Before we dive into the Week 8 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:

This is legitimately one of the grossest main slates I’ve ever seen.

We have the Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, and Niners on bye, the Bills and Bengals play on SNF, and we shipped the best game of the week (Dolphins vs. Chiefs) off to Germany.

But ultimately, that doesn’t matter.

We aren’t trying to score the most points, we are simply trying to score more points than our opponents who are all competing with us on the same, QB-desolate playing field. 

While there aren’t as many gold star, “scroll the eff down” plays as there were last week, there are still a handful of contrarian spots to target in DFS contests this week. 

As always, the goal of this piece isn’t to select an entire team full of Hidden Gems–that’s a way to light your entry on fire–but rather give you ideas and levers to pull to ensure that your lineup is unique and has a chance to finish first in large-field contests.

Below, I’ve identified an entire passing offense, a one-off WR, and a couple of RBs who could deliver a tournament-winning performance with very little popularity.

As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.

Week 9 Hidden Gems Stack: Patriots

  • QB Mac Jones (ADP: 36)
  • WR Demario Douglas (ADP: 35.8)
  • TE Hunter Henry or Mike Gesicki (ADP 35.9)

Wait, wait, wait. Before you click away, let me explain. 

After Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson come off the board, it’s a miasma of lukewarm QB plays who all project similarly. As always, this means we should largely be fading QBs 3-6 (Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, and Sam Howell) who get drafted in nearly 100% of contests and instead scroll down to QBs with similar projections who are drafted far less frequently.

Mac Jones

Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) rolls out during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Patriots are decimated at pass catcher with Kendrick Bourne on IR and DeVante Parker in the concussion protocol, but this is an undeniably great spot for the passing game at home vs. the Commanders.

Even before waving the white flag at the NFL trade deadline and shipping off two top defenders, the Washington defense has been getting carved up by opposing offenses.

As Lord Reeb points out here, *every single QB* to face them since the season opener has been a top-10 scorer at the position and scored more points than they had averaged entering the matchup. 

In addition, Matthew Freedman notes that they’ve also given up the second most fantasy points allowed to WRs (35.9 points per game).

That’s where WR Demario Douglas comes into play. The rookie is the best stacking option with Jones after running 80% of the routes and logging a respectable 20% target share over the past two weeks:

Demario Douglas Game Logs

I also like stacking Jones with one of his TEs, Hunter Henry or Mike Gesicki. Both are averaging around 10% of the targets the past two weeks, but should see an uptick in usage with Bourne out of the picture.

You can also mix Rhamondre Stevenson into your Jones stacks as well, thanks to his solid target share. 

The field isn’t going to want to touch any of these players, outside of maybe Stevenson, so the risk/reward proposition here is very good considering how juicy the matchup is for the Patriots passing game.

WR: DJ Moore (ADP: 35.3)

If this week has a “DeAndre Hopkins”-esque slate-breaker (elite WR with QB question marks who pops off), it’s probably D.J. Moore.

Moore is sliding in drafts because his target share dipped to 17% in Week 8 while Cole Kmet led the way, but this is still an elite talent with a 27% target share on the year who now gets to play a Saints team in a dome that just gave up 27 points to the Colts. 

Moore is the exact kind of archetype we should be looking for when we scroll down the board in Battle Royale drafts:

  1. Explosive play-making ability that can break the slate
  2. A gaudy target share

It’s easy to wishcast bigger roles onto guys like Christian Watson or Rashid Shaheed–two other boom/bust players going around Moore–but they can’t hold a candle to Moore’s consistent, volume-earning talent.

Fade the recency bias on Moore, and enjoy the outsized rewards when the target earner gets loose for a big play (or two) again this week. 

RB: Zack Moss (ADP 34.1), Jerome Ford (ADP 35.8)

There are a lot of similarities between these two backs heading into Week 9:

  • Both were legitimately questionable in Week 8, but suited up and performed well
  • Both are on teams that are favorites against bad run defenses

Cardinals @ Browns Game Hub

Colts @ Panthers Game Hub

  • And most importantly, both are going undrafted in the majority of contests

Re: Zack Moss: I’m very high on Jonathan Taylor (ADP: 8.1) this week, but so is everyone else. Moss continues to earn a decent chunk of both the rushing and passing work–as well as the goal-line touches–and represents an awesome way to leverage the field (or your own Taylor shares when you miss out on him in drafts). The Texans RBs had nearly 30 expected points vs. the Panthers last week despite not converting and the Colts offer a far more compelling ground attack.

Re: Jerome Ford. I’m still stunned he played at all last week, which speaks to both his toughness and how much the team wants him out there. As 8.5-point home favorites, the Browns will look to establish it on the ground vs. a Cardinals team led by Clayton Tune. Kareem Hunt will definitely mix in for some touches, but Ford should easily regain control of the backfield in this spot. 

Good luck this week, I’ll see you at the bottom or the top, there’s no in-between.

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Hidden Gems