Hidden Gems. Week 3 Underdog Battle Royale Value Picks.

Alright, we are now two for two on Hidden Gems calls:

• Week 1: We unearthed one massive Hidden Gem in Brandon Aiyuk, who popped off for 28.9 points.
• Week 2: We called the Lions/Seahawks the matchup to target and the two teams combined for 68 points.

Considering the goal of this piece is to find “hidden gems” (aka longshots) that help vault us to the top of the leaderboards, I’m likely due for some regression. 

But as the saying goes, you never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater. And as the other saying goes, you never stop writing a column you’ve committed to writing each week. 

So without further ado, here are my hidden gems for the Week 3 slate that you should consider scrolling down for in Underdog Fantasy’s weekly draft contests or plugging into your DFS lineups.

As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.

RBs: Joshua Kelley & Gus Edwards

• ADPs: 35+; Drafted less than 10% of the time

We are only two weeks into the season and the RB pool is shrinking quickly as far as finding RBs with true ceilings.

I’d argue outside of the Top 3 RBs on this slate–Tony Pollard, Bijan Robinson, and Travis Etienne–there are legitimate concerns with every other RB surrounding either their projectable volume, talent, or game environment.

This means that RBs 4-12 (who are drafted in nearly 100% of drafts) are very risky bets relative to RBs 13-24 (who aren’t always drafted and don’t project that much differently).

Enter Joshua Kelley and Gus Edwards.

Here’s the case for Kelley:

• Austin Ekeler is unlikely to play again this week
• The Chargers have a 27.5-point team total and play in the highest projected scoring game on the slate:

• Kelley flopped last week against a tough Titans run defense, but still dominated the backfield snaps and rush attempts.
• Similar to the Aiyuk dynamic in Week 1, we can get leverage on the chalkier passing game pieces like Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams, who are drafted 100% of the time
• Because he burned everyone last week, he will not be popular whatsoever

How to utilize: either as a unique piece in Herbert stacks, as a one-off, or in mini-correlations with a Vikings WR

Here’s the case for Edwards:

• Justice Hill is now dealing with a toe injury and could miss Week 3
• The Ravens have a 26.75 team total and are 7.5 point home favorites vs. the Colts
• He split the snaps and rush attempts with Hill in Week 2 and found the end zone once:

• Not only does he have virtually no competition for touches if Hill misses, but this game script sets up for him to get plenty of carries salting the game away in the second half

How to utilize: as a one-off, or in mini-correlations with a Colts WR

Sep 17, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) hands the ball off to running back Joshua Kelley (25) during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

WRs: Tank Dell & Jahan Dotson

• ADPs: 35+; Drafted less than 10% of the time

Let’s break down a few things we know…

We know the Jaguars (26.75 team total) and the Bills (25.25 team total) are projected to score a lot of these points in these matchups.

We also know that these spreads indicate that the Texans (+9.5) and the Commanders (+6.5) will be forced to throw a lot to keep up.

And lastly, we know that these underdog teams have no problem slinging it with their QBs–C.J. Stroud (47 pass attempts in Week 2) and Sam Howell (39 pass attempts in Week 2).

This presents us with a perfect option to bring back our Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence stacks with a sneaky, hidden gem on the other side.

Here’s the case for the rookie Dell:

• Immediately stepped in for the injured Noah Brown last week and posted a 7-72-1 line
• Led the team in targets and nearly matched Nico Collins’ 23% targets per route run:

• Should continue to see his role expand as he gets more comfortable in the offense

How to utilize: as a bring-back to Lawrence stacks or in mini-correlations with Etienne

Here’s the case for the Dotson:

• Dotson has had a quiet start to the season with two PPR finishes outside of the Top 40 (42 and 69), but still has the underlying peripherals that suggest he could pop off in the right spot
• He leads the team in routes (93%), is tied with Terry McLaurin in targets (14%), and has a respectable share of the air yards (25%)

• Despite a very similar usage profile to McLaurin, he’s drafted far less frequently

How to utilize: as a bring-back to Allen stacks or in mini-correlations with James Cook

QBs & TEs

I’m not highlighting any specific one-off QBs and TEs this week because correlation should be dictating the majority of your decisions at the onesie positions.

Outside of the Top 3 TEs (Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Mark Andrews) I want to be correlating my TE either with their QB or their opponents’ QB as a bringback.

I’d also look to prioritize correlating one of my first two WR selections with their QB (i.e. Tyreek Hill with Tua Tagovailoa or CeeDee Lamb with Dak Prescott).

If you’re looking for some sleeper QBs, I do think you could “flip the build” on the sleeper WRs I referenced and stack Stroud with Dell or Howell with Dotson and then bring it back with a player on the Jags or Bills.

Important note: there is nothing wrong with utilizing Terry McLaurin or Nico Collins this week (or the Chargers and Ravens passing games). All of them project well. The point of this exercise is to identify one sneaky hidden gem that can differentiate our lineup from the field while not sacrificing too much projection. 

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