true for player props. There isn’t quite as much discrepancy in those areas, but the books have to hang a lot of lines for a lot of different players. It’s possible that one book could have the over on an NBA player’s scoring prop priced at +100 while another will have his underpriced at +105. As long as you can lock in both wagers before they move—which is easier said than done—that’s another arbitrage opportunity.
Occasionally, a potential arbitrage situation will present itself purely by chance. This happens most frequently if you take a line as it opens.
If you like a particular MLB underdog in a given game at +110 and grab them right as the lines are released, it’s possible that team could be the favorite by first pitch. In that instance, you can grab the other team at better than even money for a locked-in profit.
This situation could also be defined as hedging—especially since you didn’t plan on making the second wager when you placed your first—but there’s no set definition one way or the other.
The easiest way to use arbitrage betting in 2023 is by taking advantage of odds boosts. Very often, a specific sportsbook will offer a boosted price for a specific team during certain events.
For example, for the College Football National Championship, DraftKings offered users the opportunity to grab Georgia at +100 for a maximum of $25. Georgia was priced around -150 before the boost, so Alabama was priced around +130. Grabbing the Bulldogs on DraftKings and the Crimson Tide at another location is a very responsible example of arbitrage betting.
To calculate the proper betting amounts, you can use an arbitrage calculator. You could just bet $25 on Alabama, but if Georgia wins, you’re not going to make any money. Using an arbitrage calculator will tell you exactly how much you should bet on Alabama if you want to lock in the same win regardless of who wins (in this case, $21.46):
Locking in a $3.54 profit may not be very exciting, but it does represent a +7.62% return on investment. That’s not nothing!
What are the downsides of arbitrage betting?
Arb betting may feel “risk-free,” and from a monetary standpoint, that is true if you’re doing it correctly. That said, there are some potential consequences.
The most dangerous outcome is that the sportsbooks catch on to what you’re doing and either limit or ban your betting accounts. If you can’t make bets or are limited to minuscule amounts, it’s going to seriously hinder your ability to make money as a sports bettor.
Having one or two fewer sportsbooks may not sound like a huge deal, but those are fewer opportunities to shop for the best line and take advantage of promotions. That’s enough to make arbitrage betting a risky proposition for anyone who takes betting seriously.
If you are going to engage in arbitrage betting—and hedge betting, to a lesser extent—you need to make sure that you’re placing your wagers at separate betting sites.
It may seem impossible that you’re going to get caught if you’re betting at different books, but it’s still possible. Betting companies hate arbers, and they want no part of their action. If they suspect you of engaging in the practice, they’re going to be aggressive in limiting your account.
The other big downfall is that it simply isn’t worth the time that you would need to put in to make any serious money. Think about it. If you’re a $100 bettor and you find one $5 arbitrage situation a week, you’re going to profit $260 for the year. Even if you can manage to find one a day—which is highly unlikely—that’s still only $1,825.
I’m not going to turn my nose up at any amount of money, but finding those opportunities is a time-consuming process. You’re going to need to spend hours navigating the sportsbooks, and in reality, you can find some way to spend your time that is going to pay you a better hourly rate.
You might think that you can simply increase your unit size to make the strategy worth it. That is hypothetically possible if you have a large enough bankroll, but remember that most arbitrage opportunities these days are going to come in the prop markets. Those typically have lower limits, so you’re not going to be able to fire off huge wagers for very long before getting limited.
If you’re arbing responsibly, it’s going to be instances like that Georgia-Alabama situation from earlier. Those are hardly going to make you rich in the long run.
Is arbitrage betting worth it?
If you couldn’t tell from the previous section, the answer is generally going to be a no. The margins are just too slim, and you’re not going to be able to get enough money down over the long run to make it worth your time or the risk of being banned by the sportsbooks.
That isn’t to say that you can never use it. I think using it to take advantage of things like deposit bonuses and promos can be worth it, but they’re going to be the exceptions to the rule.
When a site is offering you 50 cents of value—like DraftKings did with Georgia—you should absolutely consider going for an arbitrage wager. If you didn’t intend on betting the game to begin with, why wouldn’t you take the extra $3.54? Taking advantage of a $25 max wager isn’t enough that you’re going to raise any eyebrows, especially if you’re placing the second wager at a different book. A $3.54 payout may not be much, but it can at least buy you a (small) coffee.
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As the old saying goes, if something seems too good to be true, it usually is. If your goal is to be a successful sports bettor, there is no secret weapon to guarantee success. Arbitrage betting may seem like a great betting strategy on the surface, but it’s ultimately just fool’s gold.
