Divisional Round NFL DFS Plays: The Best At Each Position
It's finally arrived. Our last "real" DFS slate of the 2024/2025 season.
After this weekend, we are down to just three more games.
That means we need to take full advantage of this glorious four-game Divisional Round slate with the seven best teams in football plus the Houston Texans.
I'm sorry, that was uncalled for. I'm just tilting my face off over the fact that I chased C.J. Stroud double stacks all year only for them to fail over and over again and now he somehow pulled off the upset over the Chargers and is now responsible for the lowest total game on the slate (41.5).
It should have been the Bengals, ugh … but that's my own issue that I need to work through, not something you need to be bothered by.
NFL DFS Plays For The Divisional Round
For this week's DFS piece, I thought it would be helpful to take a stroll through the best positional matchups at each position using our DvP tool.
Then you can apply these macro matchup boosts however you see fit across your DraftKings lineups, Underdog drafts, and pick'ems/prop bets.
Quarterback NFL DFS Plays For Divisional Round
🏆 The rook ain't done yet
- QB Jayden Daniels (ADP: 17.9; $7,000)
- Lions allow the 7th biggest fantasy boost to opposing QBs (2.5)
There's nothing sneaky about Daniels at this point, but I have noticed some lingering doubt about the Commanders offense in this seemingly tough road spot.
Per our DvP tool, the Lions present the best possible matchup for any QB remaining on the slate. This certainly dovetails with this game having a monstrous 55.5 point over/under and the fact that the Lions defense has allowed at least 31 points in three of their past five games.
Whether you think the Commanders can pull off an upset or not, Daniels offers huge fantasy upside in this environment.
The most bullish indicator for Daniels' fantasy value is the 10 designed rush attempts he had in their Wildcard upset over the Bucs, which led to 36 total rush yards. In case you don't believe me, I've circled the stat for you in green:
His ability to hit on deep shots coupled with this massive rushing role give him a ceiling on par with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
He appears appropriately priced on both Underdog and DraftKings, but I'll be loading up regardless knowing that an overall QB1 finish is well within his range of outcomes.
Running Back NFL DFS Plays For Divisional Round
🏆 Ravens gonna run, run, run
- Ravens RBs Derrick Henry (ADP: 1.6, $8,000) / RB Justice Hill (ADP: 35.7, $4,800)
- Bills allow the 7th biggest fantasy boost to opposing RBs (3.9)
I know no one needs me to tell them that The Big Dog is a good play, but it's worth noting that it's easier to run on the Bills than it is to throw.
And considering the Ravens will enter this road game without Zay Flowers, I'd expect a healthy dose of Henry for as long as this game remains close in hopes of salting away the clock and keeping Josh Allen off the field.
When these two teams met in Week 4, Henry rushed 24 times for 199 yards and 1 TD.
But the more interesting and actionable nugget here might be what this matchup means for Justice Hill.
Hill remains a big part of this offense–he had six rush attempts, four targets, and a receiving TD last week–and can be had for free on both DraftKings ($4,800) and Underdog (ADP: 35.7)
And similar to Daniels, Lamar Jackson could also enjoy success on the ground here. He's coming off a game with a whopping 11 designed rush attempts.
In a perfect world, you'd have at least one of these guys in the majority of your lineups.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Plays For Divisional Round
🏆 Fly Eagles fly
- Eagles WRs: A.J. Brown (ADP: 12, $7000) / DeVonta Smith (ADP: 20.2, $5,600)
- Rams allow the 7th biggest fantasy boost to opposing WRs (3.8)
Of all the popular narratives out there in fantasy football–revenge narrative, birthday narrative, shower narrative–I'm not sure there is one better than the “WR who was forced to read a self-help book on the sidelines after starving for targets in the previous game.”
Not only is this the squeaky wheel of all squeaky wheel games for A.J. Brown, but he also gets the best positional matchup on the slate.
Our betting crew has already identified 4.5 receptions being way too light of a number for AJB this weekend and I want to lean into it for DFS purposes as well.
When AJB faced this Rams team in Week 12, he caught six passes and we have him projected for 7.7 targets and 5.4 receptions this week.
This matchup analysis certainly applies to Smith as well, but I prefer AJB this weekend.
It's worth noting that while the Rams provide the biggest fantasy boost to opposing WRs, a bunch of these Divisional Round teams are susceptible through the air. Feel free to attack any of these defenses:
Tight End NFL DFS Plays For The Divisional Round
🏆 Goedert finds paydirt again?
- Eagles TE: Dallas Goedert (ADP: 26.4, $3,900)
- Rams allow the 7th biggest fantasy boost to opposing TEs (2.0)
Of all of these DvP numbers, TE is probably the least sticky. There's just so much randomness and volatility to fantasy scoring at the TE position because none of these guys see a ton of targets and their ceiling outcomes are directly tied to TDs, which are hard to predict.
That said, I like how things are shaping up for Goedert this weekend. In addition to the best matchup for TEs on the slate, he's coming off back-to-back games with six targets.
He also proved that he has that dog in him with that TD catch where he stiff-armed his way all the way into the paint.
On lineups where I don't have AJB, I'd like to prioritize Goedert as the primary beneficiary of this Rams defense.
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For more Divisional Round DFS strategy, check out my show with the Badge Bros where we did a full deep dive on the Underdog slate.
You can track all of the projected rostership for the NFL DFS slate with our NFL DFS projections, which also include floor, ceiling, and base-line projections for every player on the slate!
