Week 5 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.

I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 5 DraftKings NFL DFS plays, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades. 

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.

Top NFL DFS Stack for Week 5

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy once again leads the league in EPA per attempt and shows that he is the face of efficiency at the QB position. Now the 49ers get a matchup with ARI who, according to the DvP model here at Fantasy Life, allows 20.1 PPR points to QBs and 33.9 PPR points to WR groups. They make for the premier stack on the slate.

For reference, here is how the models at Paydirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:

QB stacks

SF holds the #1 overall QB+2 projection on the slate and the #2 spot as Aiyuk and Kittle project nearly the same. They have a team total of 29, by far the highest on the slate, while sporting a median of around 51 with a salary of around 19k, both depending slightly on which of the two you choose to use.

It is also worth noting that the Top Finish rate for the Kittle combo is 12.70%, around 3% higher than the Aiyuk version. This is because utilizing the TE slot in the QB+2 takes care of a priority position and assumes winning the QB and TE positions, which are overly valuable in NFL DFS. 

The only downside here is ownership, as SF stacks currently project for around 50% owned as a sum which is currently the highest on the slate. Granted, I think that GB stacks (specifically Love/Wicks/Reed) are going to be the highest owned when the cards flip, but I still think you have to care about the ownership on SF a tad.

DFS Value Plays for Week 5

RB: Jerome Ford

This isn’t a sexy play, but I do think Ford makes a ton of sense as a value. His median projection right now is 16.59 and he has a ceiling of 32.33 with a top finish rate of around 9%. Because of his low salary of $5,800, he also has a 4x rate in the simulations at Paydirt of 14.50%, which is the best at the position. His utilization score of 7.71 gives him an expected PPR points average of 14.10, so even based just on usage he makes for a strong value. The cherry on top here is a strong matchup against WAS, who is allowing a fantasy boost of 4.4 PPR points to opposing RBs this year. All signs are strong here!

WR: Darius Slayton

With Malik Nabers out due to concussion, we are going to see Slayton jump in the fold as a deeper target option for NYG. He has already had an 84% route participation but only 11% of the targets, and we should expect both of those numbers to go up this week. His median/ceiling combo of 11.69/24.58 are both the best in the $4k range on DraftKings, and even though his top finish rate is low, he has the best 4x rate of any WR at 24.90%. When you add in that he is likely to be 5-10% owned and about half the ownership of Wan’Dale Robinson (who is a great play on his own), you end up with a great value with strong relative value as well. 

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Sep 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton (86) runs with the ball against Dallas Cowboys linebacker Eric Kendricks (50) during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

TE: Zach Ertz

As is a typical trend for me in this piece, I am not in love with any TE, and that is still the case with someone like Ertz.

However, I think Ertz fits into the value role better than a handful of other TEs and considerably better than the popular options. He projects for 9.28 with a ceiling of 19.91 and a modest 4x rate of 12.80%. His utilization score is 6.23, which is fine, and lands him in the same range as Hunter Henry and Isaiah Likely.

The key here is that he makes for a natural pairing with Jayden Daniels, who has one of the highest projections and value propositions on the slate at QB. Because of the added correlation, I think Ertz is one of the best values at TE to take a chance on.

Week 5 NFL DFS GPP Plays

RB: Kenneth Walker

Walker’s usage is akin to that of Jordan Mason and De’Von Achane but for cheaper, as well as being in a considerably better matchup and game environment. His aggregate projection (Median, Expected, Utilization) is 17.47, which is the third highest of any RB on the slate, only behind Kyren Williams and Jordan Mason. His top finish rate in the Paydirt simulations is 12.30%, and his 4x rate is higher than any RB projected for 15+ points. We should expect SEA to have a lead all game and feed Walker, making him one of the safest options available. 

WR: Ja’Marr Chase

We haven’t really seen Chase dominate the way we expected so far in 2024. He has only one game with 20+ fantasy points and has suffered from some bad QB play and shaky game scripts.

However, this looks like a spot where we should consider him for a couple of reasons. The game environment is strong, as evidenced by the 49.50 game total, and the Bengals are projected to throw 1.43 TDs, which speaks well to Chase’s upside. He projects for nearly 20 fantasy points, the highest mark in the projections, and has a top finish rate of all the WRs of 17.50%. What is most important is he will likely be 5% owned, and when you can get a WR with legit 30+ PPR point upside at such low ownership, you have to take a shot.

He’s a very strong one-off and an even better part of a CIN/BAL game stack.

TE: Evan Engram

I’ve talked a lot this year about aiming to leverage elite TEs that are underpriced, and Evan Engram fits that bill. He is in the mid-$4k range at $4,600 on DraftKings and projects well at 10.09 PPR points. In 2023 he averaged 13.7 fantasy points and a utilization score of 8.2, which was the 4th best combination in the league. He should be back this week and walk right into a target share of 18-20% in a great matchup with IND. I really like him to outpace his salary here and be a strong option in all formats.

Top Fade for Week 5 NFL DFS

You should, under no circumstances, play Tucker Kraft. He is going to be drastically over-owned based on his medians. You can see this visualized in the Pivot Finder over at Paydirt:

Pivot Finder

You could basically play any TE within $300 of him on DraftKings and they would be a better play based on ownership than Kraft. Even if you pair him with Jordan Love, he is going to grade out as a significantly negative leverage play.

TE has been a wasteland this year, and eating a lot of ownership at the position is as bad as playing a 30% owned defense. Let other people make that mistake.