In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
It’s confession time. I love sports. Always have. I love sports so much that I decided to try to make a career out of it. I get to go to work with a smile on my face every day, which is worth all of King Midas’ silver (shoutout White Goodman).
But sometimes, being a sports fan can feel like a full-time job on its own.
Where does our model disagree with the Vegas lines? Check out our CFB Game Model to find out!
I’ve always been an NFL-NBA-MLB guy. When you’re betting on all three sports, that’s more than enough to keep my brain fully consumed.
That just doesn’t leave a ton of time for college football. I know a lot of people can power through Thursday Night Football, two full days of football on the weekend, and Monday Night Football, but those people are built differently than me.
Of course, that doesn’t mean I’m not paying attention on Saturday. I’m always looking for opportunities to win some money—we have the best CFB handicapper in the galaxy in Thor Nystrom; his best bets are below, but you can see his full model here—and I’m definitely interested in getting an early look at the next NFL superstars.
With that in mind, I bring you the ultimate guide for the casual college football fan. It’s the biggest matchups, storylines, and players to watch each week.
Looking to get access to both our College Football Game Model and our College Football Player Props Tool? Sign up for Tier 2 of FantasyLife+ to access this and so, so much more!
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- The can’t-miss moments from College Football Week 2.
- College football best bets from Thor Nystrom.
- Who’s finding the paint? Geoff Ulrich breaks down his anytime touchdown bets.
What to Watch For in College Football Week 2
- by Matt LaMarca
Texas (-7.5; FanDuel) at Michigan – Noon ET on Fox
A matchup between two top-10 teams before I’ve even had my lunch? Sign me up, baby.
Michigan is coming off a closer-than-expected win against Fresno State in Week 1, and now the Wolverines are seven-point home dogs vs. the Longhorns. That might be a tempting line to back the Wolverines, but this isn’t the same team that won last year’s National Championship.
In this same week last year, Texas went into Alabama and ended their 21-game home win streak. Michigan is riding a 23-game streak, so can the Longhorns do it again?
From a talent perspective, this game will feature two of the best players in college football in Quinn Ewers and Will Johnson. Both could end up as top-10 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, with Johnson in contention for No. 1 overall.
There’s also going to be no shortage of star power in the stands, with Matthew McConaughey, Derek Jeter, Michael Phelps, and Will Ferrell all expected to be in attendance.
Tennessee (-9.5; BetMGM) at North Carolina State – 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
I am very excited to check out this Tennessee squad for the first time this season. They absolutely rolled in their first contest, steamrolling UT Chattanooga 69-3, but they’ll face a stiffer test on Saturday. NC State is a top-25 program, and this game will be played in Charlotte.
Tennessee is going to have to navigate a gauntlet of a schedule all season, with games vs. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia on the schedule. That said, this team has the talent to challenge for a spot in the CFB playoff.
It starts with quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He was the No. 2 recruit in the 2023 class—trailing only Arch Manning—and he got his first chance to start in last year’s 35-0 bowl win over Iowa. In his two starts, he’s now completed 34 of 47 passes for 466 yards with seven total touchdowns. He’s an absolute stud, and he’s going to be playing on Sundays in the near future.
Defensively, the Vols are anchored by another future first-rounder in James Pearce Jr. He had 10 sacks as a sophomore in 2023, so the Vols have the talent to compete with the best teams in college football.
They can’t overlook the Wolfpack—who have a dangerous quarterback of their own in Grayson McCall—but I expect the Volunteers to pick up their second win of the year.
Colorado at Nebraska (-6.5; BetMGM) – 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
No disrespect to the first two games, but this is the one that will have my full attention. It may not be the two best teams in the country, but this game is dripping with storylines.
For starters, we have the Deion Sanders vs. Matt Rhule angle. These two coaches are building their programs in completely different ways, and Sanders said last year’s contest vs. Nebraska was “personal.” He’s going in a different direction before this year’s rematch in Nebraska, but I think it’s safe to say these guys don’t like each other.
More importantly, this has the potential to be one of the best quarterback matchups all season. Shedeur Sanders is a deserving Heisman Trophy candidate, and he’s coming off a monster campaign last season. Dylan Raiola is a true freshman, but the five-star recruit was extremely impressive in his first taste of college action. These guys could put on an absolute show, and I’m personally super excited to check it out.
🏈 Get Ready for CFB Week 2 with BetMGM!
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College Football Week 2 Best Bets
by Thor Nystrom
Below are my best bets for this weekend in college football Week 2, a mix of picks against the spread and player props.
Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into Fantasy Life’s Bet Tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “ATL” below stands for “Adjusted Thor Line” – my system’s spread. If you want a deeper dive into my system, we have a full CFB game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Looking to get access to both our College Football Game Model and our College Football Player Props Tool? Sign up for Tier 2 of FantasyLife+ to access this and so, so much more!
Michigan (+7.5) vs. Texas
ATL: Texas -4.5
Michigan beat Fresno State 30-10 last week. But Michigan only led 16-10 – including three made FGs from 45+ yards – in the fourth quarter before a good offensive drive and a Will Johnson pick-six.
Texas whipped Colorado State 52-0. The Rams gained a mere 192 yards of offense.
The perception of these respective results has conspired to give us what my system considers to be a field goal of fair line value in this game.
It is true that Michigan’s offense could struggle to throw on what appears to be an improved Texas pass defense. Last week, the Wolverines threw for only 121 yards against Fresno State. However, it is going to be easier for Michigan to run on Texas than people think.
Last season, Texas had an elite run defense and a mediocre pass defense. But after losing DTs Byron Murphy II and T'Vondre Sweat to the top-40 of the NFL Draft, the run defense is down. Though Colorado State couldn’t pass against Texas, CSU RB Justin Marshall ran for 106 yards (More on the Michigan run game below).
On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines are likely going to make Texas one-dimensional themselves in this game. The Longhorns will not have success running the ball against Michigan. The Wolverines had an elite run defense last year, and they returned DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. Graham and T'Vondre Sweat were the only two DTs in the nation to grade in the PFF top-10 in both run defense and pass rush.
This will put a lot of pressure on Texas QB Quinn Ewers to succeed through the air against a top-tier Michigan secondary that has lockdown CB1 Will Johnson – a top-5 overall NFL Draft prospect – on one side of the field.
A touchdown-plus seems rich for what should be a low-scoring game.
The pick: Michigan +7.5
Michigan RB Donovan Edwards UNDER 53.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Texas)
- PLUS: Michigan RB Kalel Mullings OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Texas)
We’re going to write these up in tandem because they are correlated. In short: Kalel Mullings is better than Donovan Edwards.
Last week, against Fresno State, the pair split snaps–34 for Edwards and 30 for Mullings. However, 17 of Edwards’ snaps were on passing reps, while Mullings was in on 11. Mullings was on the field on running downs a bit more, and he received more carries.
Not surprisingly, Mullings was far more effective, turning 15 carries into 92 yards (6.1 YPC). Edwards had 27 yards on 11 carries (2.5 YPC).
Mullings is a 6-foot-2, 233-pound sledgehammer. Edwards is an overhyped, overrated back who made the cover of the new CFB25 video game on the back of a few good games in 2022 and finishing off one of the P5’s worst run defenses (Washington) off the bench in last year’s title game.
In that Washington game, Edwards had two carries of 15+ yards and 87 breakaway yards. Outside of that, since the beginning of the 2023 season, he’s had three 15+ yard carries and 61 breakaway yards.
Edwards lacks vision and feel, so he struggles to find the openings through which his athleticism would otherwise shine. Mullings, on the other hand, is going to reliably churn out yards. For a Michigan offense that needs to generate yardage in any way possible, Mullings is the better option, and I expect him to overtake Edwards going forward as the early-down back of choice.
The picks: Edwards UNDER 53.5 rushing yards | Mullings OVER 45.5 rushing yards
More Week 2 Action for the College Football Slate
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Isaiah Likely did his best Kevin Durant impression on Thursday Night Football. He absolutely balled out for the Ravens … but his feet were ultimately half a size too big.
Speaking of Likely, that is an absolutely diabolical way to lose a same-game parlay at nearly +56000.
Geoff Ulrich breaks down his favorite touchdown props for NFL Week 1.
Todd Gurley… he’s just like us! It didn’t take long for Gurley to become jaded by fantasy football.
No better way to ring in the new season than with a Christian McCaffrey ATD bet. Freedman’s favorite player props for Week 1.
