I have an awesome job. Amazing. I get to think about sports all day. There's not one thing bad about my job.

Buuuuut if you forced me to come up with one thing perhaps less than perfect about my occupation, it's that whenever new acquaintances learn of how I make my living they inevitably ask me, “Who's winning the Super Bowl?”

I don't know.

But I can't say that. I must provide an answer — and it can't be "The Chiefs," because if that's my answer then what value do I provide them?

So I say something like, "The Ravens," or "The Eagles," or "The Rams" — and then months later, when the Chiefs win the Super Bowl (again) I look like a fool.

Still, if that's the worst part of my job, then I got it pretty good.

Speaking of “pretty good” — The Chiefs are my official pick to win the 2024-25 Super Bowl.

Yeah, I'd never say that to some random newbies I met while hanging out at a brewery.

But I'm happy to say that to you, a fellow degenerate who saw this article online and thought, “I've already read 250 pieces this offseason on who's gonna win the Super Bowl — but let's make it an even 251.”

“An even 251” — that doesn't even make sense. What kind of sicko are you?

Let me tell you what kind of sicko you are: You're the kind who needs someone to remind you that most of the time the long way around isn't the fastest way home.

Most of the time, that which seems actually is.

Most years, the Chiefs are probably the correct Super Bowl bet.

Freedman's Official Super Bowl Bet: Chiefs +600 (FanDuel)

This bet is chalky, but this line is simply not short enough.

The Chiefs have the league's best overall player in Patrick Mahomes, and he has a sufficient backup in Carson Wentz. If Mahomes were to miss a few games, the Chiefs would still have an excellent chance of making the playoffs, and once in the postseason, a Mahomes-led team can win almost regardless of circumstances, even if the Chiefs don't get a bye; even if they have to play on the road — as the Chiefs proved this past year.

Check out all of our expert “best bets” for the 2024 season here

And they also have the league's best overall coach in HC Andy Reid. Entering his 12th year with the team, Reid has double-digit wins and a playoff appearance in every Kansas City season but one. Reid's win total record with the Chiefs is an outstanding 9-2. He regularly exceeds preseason expectations.

In six seasons with Mahomes as a starter, Reid has never had fewer than 11 regular season wins while making the AFC Championship every year, appearing in four Super Bowls, and winning three of them.

A 50% hit rate on Super Bowl victories for the Mahomes-Reid combo is obscene and almost certainly not representative of what we should expect moving forward. That said, the team's +600 odds to win the Super Bowl carry a 14.29% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and that number on its face strikes me as too low.

Mahomes is about to turn 29 years old. Tom Brady won MVP when he was 40. Drew Brees led the league with a 74.3% completion rate when he was 40. It's possible Mahomes could still be one of the league's best passers when he's 40.

So let's say he and the Chiefs have a forward-looking championship window of another 12 seasons. If I set an over/under of 1.5 championships for Mahomes in that timeframe, I believe most bettors would smash the over.

And they'd be profitable if right.

Two championships at +600 per season would net a $100 bettor a profit of $200 in that period (10 years of losing $100 + two years of winning $600 = $200). Three championships would yield a profit of $900 (-$900 + $1,800). And a greedy four championships would result in $1,600 (-$800 + $2,400).

Over the long run, a +600 bet on the Chiefs to win a Super Bowl — as long as they have Mahomes — is likely to be profitable.

And this bet isn't just about the long term: The Chiefs have a number of factors in their favor this year that should endear them to bettors.

  • They have a top-eight defense. Last year they were No. 2 in scoring and yards allowed, and even though they traded away CB L'Jarius Sneed this offseason they retained enough of their core defensive contributors to field an impact unit this year, especially with DC Steve Spagnuolo still on the staff.
  • They markedly improved their offense this offseason with the additions of WRs Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. Last year the Chiefs were embarrassingly No. 15 in scoring after finishing top-six in each of the six previous seasons, and they are likely to enjoy an offensive bounceback in 2024.
  • They are in a weak division, thanks primarily to the Broncos (5.5 win total, rookie QB Bo Nix) and Raiders (6.5 win total, journeyman QB Gardner Minshew). As long as the Chiefs can split their season series with the Chargers, they should be able to leverage a 5-1 divisional record into another AFC West title and strong postseason seeding. 

It feels almost needless to make a case for the Chiefs — because they've so clearly been the best team in the league for the past six years: They have the Super Bowls to prove it.

And yet I still think they're undervalued in the market. Any team with Mahomes, Reid, and a top quartile defense shouldn't be any greater than +500 to win a championship in any season. 

Other Super Bowl Bets

While the Chiefs are my official Super Bowl pick, I have a few other Super Bowl bets, because this isn't just a one-and-done thing: If the market gives us +EV opportunities, we're going to take them. We don't need to limit ourselves to just one bet. We can build a portfolio of futures — and that's what we're doing. All of these bets are logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

  • 49ers (+650, SugarHouse): Over the past five years, the 49ers have made the NFC Championship four times and just narrowly missed out on two Super Bowl victories.
  • Ravens (+1000, DraftKings): With two-time MVP QB Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are 58-19 (75.3% win rate). As long as Jackson is healthy, they'll make the playoffs.
  • Chargers (+4500, DraftKings): Check out my article on my favorite futures longshot bets to see why I like the Chargers this season.