Hidden Gems. Week 4 Underdog Battle Royale Value Picks.
Before we dive into the Week 4 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:
- Week 3: We whiffed on our RBs and Jahan Dotson, but nailed Tank Dell as a piece to scroll down for in Battle Royale contests.
- Week 2: We called the Lions/Seahawks the matchup to target and the two teams combined for 68 points.
- Week 1: We unearthed one massive Hidden Gem in Brandon Aiyuk, who popped off for 28.9 points.
As always, the goal of this piece isn’t to select an entire team full of Hidden Gems–that’s a way to light your entry on fire–but rather give you ideas and levers to pull to ensure that your lineup is unique and has a chance to finish first in large-field contests.
With everyone loading up on Dolphins and Bills (and rightfully so), Week 4 sets up as another great week to get contrarian and hunt for gems in Underdog Fantasy’s contests.
Below, I’ve identified two specific game environments (and 2 QBs and 2 WRs from those games), as well as a sneaky RB, that you should consider scrolling down for in Underdog drafts or plugging into your DFS lineups.
As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.
QBs: Anthony Richardson & Justin Fields
- ADPs: 34+; Drafted less than 20% of the time
Richardson (QB7) and Fields (QB9) are both going outside the Top 6 selections in Underdog contests right now. Neither are “sneaky” per se, but they are beneficiaries of the “QB ADP Cliff” where positional settings limit only 6 QB selections in each draft.
So even though Richardson and Fields project similarly to Kirk Cousins (QB5) and Lamar Jackson (QB6), their popularity is wildly different because people are so anchored to ADP when drafting.
Check out these drafted percentages compiled from Chad’s data:
- Cousins: 75%
- Jackson: 56%
- Fields: 20%
- Richardson: 17%
The discount on Richardson stems from him missing Week 3 with a concussion, but he practiced in full this week and now gets a home start in the game with the third highest total on the slate:
Richardson’s rushing upside and “tushy pushy” TD equity near the goal line make him an awesome selection this week if these sub 20% field exposure numbers continue to hold.
As for Fields, we are getting an “organizational collapse” discount, but if there’s one entity who could single-handedly get an offense back on track, it’s the Denver Broncos “defense” who just gave up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins:
Check out these stats on the Denver defense from PFF (h/t Dwain):
- Overall defense: 40.4 (32nd)
- Run defense: 41.3 (31st)
- Tackling: 28.9 (32nd)
- Pass rush: 63.7 (27th)
- Coverage: 42.0 (31st)
The nice thing about both of these QBs is that you don’t have to force stacks thanks to how much production they derive from their legs, but the potential shootout game environments also make it viable to layer in 1-2 more pieces from the game (read on for some WR/TE ideas).
Bonus: I certainly prefer Fields, but Russell Wilson (35.8) is also a way to attack this spot, especially if you take the Broncos WR I’m going to hype up below.
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WRs: Josh Downs & Marvin Mims
- ADPs: 35.9+; Drafted less than 1% of the time
Downs (36) and Mims (35.9) are two promising rookie WRs producing in completely different ways.
Downs, who Dwain highlighted in the Utilization Report this week and I spotlighted in Thursday’s newsletter, is on the field running routes (79% on the season) and earning targets at a high rate (20%).
Mims, on the other hand, is barely playing (23% of the routes), but flashing extreme efficiency when he is on the field.
Both of these hidden gems offer upside in the two juicy game environments we highlighted above in the QB section.
Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, and Courtland Sutton all project better than the rookies and are solid selections, but there’s a wide gap between how often they are getting drafted relative to Downs and Mims.
Sep 17, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) runs for a touchdown against Washington Commanders safety Percy Butler (35) after a catch in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
It might seem like a leap of faith to bet on guys who haven’t popped big in the box score (Downs) or earned a full-time role yet (Mims), but we need to be one week ahead of the competition to win big bucks in a contest with nearly 68,000 entrants:
RBs: Rhamondre Stevenson
- ADPs: 35.9; Drafted less than 1% of the time
It’s rare that we get a RB with Stevenson’s role and profile this far down the queue. Stevenson is currently sitting as the RB20 off the board in Underdog contests, behind far more debatable names like Jerome Ford, Alexander Mattison, and Roschon Johnson.
Stevenson has yet to explode for a big game (his PPR finishes: 13, 17, 29), but the usage has been rock solid. I know there’s concern about Ezekiel Elliott (16 carries last week) eating into his work load, but Stevenson’s 70% route share in Week 3 and 20 touches indicate that there is a legitimate ceiling here:
James Conner, a back with a similar role to Stevenson, just posted an RB6 performance vs. the Cowboys, totaling 100+ scrimmage yards and a TD.
I love scrolling down for Stevenson this week as a one-off, or mini-correlating him with CeeDee Lamb.
TEs: Correlate!
Last week was the perfect illustration of why it’s important to correlate your TE with their QB or with their opposition’s QB.
Donald Parham, who was going undrafted in most contests, finished as the TE6 on the week thanks to two short TD passes from Justin Herbert. No projection system would flag Parham as a must-play, but when you select Herbert, he immediately becomes an interesting selection that other drafters will naturally pass over.
Outside of the top TEs this week (T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews), I want to find ways to correlate my TE selection so they are the benefit of a QB having a big game, or a game environment going nuts.
If you draft Richardson or Fields and miss out on one of their WRs, don’t hesitate to stack them with Kylen Granson (36) and Cole Kmet (35.8), respectively, both of whom are going undrafted in most contests.
Dalton Kincaid (35.4) with Josh Allen and Chig Okonkwo (36) opposite a Joe Burrow stack would be my other favorite ways to attack the TE position in a sneaky, correlated fashion.
