In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Injury Pessimism: You want to know what really grinds my gears? Being misled or lied to. While we accept a certain amount of it in this game of ours, chalking it up to optimism (plus maybe some chicanery), this young NFL season has taught many of us a very valuable lesson—just avoid injuries like the plague.
The Seahawks said Kenneth Walker missed practice just to rest a little. The Chiefs said Hollywood Brown could suit up as early as Week 3. The Niners said Christian McCaffrey could’ve played versus the Jets if it were a playoff game. What do all those things and the Tooth Fairy have in common? If you guessed they aren’t a part of this current reality, you’d be correct.
Now, it’s a little late for fantasy drafters, but not for us prop bettors. Stop believing injury optimism and assume the worst … always. Remember, unlike baseball, a player doesn’t have to start the game to qualify—a single snap and you’re on the hook for the L.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Warm Receptions
- The New York Prop Exchange
Warm Receptions 🔥🏈—Ramming Speed!
The Rams losing Puka Nacua created a tremendous void in a premier passing offense and a healthy Matthew Stafford with Sean McVay on his headset can only mean one thing—LA is rolling on offense. And as a reception-prop bettor, there’s no better place to be. Los Angeles is already off to a hot start, leading the league in first downs per drive and receptions per game (below).
Social media discourse volleyed all week over which WR between Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson would benefit most from the injury. Frankly, I don’t think either answer is wrong—the Rams ran 3-WR sets on 100% of their Week 1 snaps. However, despite Johnson tallying more grabs and yards last week, my gut says it’s Robinson’s turn with a week of preparation. Don’t forget Demarcus earned the WR3 spot in LA late last year, leapfrogging professional go-route runner Van Jefferson on the depth chart.
It took a few games for the mind-meld to take place last season, but you can clearly see the full-time role (image left) translating directly into on-field production in terms of catches (image right).
The most encouraging thing for me this Sunday is Robinson’s willingness to run a diverse route tree (below), including high-value targets over the middle.
So why is Demarcus Robinson’s reception prop set at 3.5, even though four different WRs, including Robinson, went over that mark just last week? I’m not sure but wild horses couldn’t pull me away from this one.
P.S. Ladder bettors may want to look into the 6+ receptions (+350) ... Robinson topped it in back-to-back weeks last December.
THE BET: Demarcus Robinson O3.5 Receptions (-135)
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The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—King James’ Works
We wait months for fresh NFL data only for me to tell you not to trust it. Go figure. Sorry y’all, but you know it’s not just out of love but it’s true. Believe it or not, part of why I make sure to say that stuff out loud every so often is so it sticks to me as well.
Now that I properly prepared you to go over a rushing prop on a player with a 3.1 YPC and negative rush yards over expectation on the year, at least the matchup is gold. We may be repeating all season how you want to run against these Rams without Aaron Donald—LA is already dead last in Defensive Rush EPA/Snap and Defensive Rush Success Rate (below).
Yes, James Conner looked a little bit like a plodder last Sunday, posting a below-average success rate and average max speed. Well, I’m chalking it up to rust. Conner dominated team rushes to date and I refuse to believe he’s that far removed from the +86 RuYd/game average down the stretch last year with Kyler (below).
The Cards should lean into the ground game early and often looking for chunk plays—but also do their best and keep Stafford off the field.
THE BET: James Conner O70.5 Rushing Yards (+130) DK
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🤝 Are you free later this morning? Join Matthew Freedman and Chris Allen for a 90-minute Q&A session starting at 9 a.m. ET. Morning coffee, Freedman and Chris, what could be better?
🐻 Will Caleb Williams bounce back in Week 2? SNF Bets for Texans vs. Bears.
📊 What are the 49ers odds to win the Super Bowl, even after putting CMC on IR? Check it out on our Futures Bets Tool.
👀 The Fantasy Life “Parlay Builder” is now live. Let’s do this.
📈 Don’t let a down Week 1 dissuade you … these players are set to bounce back.
🚨 ICYMI: Freedman breaks down his favorite player prop bets for Week 2.
The Sharps Are Feeding: Bears at Texans
Presented by Sharp Hunter
By Mike Mutnansky of Sharp Hunter
How does the NBC promo go?
"I've been waiting all day for Sunday Nightttttttttttttt!!!!!"
The sharps seem to agree.
NFL's Week 2 Sunday wraps up with the Texans hosting the Bears in primetime—The Texans are 6.5-point home favorites. Can you guess where the Sharp money is going?
As of Saturday afternoon, we're showing a strong "Three-bag Sharp Score" on the Texans laying the 6.5. This line would probably be higher if not for the Bears’ big comeback win last Sunday.
Chicago came battling back from a 17-point deficit to overtake the Titans in Week 1. According to Action Network, teams that play on the road after a SU win in their previous game, coming back by 17+ pts, are 20-33 SU, 23-29-1 ATS the next week in the last 20 years. Not great for Chicago!
In the win, the Bears clocked the 28th-ranked offense in the league per DVOA. Now, they have to go to Houston and try and get rookie Caleb Williams going against Week 1's 12th-ranked pass defense.
The Bears were lucky to come back and win Week 1. Can they go to Houston and keep it close against Texans?
I'm not seeing it. And the sharps we're tracking at Sharp Hunter seem to agree. I'll play the Texans at -6.5 or better on Sunday Night.
