Before we dive into the Week 14 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:

When I review the first wave of ADPs for Battle Royale contests, I’m looking for guys who are undervalued relative to their projection. 

There are then two ways we can leverage undervalued players to our advantage:

  1. By building teams that project for more points than our opponents 
  2. By scrolling down and taking players who are not drafted in every contest

Some weeks when I review the winning lineups–like last week’s Battle Royale winner–the drafter has employed No. 1. They didn’t scroll down for any Hidden Gems, but simply picked up undervalued players and got the combinations correct.

Other weeks, like the week I had two teams in the Top 10, the advantage comes from No .2—scrolling down to find players who aren’t being selected in many of the drafts.

The reason I emphasize these two dynamics is because there are often players who are getting drafted in most contests, yet still project as great values. These players should still very much be part of your portfolio even though they aren’t super sneaky.

A great example for that archetype in Week 14 is Zack Moss, who has an ADP of 31.6. As Dwain outlined in his Rankings piece, Moss has an elite role right now. But because he flopped in Week 13, drafters are not aggressively targeting him. He’s our RB3 currently and yet he’s the 30th player off the board. 

By taking an overweight position on a guy like Moss and sprinkling in one of the Hidden Gems below, you give yourself multiple paths to a tournament-winning score—more projected points *and* unique pieces.

Some weeks I like to give you a player at each position, but this week most of the values that stand out to me are at WR. Here are four hidden WR gems to scroll down for this week…

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WR Puka Nacua (ADP: 35.5)

One of the biggest edges in Battle Royale contests is simply chasing cheap volume. It’s very rare that we get a player with Nacua’s role (30% target share on the season) at these prices.

I understand why it’s happening (bad matchup vs. Ravens, potentially lots of rain in Baltimore, a false flag limited designation at practice on Wednesday), but Puka’s playing at too high of a level right now to fade.

Puka Nacua

Sep 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) runs the ball against San Francisco 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (2) during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It’s also a fool's errand to try to project rain patterns multiple days out. If the weather looks truly bad on Sunday morning, feel free to adjust. 

Even with Cooper Kupp back, Nacua hasn’t had a game with less than seven targets since Week 8. He’s getting used all over the field and is always a threat to break the slate. Had he connected on a few of these sheesh plays from Week 13, he’d be going much earlier in drafts.

I love taking Nacua as a one-off or as a bring-back correlation with Ravens pieces. 

WR Courtland Sutton (ADP: 34.9)

No one wants to touch the Broncos these days, but Sutton has a very Battle Royale-friendly profile right now. Here’s the case for Sutton in Week 14 vs. the Chargers:

  • Clear No. 1 WR on his team (92% route share & 24% target share)
  • 45% endzone target share (9 TDs on the season)
  • Led the league in unrealized Air Yards in Week 13 (153)
  • Gets a Chargers defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to WRs

Yes, the Broncos have shifted more to the run of late, but Sutton has the exact type of boom/bust profile that we want to embrace in these large tournaments.

I think you could draft him as a one-off, utilize skinny stacks with Sutton and Russell Wilson, or play him opposite a Chargers piece like Keenan Allen.

WR Garrett Wilson (ADP: 35.5)

Alright, those first two were easier sells. Now I got my work cut out for me.

No one wants to touch the Jets, especially with Zach Wilson back, I get it. But similar to Puka, we need to be willing to chase volume at cheap prices.

That endeavor is also easier to stomach when we are doing so with a legitimate superstar talent in Garrett Wilson.

Wilson is averaging almost 10 targets per game on the year and now gets a Houston Texans defense that forces teams to throw to keep pace with them. The Jets have recently toyed with moving Wilson into the slot more, which lines up well with the Texans’ weaknesses.

Similar to Sutton, there are plenty of ways this could go wrong, but Wilson is one of the few WRs going in this range who can legitimately drop 25+ points out of nowhere.

He’s the perfect last-round selection if you’ve drafted a “chalky” team by ADP through five rounds and are looking for a piece to differentiate your lineup.

WR Tyler Lockett (ADP: 35.9)

Speaking of boom/bust guys, can I interest you in Tyler Lockett? On the year, Lockett has three Top 10 performances and then a bunch outside of the Top 30.

Lockett is completely overlooked this week due to a tougher matchup vs. the Niners and D.K. Metcalf going nuclear on Week 12, but he’s coming off an 8 target game and is still earning targets down field.

Similar to the other players we’ve highlighted, Lockett’s profile sets him up as very boom/bust. But in a matchup where the Seahawks will be forced to throw to keep up with an explosive Niners team, I’m willing to take some shots on Lockett finally connecting on a few of these deep balls from Geno Smith.

He also sets up as the classic teammate pivot (off Metcalf), like we’ve outlined in previous weeks with Josh Downs vs. Michael Pittman and Rashid Shaheed vs. Chris Olave.

The market is assuming Metcalf outscores Lockett 100% of the time by selecting the former in every draft and the latter in zero. Even if Lockett only outscores him 25% of the time, there’s a huge edge in exploiting that inefficiency.

Lockett works very well paired with a Niners piece because Seattle will need to score points to push San Francisco throughout the game.

Good luck in Week 14, let’s ship these tournaments.

Hidden Gems