In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues
The Betting Life Newsletter was launched last year.
I was brought in right before the season started in August, and while I didn’t have as much time to prepare as I would have liked, once the season rolled around I did know two things were certain:
First, we had the right people in place for a successful year.
Second, I would lean heavily on our tools, advice, and projections.
At the end of the day, the results were there:
2023 NFL results (me): +20.7u bet tracker | +65.44 units pick’em tracker.
A lot of that profit came from betting props, where (as mentioned above) I leaned heavily on our tools.
I also listened to my co-workers during the week and used their advice to make a whole lotta pick’em tickets—and a weekly group chat parlay (+16.18 units over the season).
So, to start this new year, I’m going to give you my very simple and very easy way to get the best out of our site. It’s what I did last season and it’s what anyone with a FantasyLife+ subscription can do as well.
Check out the Fantasy Life projections early in the week (Tuesday or Wednesday).
Check the bet tracker daily (and join our Free Discord).
Use our trackers, projections, and prop finder tool to shop for the best edges.
Listen to all the smart people on the Betting Life YouTube channel.
P.S.: I’m sorry my first introduction came off as a bit of a pitch, but I promise I’ll work in more Seinfeld references by Week 13 (our editors will be too tired to stand at that point anyway).
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Like Caleb Williams, but don’t trust Caleb Williams. How to approach the Bears vs. Titans matchup in Week 1.
- Matt LaMarca has a few more NFL Futures to bet before kickoff.
- Watercooler: All six division previews in the palm of your hand (Thanos would be proud).
NFL Week 1—A Bear Trap is looming in Chicago
by Geoff Ulrich
Look, I like Caleb Williams. He seems like a fun guy who doesn’t care what people think (or at least acts that way). He’s a gunslinger. He has the tools to make some eye-popping plays. All great.
I also don’t trust Caleb Williams. Williams is a rookie, and rookie QBs in Week 1 of the NFL season are not to be trusted. And when I say not to be trusted, I mean it. The stats are sobering:
Since 2016, 12 different rookie QBs have started Week 1. After last year they have a combined 2-9-1 straight-up record (Via ESPN).
Three different rookie QBs started in Week 1 last season. They all lost by two scores or more.
Since 2003, there have been 14 different QBs, who were also first-overall picks, start their first game as rookies in Week 1. They're a combined 0-13-1 in those games.
After Bryce Young threw two INTs in Week 1 last year, the last nine 1st-overall picks (who were also QBs) have thrown at least one INT in their first start.
Maybe Williams is different, and maybe he does end up being great, but maybe for Week 1, it just won’t matter.
Time to Titan Up?
All this trend nonsense aside, the Titans also just seem like a very undervalued and dangerous Week 1 opponent.
This offseason they revamped their O-Line (through the draft, coaching, and free agency), and added high-end starters on offense (Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, and Tyler Boyd) and defense (Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed). They have a QB in Will Levis who threw four TDs in his debut last season and had a 10.6-yard average depth of target in 2023 that led the league.
Current Titans head coach, Bryan Callahan, also likes to throw the ball. In his last gig as the OC in Cincinnati (with Zac Taylor calling plays) they ranked seventh, second, and third in early-down pass rate in three seasons—something Matt LaMarca touched on in his AFC South preview. It’s a strategy that equates to more optimal results and an approach that could work against Chicago (19th in EPA per dropback).
Oh, and if you’re worried about rookie head coaches making their first start on the road? Don’t be. Even with DeMeco Ryans failing to cover in a Week 1 road start last season, rookie head coaches on the road in Week 1 are still 56-40-2 ATS since 2022. A clear signal that coaches like Callahan tend to be massively undervalued in these spots.
Get in losers, we’re going bear-hunting
I’m not writing off the Bears for 2024, or Williams, but at anything bigger than a FG, I’m happy taking the points with Tennessee. Additionally, if you’re looking for a way to fade Williams more directly, going over his 0.5 INT total is also a prop I plan to use in Pick’em tickets for Week 1.
With his INT prop sitting at -125 to -130 on most sportsbooks, it’s a solid deal on sites like Underdog that haven’t discounted the payouts on the over as of this writing.
Bets: Titans +4.5 (-110; DraftKings), Caleb Williams Over 0.5 INTs (Underdog)
You can search for MLB Player Props for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Finder!
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NFL Future Bets to Make Before Week 1: Expect a Career-Year for DK Metcalf?
by Matt LaMarca
We have made it to the first week of September, which means the start of the NFL regular season is nigh.
The Chiefs and Ravens will kick off the season on Thursday, followed by a matchup between the Packers and Eagles on Friday. Then we have our first full Sunday of the regular season, with Monday Night Football between the Jets and 49ers to wrap things up. Add in a little college football on Saturday, and it’s a truly elite five-day stretch.
With the start of the season imminent, it’s time to take one last look at the futures market and ensure that we have all our boxes checked. Which teams are we bullish on, who do we want to fade, and what are the best ways to do so?
Let’s dive into a few last-minute bets to target before the start of the year.
DK Metcalf Most Receiving Touchdowns (+2700; FanDuel)
I’m stealing this one from John Laghezza, who has done a great job of manning the Betting Life Newsletter over the past month. The odds on Metcalf to lead the league in receiving touchdowns have dipped from +3000 to +2700 over the past week or so, but that still stands out as a tremendous value.
+2700 gives Metcalf approximately the 15th-shortest odds in this market. That makes this a misprice just looking at his numbers from the past few years. He was sixth in PFF’s expected receiving touchdowns last year, and he’s been the most-targeted player in the end zone over the past two seasons. He’s racked up 42 end-zone targets since 2022, and no one else is in the same zip code. Mike Evans is the only other player with more than 30, and he just barely makes the cut at 31.
Those numbers make Metcalf appealing to begin with, but they don’t even account for the potential change in offensive philosophy in Seattle. Gone is Pete Carroll, and he’s hopefully taking his run-first philosophy with him. Ryan Grubb will be running the offense instead, and he opted for a pass-heavy attack during his time and the University of Washington.
With Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks should undoubtedly be leaning on their aerial attack. This could be a career year for Metcalf from a volume perspective, and given his athletic ability, that’s a dangerous proposition for opposing defenses.
Check out our College Football best bets every week of the season.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Behind on your prep? Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca have a full slate of 2024 NFL division previews (plus favorite bets) for you to digest.
There was some big-time movement in the Heisman futures after a crazy Week 1. Buffs dual-threat Travis Hunter saw the biggest move.
Did you last-minute decide you actually DO want to play fantasy football this season? Don’t worry, these drafts are FAST.
Our Staff went through their favorite NFL Bounceback Candidates for 2024. Don’t sleep on these vets.
An upset for the ages, and potentially the worst bet of all time. Friends don’t let friends bet -10000 favorites.
The room is open. Futures and Week 1 Bets are flowing into our FREE NFL Bet Tracker.
