Win Totals Revisited: Updating My Over/Under Betting Picks for the 2024 NFL Season

It's Labor Day, which means the NFL season is almost here.

To celebrate getting a day off from work … I've decided to work.

And by "work," I mean “update my power ratings for all 32 teams and my projections for all 272 games.”

When I project games, I assign a win probability for each game to each team, and if I add up all of those win probabilities, then that gives me a projected win total for each team.

2024 NFL Projected Win Totals

Here are my updated projected win totals for the 2024 NFL season, along with some notes on how I approach the win totals market and some bets I like (all logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

How to Approach the Win Totals Market

Most futures markets are "positively inclined." They reward bettors if teams or individuals hit particular benchmarks. It's not hard to find a bet to like if you're bullish.

But there are only a few ways to invest if you're bearish, perhaps the most obvious of which is via win totals. As a result, this market (for me) exists almost entirely for negative bets.

If I like a team, I'm likely to bet it to win the Super Bowl or its conference or division, as those bets usually offer longer odds. That way, I have a shot at a bigger payday if I'm directionally correct.

But if I dislike a team, I'll probably bet against it in the win total market — especially if I can do so at plus odds.

Keep that perspective in mind as you review the following bets. It's not that I hate every team in the NFL this year. It's simply that if I make a bet on a season win total it will almost always be to fade a team.

49ers Under 11 Wins

• Odds: +115 (Caesars)
• Projection: 10.9
• Cutoff: +105

The consensus line across the market is 11.5 with the under moderately juiced (-140 to -150), but at Caesars we can get plus odds by sacrificing half a win, and I'm fine with that, especially since I'll get my investment back if the actual total lands right on 11.

With the projection of 10.9, the 49ers are close to a 50/50 proposition at 11 wins, and if I can flip coins while having an edge of 15 cents then I'll do it all day long.

I think the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the league, and I have a bet on them to win the Super Bowl — but they could still do that with 10 wins, and I think a barbell approach to them is best.

• If they do well, they could finally go all the way.
• If they don't do well, they could notably underperform.

They're in a tough division: The Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals are all legitimate postseason candidates. Three-time All-Pro LT Trent Williams might sit out games because of a contract dispute, and WR Brandon Aiyuk could be rusty after missing training camp with his holdout. And All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) is now 28 years old and entering the season with a leg strain, which could linger.

Eagles Under 10.5 Wins

• Odds: +132 (Caesars)
• Projection: 9.9
• Cutoff: -130

Over 10.5 wins is as low as -130 at DraftKings, which means that this market offers a negative-hold opportunity. As a result, as long as we have a lean we should probably bet it.

And I have more than a lean.

I see the bull case for the Eagles: I have a ticket on QB Jalen Hurts to win MVP at +1400 (DraftKings). But the Eagles — like the 49ers — might be an ideal barbell team: If they do well, they could return to the Super Bowl, but if they disappoint they could be far worse than people expect.

It's not hard to see the bear case: The team is on its fifth offensive and defensive play callers in five years. Continuity is the stuff of championships, and the Eagles have had subpar coaching persistence for the past half decade.

They have a talented roster, but a slow start (or a late collapse, like the one they suffered last year), could drive them to the under.

Bears Under 8.5 Wins

• Odds: +140 (BetMGM)
• Projection: 8.5
• Cutoff: +110

QB Caleb Williams might end up being a Hall of Famer — but right now he's a rookie who has a defensive HC with a 10-24 record (Matt Eberflus) and a new OC with a penchant for giving too much playing time to TEs (Shane Waldron, who was a TEs coach before becoming a coordinator).

Additionally, the Bears are in one of the hardest NFL divisions, and Eberflus almost certainly trails Lions HC Dan Campbell, Packers HC Matt LaFleur and Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell in sharpness.

In the past 10 years, the Bears have gone under this number nine times.

Jaguars Under 8.5 Wins

• Odds: +100 (DraftKings)
• Projection: 8.1
• Cutoff: -120

The Jaguars have gone over this number in both seasons under HC Doug Pederson, but outside of QB Trevor Lawrence they have a somewhat talent-deficient roster … and Lawrence has increasingly looked less like the prince who was promised as his career has progressed.

Browns Under 8.5 Wins

• Odds: +120 (bet365)
• Projection: 8.1
• Cutoff: -120

HC Kevin Stefanski has won Coach of the Year twice — but in his other two seasons the Browns have gone under 8.5 wins. Since joining the Browns in 2022, QB Deshaun Watson has just 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt (vs. 8.3 with the 2017-20 Texans), and now he enters the season with a 30-year-old No. 1 WR (Amari Cooper) and without the team's Pro Bowl RB (Nick Chubb).

Last season the defense was No. 1 in yards allowed (4,593), but defense tends not to be sticky year over year, and the Browns are in one of the league's toughest divisions.

Titans Under 5.5 Wins

• Odds: +190 (Caesars)
• Projection: 5.5
• Cutoff: +110

There's value at the consensus line of under 6.5 (-125, Caesars), but there's even more in the alternative win totals market at 5.5.

Relative to the team power ratings implied by the betting market (via Inpredictable), I am lower on the Titans than almost any other team.

• My Power Ratings: Titans -4.5
• Inpredictable: Titans -3.1

So it makes sense that I see such value betting against them in the alternative totals market.

QB Will Levis might not even be better than backup Mason Rudolph. In fact, there's a chance that he's literally only the No. 8 QB in the AFC South. We'll need to see how he develops — he could become a Pro Bowler — but his 0-4 against-the-spread record last year in division is hardly encouraging.

And outside of division, the Titans play the Jets, Packers, Dolphins, Bills, Lions, Chargers and Bengals.

Where will the Titans find wins this year? Trick question: They won't.