Before we dive into the Week 13 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:

Week 13 sets up as a tricky slate with so many teams on bye, but there is still plenty of scroll down goodness to be had.

Below I have one player at each position who could be the unique piece that helps you win a tournament.

Let’s dig in…

QB Sam Howell (ADP: 34.6)

This one is pretty straight forward:

  • Howell is currently going as the 7th QB off the board, which means he’s not being drafted in every Battle Royale contest despite projecting similarly to QBs going ahead of him like Justin Herbert and Jared Goff. 
  • This Dolphins/Commanders game has the highest total of the week (49.5) and the fighting Sam Howells are 9.5 point home underdogs:
Dolphins @ Commanders Game Hub
  • Since Week 8, Howell is averaging a wild 51 dropbacks and 46 attempts per game. During that stretch, he’s finished as the QB1, QB10, QB3, QB9, and QB12, indicating both a high ceiling and a high floor.
  • Because the offense is so spread out, there are a variety of creative ways you can stack Howell. Outside of Terry McLaurin (ADP 34.6), the rest of his weapons are going undrafted in most contests. Feel free to mix and match Howell with Logan Thomas (35.2), Curtis Samuel (35.9), Brian Robinson Jr. (35.9), and Jahan Dotson (36).
  • I also think it would be viable to load up on a couple of Miami pieces without Tua Tagovailoa (12.4) and correlate them with Howell instead. 

RB Javonte Williams (ADP: 35.7)

It wasn’t too long ago that the Broncos looked like a historically bad defense and Sean Payton was deploying a vomit-worthy three-way committee.

Flash forward to Week 13 and Denver has rattled off five straight impressive wins and finally consolidated this backfield down to just Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. 

Williams is operating as the true lead back during that stretch, averaging 18.4 rushing attempts and 3.6 targets:

Javonte Williams Game Logs

Perine is also mixing in on some passing downs, but the Broncos have made a clear shift to prioritize Williams and it’s been correlating with wins.

Against a high-flying Texans offense that is slightly weaker against the run than the pass, the Broncos would be wise to heavily feature Williams once again.

From a game theory perspective, Williams also sets up as an awesome leverage play. The field is aggressively stacking all the pieces of this Texans passing offense:

Texans ADP

And when they do involve a Broncos player as a bring back, it’s Courtland Sutton (34.8).

I love the idea of scrolling down for Williams and pairing him in mini-correlations with one of the Texans pass catchers.

I also will have some Russell Wilson this week (likely stacked with both Sutton and Williams) as a way to get access to a juicy game environment. Week after week we see the Texans opponents pushed to new heights as they attempt to keep up. 

WR Josh Downs (ADP: 35.7)

Last week we did a blind item comparing Chris Olave with Rashid Shaheed. That one didn’t break our way, but we need to continue to exploit this dynamic where two WRs with very similar profiles are being valued very differently by the market.

The mainstream media won’t tell you that both Michael Pittman Jr. (ADP: 19.1) and Josh Downs (ADP: 35.7) had 13 targets last week. But because Pittman had the more efficient day, converting his targets into 10 receptions for 107 yards, the field is drafting him in every contest while fully ignoring Downs.

Another reason to scroll down for Downs is his role in the endzone. He narrowly missed a TD last week that would have certainly changed how the field is viewing him heading into Week 13:

Josh Downs vs Michael Pittman

In Week 13 the Colts head to Tennessee to face a Titans secondary that gives up the 9th most fantasy points to WRs. 

Feel free to correlate Downs with Gardner Minshew, or simply take him as a one-off.

He’s one of the easiest clicks in recent memory. Load up. 

TE Juwan Johnson (ADP: 35.3)

Evergreen comment: TE is gross this week. 

George Kittle, Trey McBride, and Sam LaPorta lead the way, but after that, the position is wide open with the TE4 to TE12 not projecting that differently.

This presents us with the perfect spot to largely fade the TE4-6 (Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Schultz, and David Njoku) who are getting selected in every draft, and scroll down for another TE who is rarely getting drafted.

For me this week, that is Saints TE Juwan Johnson, who is currently the TE8 in Underdog ADP.

Here’s what Dwain said about Johnson in his TE Utilization Bytes:

Johnson registered a season-high seven targets on a 19% target share and 85% route participation with Michael Thomas (IR) out and Olave (concussion) and Shaheed (quad) leaving the game with injuries. Johnson offers low-end TE1 potential while the receiving corps is on the mend and is a viable streaming option with six teams on bye.

Shaheed did not practice on Wednesday and Olave is still in the concussion protocol, so a target boost is very much in play for Johnson in this spot. Be sure to check their injury report throughout the week to see the most recent updates.

You can use him as a one-off or as a bring back to Lions pieces.

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