It’s playoff time, and we are back. 

We had our second winning week in a row, with the props going 4-1 and the 9.06x Underdog card hitting. 

Shoutout to Aaron Rodgers for hitting the over 1.5 passing TDs prop at a solid +145 in what was potentially the last game of his career (probably not, but maybe).

With six massive games on the slate for the start of the playoffs, we still have a ton of opportunities this week for props. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props did, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

I’ll again be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article.

Just like usual, you can find all my Wildcard bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props…

Wildcard Weekend Player Props

Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions 

  • Odds: +110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 2.7

This line looks almost suspiciously low to me. The Broncos do love to rotate their RBs, but Williams has a clearly defined role in this offense as the long down and distance and pass-catching back thanks to his prowess in pass protection. 

For the season, he posted 3+ receptions in nine of 17 games and saw good usage in the Broncos' closing game, catching three balls on four targets for 50 yards. Add in the fact that Bills coverage vs. RBs is lacking (second-most receptions allowed to opposing RBs) and you have to love the prices on the over 2.5 receptions we’re getting in this spot. 

As an aside, I’ve also ladder-bet Williams on his alternate yards and reception lines in this game. He’s still available at the following prices on bet365:

  • 30+ rec yards +320
  • 40+ rec yards +600
  • 50+ rec yards +1100
  • 4+ catches +225
  • 5+ catches +400

I think there is good value on these lines. I already discussed the positive matchup above, plus the fact the Broncos could be trailing this entire game, which would mean more reps and routes for Williams. 

Additionally, to hit some of these lines, it’s not like we’re asking Williams to do something he hasn’t done with regularity this season already — he’s gone for 40+ yards four times and caught 4+ passes six times. 

It’s very reasonable that he hits some or all of those milestones again given the setup in this game. 

For more Wildcard Weekend betting analysis, unlock the full suite of Utilization Tools, Player Comparison tools, and more with a FantasyLife+ Tier 2 membership below.

Austin Ekeler Over 17.5 receiving yards  

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection 22.0

I like buying into the somewhat depressed lines we have on Austin Ekeler this week. The Commanders haven’t run the ball very effectively with Brian Robinson Jr. over the last few games, and Ekeler's return gives them another option to explore offensively. 

The former Charger remains one of the premier pass-catchers at his position and managed to average right around 3.0 catches and 30 yards receiving this season, despite being in a timeshare. 

This week, he’ll also be up against a pass funnel defense in the Buccaneers who allowed Ekeler to go for 52 yards on four receptions back in Week 1. For the season, the Bucs allowed the fourth-fewest rush yards to opposing RBs and allowed just 2.6 yards per carry over their last three games. However, they were far more susceptible to big plays from RBs through the air, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards and receptions to opposing RBs. 

Even with his lines having risen a bit, Ekeler’s totals are still below his seasonal averages in this market, where he regularly went off at 20.5 yards or higher, so there is likely some value in playing this over up to 19.5 (-110). 

Aaron Jones Under 14.5 carries 

  • Odds: -110 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 13.8

I took Jones to go under his carry total last week and it worked out swimmingly. The Vikings continue to give Cam Akers touches every week and have limited Jones to well under 60% of the team's carries in the last two games. Akers has now taken at least six carries in three of his last four starts and vastly outperformed Jones last week, going for six carries and 65 yards rushing. 

Maybe the Vikings' defense completely shuts down Matthew Stafford and Jones gets there, but as long as this total is over 14.0. I see it as a solid under play. Los Angeles is the home team, has beaten Minnesota once already this season, and runs the ball extremely well, which should limit Jones’ touches. 

Teams facing the Rams over the last three weeks have only averaged 22 rushing attempts per game (fifth-fewest over that span). And since Week 14, only one RB has taken more than 14 carries against the Rams (Isaac Guerendo had 16 in Week 15).

If Sam Darnold doesn’t rebound, this one may hit easily once again.  

George Pickens over 3.5 receptions 

  • Odds: -150 (bet365)
  • Projection: 4.2

Full disclosure: I took Pickens over 3.5 receptions when it opened at -125 and placed the bet in Free NFL Bet Tracker. Still, I don’t think this line is too short to bet at the current prices. 

We have Pickens projected for over 4.2 receptions, and it’s for good reason. Despite the horrendous finish, Pickens is still the primary target in a Steelers passing attack that could be dropping back more than it wants to in this game thanks to the explosive Ravens offense on the other side. 

He also plays for a players coach in Mike Tomlin who knows Pickens is his best offensive player and likely his best chance of matching the Ravens' offense in this game. 

Overall, Pickens has gone over 3.5 receptions in five of eight games with Wilson at QB this season and is in a decent matchup vs. a Ravens secondary he beat for eight receptions and 89 yards in Week 11. 

If this price drops below -155 I'd likely think about playing the over on his yards instead as long as the total is under 55 yards. 

Jayden Reed 20+ Rushing Yards 

  • Odds: +900 (bet365)
  • 30+ rush yards (+1650; bet365)

Let’s end with a fun one. This line is only available on bet365 as of this writing, but you may see more books add Reed rushing totals before kickoff. Regardless, this line seems way off to me. 

The Packers like to get Reed involved in different ways, which includes stretching the field with him as a runner. In their first game against the Eagles back in Week 1, Reed broke free for a 33-yard run. 

I doubt Matt LaFleur has forgotten about this play, especially given how ferocious the Eagles' defensive line has been this season. With Christian Watson also hurt, there seems like a high likelihood of Reed getting a few rushing attempts again this week in an attempt to stretch the field — and play away from the Eagles' strength. 

That’s the analysis side of this bet. The numbers side paints an even better picture. For his career, Reed has played 35 games in the LaFleur offense and gone for 20+ rushing yards seven times (he’s also gone for 19+ rush yards nine times). 

That’s a 20% hit rate of hitting for 20+ yards rushing, compared to a current line of +950, which is essentially giving us implied odds of 10.0%. A nice edge for sure. 

For what it’s worth, Reed has also gone for 30+ rush yards four times in 35 games for an 11% hit rate. His current odds for 30+ rush yards sit at +1650 (5.7% implied odds). 

You can also play the over on Reed's 1.5 rush yards line (-110; bet365) if you're a little more risk-averse (again, I think he’s got a great chance for multiple carries in this spot) but I do think there is better value on the alternate lines. 

Either way, waiting it out to see if the Packers get him involved with a couple stretch runs will be a fun sweat!

Wildcard Card Weekend Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick note: You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season. 

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on. 

Underdog Card 1 (3-way, 8.25x multiplier)

  • Cooper Kupp higher 59.5 receiving yards (alt line)
  • Justin Jefferson higher 6.5 receptions 
  • Aaron Jones lower 14.5 carries

Underdog Card #2 (3-way, 5.4 x multiplier) 

  • Baker Mayfield higher 249.5 passing yards
  • Cade Otton higher 29.5 rec yards
  • Austin Ekeler higher 19.5 rec yards

Week 18 Recap

  • Tyrone Tracy Over 49.5 rushing yards -110 ✅
  • DK Metcalf Over 52.5 rec yards -110 ✅
  • Cole Kmet Over 12.5 rec yards -110 X
  • Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs +145 ✅
  • Marvin Mims Over 2.5 receptions -115 ✅
  • Underdog 3-way 9.06x ✅
    • Rodgers higher 1.5 passing tds
    • Davante Adams higher 5.5 receptions
    • Marvin Mims higher 3.5 receptions 

For more Wildcard Weekend betting analysis, unlock the full suite of Utilization Tools, Player Comparison tools, and more with a FantasyLife+ Tier 2 membership below.