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Windy City 2025 MLB Futures Bets: Cubs Are NL Central Favorites
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Windy City Vibes: Welcome back to the next installment of our 2025 Betting Life MLB team preview series. Today we head out to Chicago for baseball’s most obvious yin and yang, the Cubs and White Sox …
I’ll walk everyone through my anticipated Opening Day lineups, five category projections, and star-ranked rotations.
And, of course, we can’t leave you without my favorite futures bet for each team we cover (my apologies for forgetting the Cardinals’ and Reds’—I added them into a special section today).
Windy City Preview
While you should check out our 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Kit it is very clearly baseball season for me now.
Welcome to our MLB team betting previews and correlating futures plays SZN. Woohoo!
Remember, we’ve got you covered year-round. Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams’ needs. Our very own Thor Nystrom just came out with the latest QB rankings for the 2025 NFL Draft. And plenty of serious betting and fantasy content.
Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.
WHO’S THE FAVORITE IN THE NL CENTRAL?
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Click here, click there … click everywhere!
🏆 Fantasy Life is up for some hardware from FSWA, with a Laghezza double play.
🏈 Thor Nystrom’s NFL Draft QB ranks are officially in! Sanders-Ward-Dart-Milroe are your Top 4.
🎯 After throwing 41 TDs in 2024, Baker Mayfield could still use another target.
⚽ MLS season is almost officially upon us. The favorite? Inter Miami at +370.
⚾ Random dynasty sleeper pitcher of the day: The Yankees’ Cam Schlittler. Here’s his B-Ref page for your perusal!
👾 This video of Jasson Dominguez BP should temporarily make Yankees fans forget about Juan Soto.
👕 …and that shirt is a RotoWear special!
🎸 Adam Sandler summing up 50 years of SNL was perfection.
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MLB Team Preview⚾🐻—Chicago Cubs
The Cubs finished 2024 tied with the Cardinals at 83-79, 10 games behind Milwaukee. Well, every Opening Day means getting to shake that Etch-A-Sketch for a fresh start at the World Series trophy. GM Carter Hawkins made a huge splash this offseason bringing in slugger Kyle Tucker to put his squad atop the projected National League Central standings with a great chance to make the postseason (currently set at -140, or ~58%).
Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)
- Ian Happ, LF: .239 / 79 / 77 / 21 / 11
- Kyle Tucker, RF: .271 / 90 / 90 / 27 / 20
- Seiya Suzuki, DH: .260 / 77 / 76 / 22 / 14
- Michael Busch 1B: .229 / 65 / 72 / 20 / 3
- Dansby Swanson SS: .247 / 76 / 76 / 21 / 15
- Nico Hoerner 2B: .270 / 64 / 47 / 4 / 25
- Pete Crow-Armstrong CF: .241 / 69 / 55 / 15 / 28
- Matt Shaw 3B: .244 / 54 / 51 / 13 / 15
- Miguel Amaya C: .225 / 32 / 35 / 8 / 0
Hitting Overview: One of the more interesting takeaways I’ve gotten myself while doing these previews is identifying a team’s type when assuming these macro viewpoints. One thing not properly reflected in projected batting averages is a team’s ability to get on base and this iteration of the Cubs will be doing a ton of that—five of the first six batters in this year’s lineup posted a +.335 on-base percentage last year.
With ducks on the pond, it’s just a matter of getting them in and these Cubs should have no issues there either. Not only did each of the top four batters sock 20+ dingers in 2024, but they all posted a +.190 ISO to boot (isolated slugging, for my less-nerdy compadres is essentially a hitter’s extra-base hit rate).
What the back of the CHC order may lack in pop, they make up for in spades with speed. Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong combined for 77 steals—more than the Tigers, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, and Twins racked up as a team for the entire season. And that fails to mention the promotion of 2023’s 23rd overall pick Matt Shaw, who stole 31 bags across two levels in MiLB, to go with 21 bombs and a .284 batting average.
Especially considering the lateral movements (if that) but the rest of the division, the Cubbies certainly deserve the Central’s pole position.
Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):
- Shota Imanaga, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Steele, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jameson Taillon, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
- Matthew Boyd, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐
- Javier Assad, RHP:⭐⭐
Starting Pitching Overview: That’s a lot of stars—and I don’t just hand them out. Hitting’s great and all but starting pitching’s what moves my needle. Japanese import Shota Imanaga stuck his thumb in the eye of any negative adjustment-based narratives with a brilliant first season here in the States—his 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 21.1% K-BB all scream future ace.
Of course, I got so excited to mention my boy Imanaga, I almost forgot to identify Chicago’s type on the hill—runner prevention. While their hurlers may not be up on the bump pumping gas (no one tops out over 93 MPH), exactly zero of the Cubs’ top four projected starters posted a WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) over 1.15 in 2024. Just for some reference on how outstanding that is, only 24 starters with +140 IP accomplished that feat last season.
Barring a disastrous run of injuries to the staff, expect books to list the Cubs as favorites more nights than not.
WHAT ARE KYLE TUCKER’S NL MVP ODDS?
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MLB Team Preview⚾🧦—Chicago White Sox
Thumper once said, “If you can't say something nice, don't say nothing at all.” If that’s the case, I guess that will do it for my CHW team preview. Kidding aside, according to Wikipedia the Chicago White Sox are an American professional baseball team in Major League Baseball—which is probably the nicest thing to say about them at this point.
After posting the league’s lowest win total since the 1962 expansion Metropolitans, the Pale Hose just missed the playoffs last year, falling only 45 games short of the second season. Yikes. There’s only one direction to go from here, right?
While it’s impossible to project or predict another 121-loss season, I’m not so sure. The only moves GM Chris Getz made consisted of barely replacement-level players like Martín Pérez and Joey Gallo, who’d struggle to even find roster spots anywhere else in MLB. When veteran infielder Josh Rojas is your big offseason splash, as the kids say, you’re down bad.
Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)
- Mike Tauchman, RF: .235 / 43 / 35 / 8 / 6
- Luis Robert Jr., CF: .244 / 80 / 71 / 24 / 26
- Andrew Benintendi, LF: .251 / 59 / 57 / 12 / 7
- Andrew Vaughn, 1B: .256 / 70 / 82 / 25 / 1
- Josh Rojas, 3B: .232 / 41 / 33 / 8 / 10
- Lenyn Sosa, 2B: .247 / 44 / 49 / 12 / 3
- Miguel Vargas, DH: .236 / 45 / 43 / 12 / 7
- Colson Montgomery, SS: .210 / 37 / 35 / 9 / 3
- Korey Lee: .213 / 23 / 23 / 6 / 4
Hitting Overview: Not to incessantly dogpile on the White Sox, they also have a type—just not the one you’d want to be associated with your club. A running theme throughout the batting order would be above-average contact rates paired with solid elevation rates—but that dog won’t hunt on its own without any power behind it. Yes, we love flyballs, but if you don’t get them over the fence they almost always translate into outs.
There’s so little to be excited about in terms of offense, we’re beyond comical roster construction and bordering on malpractice. I guess in a best-case scenario, Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn find their stroke on their way to a breakout—which would likely find them wearing another team’s uniform after the trade deadline.
Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):
- Martin Pérez, LHP: ⭐
- Jonathan Cannon, RHP: ⭐
- Davis Martin, RHP: ⭐
- Sean Burke, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
- Bryse Wilson, RHP: ⭐
Pitching Overview: With a lineup like the one listed above, all the Sox’s talent must be front-loaded to the pitching side, right? If your guess was an emphatic “no,” you’d be absolutely correct (audible sigh). Chicago enters the 2025 season by pairing the American League’s worst offense with what must easily be the worst starting rotation (second audible sigh).
Outside of 25-year-old rookie RHP Sean Burke, who excelled in a short MLB sample last year, without hyperbole, there’s almost no chance books list as a favorite all year. Why? None of the other White Sox “frontline” starters hung an ERA under 4.00, WHIP under 1.32, or K-BB% over 11.5%. For reference on that last number, we’re looking for a number over 20… woof.
When a team is projecting 100 losses before injuries and their subsequent effects set in, being “down bad” may not properly capture the horrendous situation Chicago finds itself in. If there’s a bright side for fans, maybe ownership starts selling dollar dogs to promote more meat in the seats.
CHECK OUT SEAN BURKE’S ODDS TO WIN AL ROY
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Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Quick Hit Futures Bets
Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do.
It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.
THE BET: Cubs To Win NL Central (+140) 0.50u
Must admit, Draftkings’ price on a Cub divisional crown pleasantly surprised me after spending the last week covering my uninspired expectations for the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals. Our Brewers preview won’t be out until Wednesday, but I can tease it now—they’re getting a public push mostly on nam -brand. Jackson Chourio’s a nice young bat, but I’m not crazy about the rotation, and Milwaukee jettisoned stars Willy Adames and Devin Williams. The starting five’s not scaring anyone outside of Freddy Peralta, and there’s a reason the Brew Crew’s baseline win total dropped 10 full games from last year’s output.
Chicago’s shown it’s dead-set on improving after an aggressive offseason with an all-important willingness to add assets at the deadline. The Cubs currently have the division’s best team top to bottom, reflected in the highest win total at sportsbooks
THE BET: Chicago White Sox Longest Win Streak Under 4.5 (-130) Bet 0.65u (To Win 0.50u)
Experienced bettors know baseball’s a highly variant sport—I won’t argue that point. That said, the White Sox could blow by last year’s total by 10 games, hit the over, and still not win five in a row. In rare cases when the White Sox actually hold a lead after seven innings, they’ll be turning to a bottom-3 bullpen. As constituted, this bullpen tallied all of three saves in 2024. Who’s slamming the door? And if Prelander Berroa does assume the role and runs with it, will he be dealt at the deadline? My answer to the latter is a definitive “yes.”
Just for the sake of due diligence, I combed last year’s schedule and you guessed it—the White Sox's longest win streak topped out at four. Even if you don’t like this bet enough to tail I beg you as a friend, do not touch any of their overs.
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Look Into My Crystal Ball (Again, Sorry)🔮—Quick Hit Futures Bets, Part Deux
If you missed the original or would like to freshen up on the arguments for these plays, please check out the previous edition of our BL newsletter.
THE BET: Cincinnati Reds Finish Second In The NL Central (+400) 0.25u
I’m higher than the market on the Reds, that’s for sure. That said, I don’t think they catch the Cubs—who not only have Cincy beat in terms of talent, but also will get aggressive at the deadline and possess a nice stable of young starters in the minors. So essentially we’re betting CIN finishes ahead of MIL, which seems to be getting by on brand name only. The Brewers’ lineup is OK, but far from an order of magnitude better than the Reds, whose rotation I’d take straight up over Milwaukee’s in a blink.
THE BET: Cardinals Regular-Season Wins Bands On DraftKings
69-74 Wins (+360) 0.25u
75-80 Wins (+270) 0.25u
Apparently, I have a thing for MLB band plays. Priced very similarly to Pittsburgh, I’m expecting St. Louis to fall short of its 77.5 baseline win total into the 69-80 win range. On minimal risk, we get exposure to the Cardinals’ downside described above with a decent cushion if they somehow overperform and manage to eclipse the over.
CAN ELLY DE LA CRUZ WIN NL MVP?
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