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Hidden Gems. Week 7 Underdog Battle Royale Value Picks.
Everyone knows the best plays. Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Austin Ekeler. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard.
In this weekly piece, I will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
Before we dive into the Week 7 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:
- Week 6: Rough week, had the wrong QB/TE duo from the Commanders/Falcons game
- Week 5: Resurrection bye week
- Week 4: Fields breakout game vs. the Broncos
- Week 3: Whiffed on our RBs and Jahan Dotson, but nailed Tank Dell
- Week 2: We called the Lions/Seahawks the matchup to target and the two teams combined for 68 points.
- Week 1: We unearthed one massive Hidden Gem in Brandon Aiyuk, who popped off for 28.9 points.
This week sets up as one of the lower-scoring weeks in recent memory. We don’t have a single game with a total projected for over 50 points (Chiefs/Chargers has come down to 48) and four games with a total lower than 40.
With the Dolphins, Eagles, and 49ers off the main slate and the Bengals and Cowboys on bye, we are lacking high-end ceiling options in contests this week.
This dynamic makes it even more viable to scroll down in contests and unearth some gems.
As always, the goal of this piece isn’t to select an entire team full of Hidden Gems–that’s a way to light your entry on fire–but rather give you ideas and levers to pull to ensure that your lineup is unique and has a chance to finish first in large-field contests.
Below, I’ve identified a QB, WR, RB, and TE who are all going undrafted in the majority of contests, but could vault you to the top of the leaderboard in Week 7.
As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.
QB: Geno Smith (ADP: 34.6)
Geno disappointed in Week 6 vs. the Bengals (threw 2 INTs and went 1/5 in the Red Zone), but there are lots of reasons to get excited about a bounce-back in Week 7.
The biggest reason is the Seahawks returning home to face a porous Cardinals defense that continues to give up big scores to both QBs and WRs.
They are near the bottom of the league in almost every possible metric:
- 15.7% Pressure Rate (Last)
- 0.09 EPA/Play (30th)
- 0.13 EPA/Pass (29th)
- 31st in Defense DVOA
Even better, the Seahawks are playing fast, which should give Geno plenty of opportunities to generate big plays.
Despite this sweet setup, Geno is going undrafted in most Battle Royale contests this week while the field is banking on the Seahawks' points coming via Kenneth Walker (ADP 6.9) and DK Metcalf (ADP 18.2).
Both Walker and Metcalf are great plays, but Smith stacks with one (or both) of Tyler Lockett (ADP 31.6) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 36) provide great leverage on the chalkier Seahawks pieces.
I have a hard time remaining unbiased about JSN (my most drafted player in best ball contests over the summer), but things are trending in a very favorable direction and he should have had a TD last week. The big game is coming soon.
WR: Rashee Rice (ADP: 34.6)
If you don’t want to take the JSN plunge, how about the rookie WR tethered to Patrick Mahomes who has elite marks in both targets per route (30%) and yards per route (10th in the league):
Obviously, he’s running nowhere close to the same amount of routes as Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs, but the Chiefs desperately need a playmaker to step up in the passing game alongside Travis Kelce and his efficiency points to an expanded role.
This Chiefs/Chargers projects for the most points on the slate and Rice is an easy stacking candidate with Mahomes that you can select in the last round of drafts.
If you select Mahomes and can’t pull off the rare Kelce/Mahomes stack, Rice is a priority selection in the 6th round.
RB: James Cook (ADP: 35.3)
It’s extremely gross at the RB position this week. After Aaron Jones comes off the board around pick 21, it’s a complete wasteland. But if we dig deep, we can find an interesting play in Bills RB James Cook.
Now let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. Cook’s production has taken a nosedive the past two weeks with the Bills offense looking anemic and Latavius Murray earning a larger share of the RB work:
That said, Cook profiles as a standout selection in Battle Royale for a few reasons:
- With Damien Harris out this week, the backfield will not have a third player siphoning off touches
- Cook is averaging 5.7 yards from scrimmage per touch, which points to his ability to produce explosive plays
- He’s great leverage on his teammate, Stefon Diggs, who is going third overall in contests and will surely be the focal point of the Patriots defensive scheme
When we are trying to scroll down at the RB position, we either want to be buying discount volume (Rachaad White and Najee Harris fit that bill this week) or talented players in good offenses.
Cook is the only back who checks the latter box going after pick 35 this week.
TE: Michael Mayer (ADP: 35.4)
Because only 36 players are drafted in each Battle Royale contest, lots of players go overlooked. Two places to look for good Hidden Gem ideas that are likely going undrafted are:
- Popular punt plays in DFS (that crowd is very good at sniffing out value)
- Trendy waiver wire picks who have recently seen an uptick in usage
Raiders rookie TE Michael Mayer fits the bill for both (he’s $2700 on Draftkings) after seeing his route participation and targets massively spike in Week 6:
His 13 fantasy points were good enough for TE5 last week and yet he’s going off the board as TE9 despite getting to face a Bears defense that is packing it in for 2024.
All of the TEs going around him are merely TD-chasing bets (Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, etc.), whereas Mayer offers both a ceiling and floor if this usage continues in a highly condensed offense.
Fire him up as a one-off TE selection to get unique at the end of your drafts.
You can put these strategies into practice on Underdog Fantasy, where you can ALSO get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 when you sign up for a new account below with promo code LIFE!
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