Before we dive into the Week 12 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:

Week 12 sets up as one of the trickier weeks in recent memory.

Outside of the marquee Bills-Eagles game that has a 48.5 point total, there aren’t a lot of “clean” spots for us to target.

With three Thanksgiving games and a Black Friday contest–as well as the usual SNF and MNF games–the main slate is pretty picked over.

This makes the slate feel “gross,” but it also presents us with a ton of opportunity.

Regardless of how good or bad a slate is, 36 players are still drafted in Battle Royale contests. When a slate is bad, the quality of players selected after the elite options are much weaker than usual. 

This also means that the players drafted in the 20-36 range often don’t project much differently than the players going after pick 36, who are rarely selected in drafts.

The end result is that we can draft teams that project equally as well as our opponents while getting them at huge exposure discounts. 

Here’s a very simple example for Week 12:

While the field chases Ridley’s Week 11 box score at a 100% exposure rate, a player who literally projects better is not even getting drafted.

As always, this is the dynamic we are looking to exploit. 

Speaking of Steelers, let’s dive in…

Steelers Stack

  • Diontae Johnson (ADP: 36)
  • Jaylen Warren (ADP: 34.3)
  • Pat Freiermuth (ADP: 35.9)
  • George Pickens (ADP: 36)

I understand why there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for the Steelers this week, but their entire offense is going mostly undrafted on a slate without a ton of high-end options.

There’s also reason for optimism that things could finally be turning around for a team that just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who was dialing up a truly bland scheme that lacked creativity. 

One of the best ways to profit in daily fantasy football contests is to fade concerns about matchups and bet on volume. This is exactly what happened with Saquon Barkley in Week 11 and he rewarded drafters with a tournament-winning score.

We can look to do something similar this week with Johnson (36% target share in Week 11) and Pickens (23% target share in Week 11), who both are earning targets at a high rate.

Here are a few of the WRs going ahead of Johnson and Pickens: Noah Brown, DJ Chark Jr., and Justin Watson. 

This is a dynamic we should be looking to exploit.

Similar to the Jags pieces I liked last week, I don’t want to be double-stacking Kenny Pickett or onslaughting an offense in a game with a 35.5 point total, but I love the idea of scrolling down and selecting a Steeler at the end of my drafts.

Warren, who is emerging as the next Austin Ekeler right now, is a great selection. As is Freiermuth, who should be fully ramped up (only 39% of the routes in Week 11) after returning from IR.

You can target the Steelers in Battle Royale drafts on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

Rashid Shaheed (ADP: 36)

Let’s do a blind item game. Which WR would you rather draft in Battle Royale…

WR A: Week 10 (89% of the routes, 24% targets) and drafted in 100% of Week 11 contests

WR B: Week 10: (81% of the routes, 22% of the targets) and drafted in less than 5% of Week 11 contests

WR A is Chris Olave and WR B is Rashid Shaheed.

Chris Olave vs Rashid Shaheed

Look, I like Olave and he’s a solid play in a vacuum (and you can see above he did earn more EZ targets than Shaheed). But the difference in his profile and Shaheed’s doesn’t come close to warranting a 95+ percent spread in their field exposures.

The dynamic makes Olave nearly undraftable in the Battle Royale contests where only 36 players are taken. He’s a much better selection in the 12-person contests where both he and Shaheed are selected in every draft.

To put it in perspective, Olave would need to outscore Shaheed over 90% of the time to justify the difference in their ADPs and draft rate.

We always want to exploit this angle, but especially so when it involves players who are “boom/bust” by nature like Olave.

Feel free to stack up Shaheed with whichever QB gets the start–Derek Carr (concussion protocol) or Jameis Winston. FWIW, I’ll be much more excited about the play with Winston.

Bonus Gems

A few other guys to scroll down for this week:

  • Josh Jacobs (ADP: 34.9)
  • Gardner Minshew (ADP: 35.9)
  • Tutu Atwell (ADP: 36)
  • Michael Mayer (ADP: 36)

Good luck, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.

Hidden GEms