Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Contrarian option: Philadelphia Eagles

Facts:

  • The Eagles have not looked especially sharp, being taken to OT by WAS in week 4, and yet Jalen Hurts is still top 10 overall in PPR points per game at 21.6, while A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are both top 20 WRs.
  • While the Eagles have not played at a significant pace this year, they face a Rams team that has eclipsed 70 plays in regulation in three of their four games, a stat that can show that PHI may have to up pace to keep up in scoring.
  • While D’Andre Swift is still splitting reps with Kenneth Gainwell, he’s been by far the more productive back, and boasts strong utilization with 47% route participation and a 9% targetshare, making him useful in the passing attack for the Eagles.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack Info

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith): Has the highest Salary of $23,400 with the most promising Median score of 55.89.
  • Combo 2 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/Dallas Goedert): Priced at $20,200 with a Median score of 51.79.
  • Combo 3 (Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert): The most budget-friendly choice at $19,600, yet with a lower Median score of 46.51.

Though all combos have relatively close efficiency rates, Combo 2 slightly stands out as the best value for money.

The combo of Brown and Goedert as stack partners with Hurts saves around $3,000 from the Brown/Smith pairing and still projects above 50 PPR points.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith): Leading with 13.76% Top Finish, 44.88% Top 5 Finish, and a solid 73.28% 2x%.
  • Combo 2 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/Dallas Goedert): Lower top finishing potential (7.40% Top Finish) but a higher 2x% of 78.12% and a significant 1.40% in 4x%.
  • Combo 3 (Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert): Represents the riskiest option with the lowest probabilities in most categories.

Combo 1: High Salary, Balanced Risk and Reward

This combination offers a balanced play with good upside and a robust 2x% performance.

It's suitable for those looking for stability with potential top finishes.

Combo 2: Moderate Salary, Value-Oriented

This middle-ground combination provides great value for its price, as evidenced by its high 2x% and 1.40% in 4x%.

This is an excellent pick for those aiming for a solid score with some upside.

Combo 3: Budget Choice, Higher Risk

Though this is the most affordable option, it comes with inherent risks due to its lower finishing probabilities.

It's a choice for those willing to take on more risk in hopes of a surprising performance.

Popular option: Miami Dolphins

Facts:

  • In week 4, the New York Giants got absolutely obliterated by the Seattle Seahawks, allowing a franchise record 11 sacks, and now have to deal with a MIA team that laid 70 points on a similarly bad Broncos squad a couple weeks ago.
  • The Dolphins receiving group has the highest average catchable target rate in the league, with their four highest snap count receivers averaging a rate of over 82%, speaking to Tua Tagovailoa’s precision.
  • While De’Von Achane doesn’t have the best utilization (averaging just 39% of snaps, 20% of SDD snaps) his expected PPR points are the fifth best in the league at 20.18 per game, just behind Tony Pollard and above Kyren Williams.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Miami Stack

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle): Commands the highest Salary at $23,600, presenting the highest Median score of 55.30.
  • Combo 2 (Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill/Durham Smythe): Moderately priced at $19,100 with a respectable Median score of 47.50.
  • Combo 3 (Tua Tagovailoa/Jaylen Waddle/Durham Smythe): The most affordable option at $17,600, but with the least Median score of 40.55.

Similarly to the PHI stacks from above, Combo 2 offers the best value in terms of points per dollar.

Tua Tagovailoa

Sep 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) drops back to pass against the Denver Broncos in the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Both the Eagles stack and this MIA combination utilize the TE as a value addition, aiming to gain a drop in points with a boost in value and correlation.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle): Leads with 12.48% Top Finish, 41.76% Top 5 Finish, and an impressive 68.48% 2x%.
  • Combo 2 (Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill/Durham Smythe): Lower Top Finish potential (2.12%) but a remarkable 2x% of 75.04% and a good 0.60% in 4x%.
  • Combo 3 (Tua Tagovailoa/Jaylen Waddle/Durham Smythe): This combination represents the riskiest choice with the lowest probabilities across most categories.

Combo 1: Premium Choice with Good Potential

A balanced choice, this combination comes with a good upside and solid 2x% performance.

It's a viable pick for participants seeking consistency with some top finish possibilities though you may have to be cognizant of your ownership levels.

Combo 2: Value-oriented, Best Efficiency

A middle-of-the-road option in terms of price, it provides excellent value and the best 2x% among the choices.

This combination is suitable for participants targeting a dependable score with decent upside.

Combo 3: Most Affordable, Highest Risk

This is the most budget-friendly choice, yet comes with substantial risk due to its lower finishing probabilities. It's an option for those willing to gamble on an unexpected performance.

The Dolphins team combinations span various strategies:

  • Combo 1 provides a balanced approach with some top finish prospects. 
  • Combo 2 stands out as the value pick with the best efficiency.
  • Combo 3 is for those inclined towards taking higher risks.

Considering how bad NYG is, MIA is a lock to score points, and it makes sense to utilize some less traveled paths to their upside.

Value option: Cincinnati Bengals

Facts:

  • With Tee Higgins questionable, the next man up will be Tyler Boyd, who saw an increase in snaps in week 4 leading to a target share of 24% along with 50% of the third/fourth down targets. 
  • Joe Burrow is clearly being inhibited by injury, with career low marks in net yards per attempt (4.18) and QBR (69.1), but every week he makes steps towards recovery, and this matchup with the Cardinals should allow him to operate under less pressure and against the weakest opponent this year.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Bengals stacks

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase/Tyler Boyd): This combination is the most expensive at $18,600 and comes with the highest Median score of 56.87.
  • Combo 2 (Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase/Irv Smith Jr.): With a salary of $17,200, it has a Median score of 48.83.
  • Combo 3 (Joe Burrow/Tyler Boyd/Irv Smith Jr.): This is the most budget-friendly combination at $13,800, with a Median score of 41.38.

Among the combinations, Combo 1 offers the best efficiency, closely followed by Combo 3.

All three offer nearly 3.00 points per dollar or higher in regards to median expectations, so you really can’t go wrong here. The upside is clearly tied to Chase, but there are a lot of good spend ups on this slate if you fade him.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase/Tyler Boyd): Leads with 14.32% Top Finish, a strong 89.84% 2x%, and an impressive 9.64% 4x%.
  • Combo 2 (Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase/Irv Smith Jr.): Moderately priced, it has a Top Finish potential of 3.96%, an 86.08% 2x%, and a 4.72% 4x%.
  • Combo 3 (Joe Burrow/Tyler Boyd/Irv Smith Jr.): The least expensive choice but surprisingly high 2x% of 88.52% and a decent 7.44% in 4x%.

Combo 1: Premium Choice with High Efficiency

This combination strikes a balance between high upside and efficiency. It's an excellent choice for those seeking consistent scoring with substantial top finish potential.

Combo 2: Value Pick with Solid Potential

This option offers a middle ground in price with a commendable efficiency. It provides a reasonable score with some upside, making it a balanced choice for those looking to spend up elsewhere.

Combo 3: Budget-Friendly with Surprising Efficiency

While this is the most affordable combination, its efficiency is commendable. With a high 2x% and a decent 4x%, it's an intriguing option for those on a budget or looking for a contrarian pick.

There are justifiable concerns with CIN in regards to Burrow’s health, but if Tee Higgins misses this game the target tree is just too condensed to ignore.

The price of Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd is not near enough for the median expectations here. Pay attention to the health of Higgins and if he is out fire up this stack.

DFS Stacks